Yield Curve

The market believed that the Fed might not need to hike again because yields were already doing the work of another hike. And that’s when the bond market started laughing.

If the Fed were not so distracted by the ongoing run on regional banks, this nascent recovery in housing might be a cause for concern.

The inversion of the yield curve took another unusual step on Wednesday. It moved into double inversion.

A reliable recession indicator was flashing red alert on Tuesday as 10-year yields fell below two-year.

A recession indicator was tripped for a second time in two days on Friday.

A key market gauge of the risk of future recessions flashed a warning signal on Thursday afternoon.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell apparently figured out that the market had not quite got the message that he intends to be tough on inflation.

The yield curve—the difference in yields for short-term and long-term debt—has sharpened dramatically in recent weeks as investors have sold off bonds maturing five-years or more into the future while shorter-term bonds have held steady.

The Fed said recently that it believes its current target will remain appropriate for the foreseeable future. The market disagrees.

The bond market and President Trump agree: the Fed should cut rates.

Alfredo Ortiz of Job Creators Network writes in The Hill that Democrats’ “the sky is falling” rhetoric about impending recession is merely a desperate attempt to take back the reins of power:

The market appeared to take Wednesday’s inversion in stride. The major stock indexes ended the day in the green.

In the face of rising recession fears, the White House is considering a payroll tax cut aimed at boosting consumer spending.

Long term bond yields have sunk below short term yields, often a signal of economic woes in the future.|

Another indication that the Federal Reserve may be moving rates up too far.