The break-even rate of employment growth — the number of new workers needed on payrolls each month to hold the unemployment rate steady — has collapsed to near zero, according to converging analyses from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
As the Biden immigration-driven labor force disaster is healed by Trump’s immigration policies, breakeven employment falls to historic lows—rewriting the rules for reading jobs data.
Jobs boomed in March, exceeding expectations by nearly 300%.
One year after Liberation Day, with many tariffs only taking full effect mid-year amid heavy front-loading, the policy has delivered measurable results.
The Labor Department said Thursday that new claims for state unemployment benefits dropped by 9,000 to 202,000 in the week ended March 28, from the prior week’s revised level of 211,000.
A year ago, President Trump said he would bring egg prices down. That is a promise made and a promise kept.
The people telling you the labor market is cracking probably failed to update their models for the single biggest structural change in the U.S. labor force in a generation.
American factories expanded at their fastest pace in nearly four years in March, shrugging off a war-driven surge in input costs that has dominated headlines but failed to dent the sector’s momentum.
American consumers came roaring back in February, with retail sales beating expectations across the board and snapping a two-month streak of disappointing readings.
Private employers added 62,000 jobs in March, blowing past the 40,000 gain economists had forecast, according to the ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday.
The JOLTS report looks less like a labor market losing steam than one settling into full employment in a country where the labor force has stopped growing rapidly.
American consumers shrugged off the Iran war and rising gas prices in March, pushing the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index up to 91.8 from 91.0 in February — well above the 87.9 reading economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected. It
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed is inclined to look past the energy shock stemming from the war in Iran.
Speaking to undergraduate economics students at Harvard University, Powell said the standard central-banking response to energy shocks is to wait them out rather than react with policy changes.
This is the Breitbart Business Digest weekly wrap, where we review a selection of the economic and financial events of the past week without incurring any unnecessary labor costs or burning excess petroleum.
Americans’ concerns about energy costs have not increased since the start of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, even as gas prices have jumped nearly a dollar a gallon, according to a Gallup poll released Thursday.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent excoriated the Financial Times on Thursday, calling the British newspaper “tabloid trash” and accusing its journalists of fabricating a story claiming he had praised the Bank of England’s governance structure as a model for tightening oversight
The March survey also suggests some political trouble for the Trump administration and Republicans eight months ahead of the mid-term elections. The index tracking expectations among Republicans fell sharply, from a reading of 100.3 to 94.2.
Rebalancing of America’s international accounts should have been a central policy objective of any presidential administration over the past three decades. The Trump administration, however, is the first to recognize this.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cast the confrontation with Iran as a two-front war on Thursday, telling President Trump that American economic strength has been as critical to the campaign as the military operation unfolding across the Persian Gulf.
While the OECD sees higher headline inflation from rising energy prices, this doesn’t mean higher underlying inflation for the U.S.
Without the assurance of millions of new workers arriving—three million arrived on average in each of President Biden’s final two years in office—employers are deciding to keep current jobholders in place.
Although this week brought what looked like bad news on productivity, the underlying story was much milder than the initial diagnosis suggested.
A swing in investment income drove the largest quarterly improvement in two years.
Mainstream macroeconomists argue endlessly about why America runs trade deficits. The answers they give are deeply unsatisfactory because they are so far removed reality.
U.S. business activity growth slowed to its weakest pace in nearly a year in March as the war with Iran sent energy prices surging and rattled consumer and business confidence, according to a closely watched survey released Tuesday.
The mood on the political right in America has dimmed fast in the early weeks of the war with Iran.
David Simon, who died Sunday at 64 after a battle with pancreatic cancer, was the last of a kind: a builder in an age of talkers, a dealmaker who let the deals speak for themselves, a billionaire who never confused running a great company with saving the world.
Talk of Iran deal sparked a major market rally Monday morning.
This week, we saw Jerome Powell insist that he can be Fed chairman forever or at least until his successor is confirmed, whichever comes first, we guess.
Jerome Powell can stay on the Federal Reserve board. He cannot stay as chairman. And on that question, the law does not give him the choice.
What looked this week like a fresh sign of rising inflation may have sprouted months earlier in the desert around Yuma, Arizona.
Brent crude spiked to nearly $120 a barrel Thursday morning before retreating, as the Iran conflict expanded to threaten major energy hubs across the Middle East. A drone struck a Saudi refinery, and President Trump issued a stark warning that
Stocks at U.S. wholesalers shrank in January, the second consecutive monthly decline, Commerce Department data showed Thursday. Inventories at merchant wholesalers were down 0.5 percent compared with the prior month, according to the seasonally adjusted figures. In December, inventories contracted
Somewhere between the economics department and the checkout line, the great tariff inflation failed to arrive.
“I have no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality. I would refer you to the statement that was in the Fed’s brief that you all have seen. I won’t have anything more for you on that,” Powell said.
The Federal Reserve left its short-term interest rate target unchanged on Wednesday. The decision to hold the benchmark federal-funds rate steady in a range between 3.5 percent and 3.75 percent was approved on an 11 to 1 vote. Fed governor
The producer price index for final demand, which measures prices received by U.S. businesses selling both goods and services to consumers and other end-users, rose 0.7 percent in February.
Saint Patrick’s Day is a $7.7 billion consumer event that is driven by consumption in the most literal sense: eating, drinking, dressing up, and going out.
Global investors turned sharply bearish in March as the ongoing war with Iran and mounting concerns about private credit markets ended months of “frothy optimism.”
