The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released the results of its monthly consumer expectations survey, and the results provided ammunition to both optimists and pessimists.
The perceived chance of voluntarily leaving a job in the next 12 months jumped 2.6 percentage points to 20.8 percent, the highest reading since February 2023.
This week the jobs numbers smashed expectations for the third consecutive month, lots of foreigners went home and lots of federal workers had to get a real job, factory output is growing rapidly, and manufacturing wages are in hot pursuit.
American factory workers haven’t seen this kind of wage growth for decades.
The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent.
The case that tariffs necessarily make American manufacturing less productive died this week.
Seasonal adjustments pushed up jobless claims numbers for last week. But even with the rise, claims have rarely been so low.
AI may well deliver the productivity boom its champions expect. The risk is that the economy has already begun borrowing against that future before the returns have been earned.
New factory orders data released Wednesday confirm an extraordinary surge in American defense manufacturing, with orders for defense capital goods running 53 percent above last year’s pace through the first four months of 2026 as the military works to replenish
American consumers are still spending on big-ticket goods, according to April factory orders data released Wednesday by the Census Bureau, with orders for consumer durable goods running 8.5 percent above last year’s pace and motor vehicle demand surging. Consumer durable
New factory orders data released Wednesday by the Census Bureau show the enormous scale of America’s AI infrastructure buildout, with manufacturing orders for computers, networking equipment, power generation, and cooling systems all surging at double-digit rates compared to a year ago.
Private sector payrolls expanded by more than expected in May.
The forecast that artificial intelligence will lead to mass unemployment took another hit this week as demand for workers rose sharply in April data.
The number of open jobs in the U.S. economy jumped to 7.6 million in April while layoffs declined, evidence of how demand for workers has intensified.
If you are looking at the headline data in the government’s economic report, it is easy to miss the artificial intelligence investment boom.
The Commerce Department’s Census Bureau reported on Monday that construction spending rose 0.4 percent in March, twice as much as expected.
New orders and output measures rose sharply in May.
This week the economy failed to get indigestion from the high price of gas, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told us about getting fed at the Fed, Trump put something new in the app stores, and everyone started dreaming about putting a couple of Donalds in their wallet.
Speaking at the Reagan Presidential Foundation, Bessent delivers what may be the most comprehensive public statement of the Trump economic vision yet.
A closely watched gauge of Midwest business activity posted one of its largest monthly gains on record, suggesting that U.S. economic growth accelerated this spring.
The Commerce Department reported Friday that the goods trade deficit fell to $82.4 billion in April from $85.3 billion in March.
Someone forgot to tell American consumers that they are supposed to be deeply depressed.
Americans kept spending in April even as gasoline prices continued to surge, a sign that higher energy costs have not forced a broad retreat in household outlays.
The personal consumption expenditures price index moved up 0.4 percent last month compared with March, according to the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. Economists had forecast the index would rise by 0.5 percent.
Gloom and doom is everywhere these days — except in the economic data or in business planning meetings.
The Atlanta Fed’s Survey of Business Uncertainty showed firms expected sales revenue to rise 5.1 percent over the next 12 months in May.
Americans are increasingly gloomy about the U.S. economy.
High gas prices and fears of broader inflation are dragging down how Americans feel about the economy.
Oil prices fell sharply and global stocks jumped on Monday as investors cheered the prospects of a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran.
The dominant view on Wall Street is that Kevin Warsh’s Fed is going to have to raise rates rather than cut them, likely as early as this year.
Both short-term and long-term inflation expectations are climbing as consumers fear price increases will not be confined to gasoline and energy.
The AI investment boom is now large enough to show up across the economy.
Higher gas prices are not being passed on to Walmart customers, hurting the companies earnings and forecasts even as sales continue to rise.
The U.S. economy has come to an unusual crossroads. Productivity is accelerating, the labor market remains historically tight, and workforce growth has stalled.
Rising expectations of inflation give the Fed another reason to stay on hold.
With only five and a half months to go before the midterm elections, Republican optimism about the economy is struggling against the tides of high gasoline prices, the renewed rise in inflation, and a market increasingly convinced that interest rates are not coming down soon.
Fears of inflation and forecasts of Fed hikes have sent bonds plunging, lifting yields on Treasuries to multi-year highs.
Pending home sales climbed in April, the third straight month of rising sales. The number of homes going under contract for sale rose 1.4 percent compared with the previous month, surpassing economist forecasts for a one percent gain. Sales are
Rate cuts are usually defended as insurance against recession. The incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh can defend them as insurance for productivity.
Everyone thought Powell was out as chair. But in a late Friday move, the Fed has declared he’s sticking around.
