Breitbart Business Digest: The Dot Thickens Ahead of the Fed Announcement
All eyes will be on the dots tomorrow when the Federal Reserve releases its quarterly economic forecasts known as the Summary of Economic Projections, or SEP.
All eyes will be on the dots tomorrow when the Federal Reserve releases its quarterly economic forecasts known as the Summary of Economic Projections, or SEP.
Buckle up and return to your seats. There’s likely to be some turbulence ahead.
A week ago, the Fed Funds futures market implied a 4 percent chance of a 75 basis point hike. Now it implies a 90 percent chance.
Instead of a hike every other meeting, the swaps market now projects a series of consecutive hikes through the middle of this year.
The futures market now implies that there is a 100% chance the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points by the end of the next meeting.
The futures implied odds of a rate cut in next month’s Fed meeting jumped to more than 70 percent on Thursday morning.
The Fed said recently that it believes its current target will remain appropriate for the foreseeable future. The market disagrees.
The odds implied by futures markets now favor a cut in October and another in December. Even January is now in play.