While we cannot say for sure that the death of the soft-landing and the market sell-off was caused by Kamala Harris, surely anyone investigating the matter should consider the vice president a person of interest.
It looks like the market is finally going to get what it has wanted for over a year—a rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
The manufacturing sector is actually in a serious slump deep enough that it threatens the labor market, the construction sector, and growth in the broader economy.
Donald Trump on Wednesday threw a monkey-wrench into the plans of Democrats to claim he wants to cut Social Security when he proposed ending federal taxes on the benefits of retirees.
Kamala Harris has entered the presidential race burdened by her deep ties to the widely disliked Biden economy.
Will Fed officials stick by their forecast of a single rate cut this year or capitulate to financial markets that are pricing in multiple cuts this year?
Kamala Harris should be very worried about consumer sentiment. Unless she can inspire a sharp increase in economic confidence, she is likely to lose the presidential election in November.
Economic growth picked up more than expected in the spring, not only undermining the case for rate cuts but also raising the possibility that the Federal Reserve still has not done enough to cool the economy off to bring inflation down to its two percent target.
The resurgence of claims that Donald Trump’s proposal for a 10 percent across-the-board tariff amounts to a tax on the American middle class calls for a deeper dive into why these assertions miss the mark.
Kamala Harris has been a fervent supporter of Joe Biden’s unpopular economic policies, which makes it hard to convince Americans that things will change if they vote for her.
The announcement that President Biden has halted his campaign to seek a second term puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to hold off on interest rate hikes until after the election.
What is it going to take to move the market off its conviction that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September?
In an act of political expediency veiled as economic policy, the Biden administration this week announced its support for national rent control.
President Joe Biden on Tuesday unveiled a national rent control scheme capping annual rent increases at $55.
The federal funds futures market now implies a near certainty—a 98 percent chance—that the Fed cuts at its September meeting and then over a 90 percent chance that it cuts again in either November or December.
There was a brief explosion of interest on Monday morning in the idea that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates at its July meeting. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell effectively shot down the idea on Monday afternoon.
An inflation election highly favors Republicans.
A Fed rate cut on the eve of the election would inevitably be seen as a partisan political gift to incumbent Joe Biden and would invite backlash from Republicans.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell explicitly refused to offer forward guidance about interest rate policy in his Capitol Hill testimony this week, which we think is an indication that a rate cut in September is unlikely.
The latest polling indicates that Republicans are well-positioned to take advantage of voter unhappiness about inflation and the U.S. economy and that these issues may be decisive in November.
As the political class debates whether Joe Biden is going to actually get nominated by the Democrat Party, much of America is dealing with a new reality: fast food is no longer synonymous with cheap food.
The U.S. economy generated 206,000 new jobs in June, but even leftist and establishment media were quick to acknowledge that the overall numbers were not all that great.
It’s Independence Day in the year 2024. That means it’s time to gather with family, fire up those grills and smokers, and talk about inflation.
Is the U.S. manufacturing sector expanding or contracting? It depends who you ask.
President Biden demonstrated again last night that he is completely untethered from the truth about the American economy and unprepared to discuss the nation’s economic challenges.
Trump has a chance to defend his title of “Tariff Man” in tonight’s debate. We’re hoping he takes it.
Wall Street and the Federal Reserve have been wrong about a lot of things over the last few years. And now it looks like they’re going to be wrong about how long inflation will stay high.
The biggest underpriced risk in the market is still a hike from the Federal Reserve.
The economic pessimism among younger voters poses a political problem for Joe Biden, but there could be a hidden silver lining in all of this youth dissatisfaction with the economy and especially inflation.
On the same day we learned that Biden’s economy has priced most Americans out of the housing market, we also discovered that Los Angeles is building luxury housing for the homeless.
Biden’s approval rating on the economy among Hispanic voters has cratered, a development which will almost certainly have serious implications for his re-election campaign.
If Joe Biden loses his bid for a second term as president, the state of the economy and his economic policies are almost certain to be recorded in the history books as primary reasons voters turned against him.
The Fed has finally come around to the idea that interest rates are very likely to be higher for as far as the eye can see.
All eyes will be on the dots tomorrow when the Federal Reserve releases its quarterly economic forecasts known as the Summary of Economic Projections, or SEP.
Why is the public so unhappy with President Biden’s economic leadership?
We have been saying for a few weeks that the softness in the April numbers looked like a “blip” and that the economy appeared to rebound in May. The jobs numbers confirm that view, and we expect that will not be lost on Fed officials when they meet next week.
As the Federal Reserve prepares for its June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, speculation is rife about its next move.
May brought a surprising burst of vitality to the U.S. economy, with robust reports from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and S&P Global.
Those looking at the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) and seeing it as a roadmap to a July rate cut have taken a wrong turn.
Our view that the Fed would not cut rates this year has gone mainstream.
