Jobless Claims Signal Unusually Strong Job Security

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Initial claims for jobless benefits fell last week, pushing the four-week moving average deeper into historically low territory and signaling that layoffs remain scarce across the U.S. labor market.

The Labor Department said Thursday that new claims for state unemployment benefits dropped by 9,000 to 202,000 in the week ended March 28, from the prior week’s revised level of 211,000. The four-week moving average, which smooths out weekly volatility and is often seen as a better guide to labor-market conditions, fell by 3,000 to 207,750.

That left the four-week average in roughly the bottom four percent of readings in data going back to 1967. Outside of this year’s earlier readings, claims have not been this low since January 2024.

The latest report suggests employers are still holding on to workers even amid market volatility, slower growth at the end of last year, and concern over rising fuel prices. Initial claims are widely viewed as a proxy for layoffs, and the latest figures indicate separations remain unusually limited by long-run standards.

Continuing claims told a slightly more mixed story. The number of Americans already receiving unemployment benefits rose by 25,000 to 1.841 million in the week ended March 21. But the four-week moving average for insured unemployment fell by 7,500 to 1.83875 million, the lowest level since September 28, 2024. The insured unemployment rate held at 1.2 percent.

The unadjusted data also pointed to a firm labor market. Actual initial claims, before seasonal adjustment, fell by 1,932 to 184,845, even though seasonal factors had anticipated an increase. There were 200,081 unadjusted initial claims in the comparable week a year earlier.

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