Consumer inflation expectations held steady in November while perceptions of job security reached their strongest level of the year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations released Monday.
Median inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.2 percent at the one-year horizon, while holding steady at 3.0 percent at both the three-year and five-year horizons. The perceived probability of losing one’s job fell to 13.8 percent, the lowest reading in 2025.
Mean unemployment expectations—the average probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—improved slightly, decreasing 0.4 percentage points to 42.1 percent.
Taken together, these measures suggest that tariffs are no longer expected to push inflation higher and workers are becoming less worried about their jobs.
Despite these improvements in inflation and labor market expectations, perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated notably. A larger share of respondents reported their households were worse off compared to a year ago, while fewer reported being better off. The share saying their current situation was worse than a year ago rose to 39 percent, the highest level in two years.
Expectations about year-ahead financial situations also deteriorated slightly, with fewer respondents expecting their households to be better off a year from now.
Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago also worsened. The net share of respondents who expect credit will be easier to obtain a year from now decreased.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point at its meeting this week. The deterioration in financial sentiment and credit access perceptions comes as the Fed has maintained restrictive monetary policy for an extended period, with the federal funds rate still elevated despite recent cuts.
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