The election of Donald Trump has sparked a wave of optimism across America’s agricultural heartland, with farmer sentiment reaching its highest level in more than three years, according to the latest Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.
According to the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, the overall index surged 30 points to 145 in November, driven by significant improvements in expectations for both current conditions and the long-term outlook.
The Future Expectations Index jumped 37 points to 161, while the Current Conditions Index rose 18 points to 113. The combined effect propelled the barometer to its strongest level since May 2021.
The survey, conducted from November 11 to 15, highlighted a sharp shift in sentiment as farmers anticipated a more favorable regulatory and tax environment under the new administration. James Mintert, director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture, noted the election’s impact on optimism in the sector. “The post-election survey reflects a substantial change in expectations for the future,” Mintert said in the report.
Improved Expectations for Regulation and Taxes
The survey revealed a striking reversal in farmers’ outlook on environmental regulations. In October, 41 percent of respondents believed agricultural regulations would become more restrictive over the next five years. By November, that figure had dropped to just 9 percent, while a majority—55 percent—expected regulations to become less restrictive. This marked a significant departure from the mood surrounding the 2020 election.
Farmers also reported greater stability in their expectations for tax policy. More than half of those surveyed predicted that income and estate tax rates would remain unchanged in the coming years, compared with significantly lower confidence levels in the wake of the 2020 election.
Capital Investments and Financial Prospects
The survey captured a growing willingness among farmers to make major investments in their operations. The Farm Capital Investment Index rose 13 points to 55, the highest reading since May 2021. Twenty-two percent of farmers said it is now a good time to make large investments, up from 15 percent in October. The shift in sentiment aligns with improved expectations for farm financial performance in 2025, as reported by the survey.
One-third of respondents said they expect their operations to be in better financial shape a year from now, compared to just 19 percent in October. Optimism extended further into the future, with 52 percent of farmers saying they expect widespread good times for U.S. agriculture over the next five years, up from 34 percent the prior month.
Trade Uncertainty Persists
Despite the optimism, farmers remain concerned about trade risks. Forty-two percent of respondents said they believe a trade war that significantly reduces agricultural exports is “likely” or “very likely.” International trade plays a critical role in the U.S. agricultural economy, and any disruptions could temper gains from improved domestic policy conditions.
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