Consumer Optimism—Especially Among Republicans—Surged On Eve Of Election

Consumers felt a bit worse about the economy under the Biden-Harris administration in early November but became much more hopeful about the future on the eve of Donald Trump’s seismic victory in the contest for the White House.

The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment rose to 73,0, up from 70.5 in September. This was a bigger improvement in sentiment than economists expected.

The boost to sentiment came entirely from the expectations portion of the index. The gauge of current conditions registered a decline while the index of consumer expectations soared.

Although the surveys that go into the index were concluded on Monday, the day before the election, they appear to reflect a burst of hopefulness on the part of many Americans that the economy would improve with a changing of the guard in the White House. The expectations index among Republicans jumped from 61.4 to 72.0, the highest reading since November of 2020.

Expectations among Democrats, which was already much higher, rose slightly. Among independents, there was a small dip in the expectations index.

On current conditions, there was an large decline among independents and a significant decline among Republicans. Democrats alone saw an increase in the current conditions index.

The survey indicates how much of Trump’s victory was a result of rising hope. The next release, scheduled for Nov. 22, will include data from surveys taken after the election.