Has Donald Trump’s Once Unshakeable Economic Advantage Vanished?
A poll released this week by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research suggests that Kamala Harris has closed the gap on the key issue of the economy, which all polls agree is the top issue for a plurality of voters in this election.
The headlines appear dire.
“Registered voters are split on trusting Harris or Trump to handle economic issues,” the Associated Press said, claiming that “the findings reaffirm that Trump has lost what had been an advantage on the economy, which many voters say is the most important issue this election season above abortion, immigration, crime, and foreign affairs.”
The poll shows Harris leading on the cost of housing, with 42 percent saying they trust her to handle the issue better and 37 percent saying they trust Trump. On jobs and unemployment, Harris has the edge with 43 percent versus Trump’s 41 percent. On taxes on the middle class, Harris comes out ahead with 46 percent to Trump’s 36 percent. On the cost of groceries and gas, Trump ekes out the lead with 42 percent to Harris’s 40 percent.
Don’t Panic: Trump’s Probably Still Ahead on the Economy
If the AP-NORC poll is accurate, this should be a major cause of concern for the Trump campaign. Voters are highly unhappy with the economy—62 percent say it is in poor condition according to AP-NORC—and Trump’s hopes for victory are likely to turn on voters believing he will be a better steward for the economy than Harris.
Fortunately for Trump and his supporters, there’s good reason to be skeptical of the results of the AP-NORC poll: it is badly out of sync with other surveys of voters, and it has been for quite a while now.
A month ago, the AP-NORC poll found that Trump and Harris were basically tied on the economy. “Going into November’s election, neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump has a decisive edge with the public on the economy, turning an issue that was once a clear strength for Trump into the equivalent of a political jump ball,” the AP reported.
That poll is an outlier. Most other polls continue to find that Trump has a significant advantage on the economy, even if it has narrowed since Harris replaced Joe Biden at the top of the Democrat ticket.
Here’s a rundown of what the other polls are telling us:
- The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, released Tuesday, found that Trump leads on the economy 46 percent to 38 percent.
- Gallup’s latest poll found 54 percent of registered voters trust Trump more on the economy, compared with 45 percent for Harris.
- An ABC News/Ipsos poll found more Americans trust Trump than Harris to handle the economy, giving Trump an eight percentage point advantage at 46 percent to 38 percent. On inflation, it found a seven percentage point advantage for Trump, at 44 percent to 37 percent.
- A CBS News/YouGov poll found that among voters who say the economy will be a major factor in their vote—which the poll says includes 88 percent of voters—Trump leads 53 percent to 47 percent.
- A survey by YouGov for the Economist found that 42 percent of registered voters say the economy will get better under Trump, and 34 percent say it will get better under Harris.
- A Washington Post poll of voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin found that 51 percent say Trump would do a better job handling the economy, and 36 percent say Harris would. On inflation, Trump leads 49 percent to 33 percent.
- A poll of voters in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by Redfield & Wilton Strategies in partnership with the Telegraph found that Trump has the lead in each of those states on the economy but is tied in Nevada.
- The Wall Street Journal’s poll of registered voters in battleground states has Trump ahead across the board, 50 percent to 40 percent. In Arizona, Trump leads 48 percent to 42 percent. In Georgia, it’s Trump at 51 percent to Harris’s 39 percent. Michigan: 49 percent Trump versus 42 percent Harris. North Carolina: 52 percent Trump, 37 percent Harris. Nevada: 54 percent Trump, 38 percent Harris. Pennsylvania: 51 percent Trump, 40 percent Harris. And Wisconsin: 47 percent Trump, 43 percent Harris.
- The New York Times/Siena poll of voters in Pennsylvania has Trump trusted more on the economy by 55 percent and Harris at 42 percent. In Arizona, Trump is at 58 percent to Harris’s 39 percent. In Wisconsin, the Times has Trump up nine points, 53 percent to 44 percent. In Michigan, Trump is up 13 points, 55 percent to 42 percent.
Is it possible the AP-NORC poll has caught on to something all these polls have missed? Yes, it is possible, but that is unlikely. Instead, it’s more likely that the AP poll is not accurately reflecting voter views and that the rest of the polls are better capturing how people view the candidates and the economy.
In other words, Trump very likely retains his advantage on the economy two weeks ahead of the election.