Democrat Economic Optimism Surges on Hope for Harris

The rise of Kamala Harris to the top of the Democratic ticket and to the lead in many national opinion polls appears to have given a sizeable boost to the economic confidence of Democrats.

The University of Michigan’s survey of consumer sentiment inched up in August, rising 2.3 percent above the July reading. This was largely due to a boost in the expectations measure, which asks how consumers view prospects for their own financial situation, the prospects for the broader economy over the near term, and the long-term direction of the economy, especially among Democrats.

The Democrat expectations gauge rose 15 percent in August, likely a result of the surging prospects of Harris’s campaign. The Republican expectations measure fell by 4.8 percent. Among independents, the expectations metric increased three percent.

Among all consumers, the expectations measure climbed 4.7 percent.

Views of current conditions were also divided politically. Among all consumers, current conditions index fell by 2.2 percent. Democrat impressions of current conditions improved slightly, while Republican views of the current state of the economy plunged nearly 21 percent. The index among independents increased by 5.1 percent.

“Sentiment this month reflects a slight rise in sentiment among Independents, as Democrats and Republicans offset each other almost perfectly. Democrats exhibited a large 10% increase in sentiment while Republicans posted an equally sized decline. These patterns resulted from a sea change in election expectations this month with Harris emerging as the Democratic candidate for president,” said Joanne Hsu, the director of the survey.

The economy is the number one issue for a plurality of voters and has favored Donald Trump throughout the election cycle.  But recent polls show Harris gaining ground on Trump on the economy, including one poll for the Financial Times that had her slightly ahead of Trump. That poll’s results, however, have not been confirmed elsewhere. An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll taken in August found Trump had a nine-point lead on the economy and inflation.

More positive views about the economy are likely to help Harris.  Currently, he leads by 61 percent to 33 percent among those who rate the economy negatively, according to the ABC News poll. Harris leads by 89 percent to Trump’s eight percent among those who view the economy positively.