Recession Fears Ease Among Those Who Don’t Think We’re Already In One

Americans who do not think the economy is already in a recession are growing less convinced that we are headed for a downturn.

Most Americans think we are already in a recession, polls indicate. The Economist/YouGov poll taken between August 20 and 23rd shows that 58 percent of Americans say the economy is already in a recession, down slightly from the 61 percent who said so at the end of July.

Twenty-two percent of Americans say we are not in a recession, up from 18 percent. And among that group, fewer now say that a recession is likely over the next 12-months.

Seven percent say a recession is very likely and another 37 percent say it is somewhat likely. Twenty-six percent say it is not very likely and five percent say it is not at all likely. Twenty-four percent say they are not sure.

In the July 30-August 2 poll, 12 percent said a recession is very likely and 43 percent said a recession is somewhat likely. Nineteen percent said a recession is not very likely and four percent said it was not at all likely. Twenty-two percent were not sure.

There was a big shift among Republicans. Seventy-six percent of Republicans say the economy is in a recession now, down from 82 percent. The share of Republicans saying we are not in a recession rose from seven to nine percent. The share saying they are not sure rose from 11 percent to 15 percent.

Among those Republicans who say we are not in a recession, the share saying we’re very likely to fall into a recession dropped from 20 percent to 12 percent. The somewhat likely share held steady at 38 percent. Not very likely inched up to 18 percent from 16 percent. Not at all likely fell from eight percent to three percent.

There was a big jump in Republicans who say they are not sure. This went from 18 percent earlier to 29 percent in the latest poll.

Democrat views moved as well. The share saying we are not in a recession rose from 27 percent from 35 percent, drawing all the additional points out of the “not sure” category, which fell from 29 percent to 21 percent. The “yes” share remained unchanged at 44 percent.

The very likely share among the “no” Demcorats dropped from 11 percent to four percent. Somewhat likely fell from 42 percent to 38 percent. Not very likely jumped from 21 percent to 34 percent. Not at all likely jumped from 3 percent to 7 percent. Not sure fell from 23 percent to 17 percent.

Among independents, 58 percent say we are in a recession, down from 61 percent. Eighteen percent say we not in a recession, unchanged from the prior poll. Among the no recession independents, the share saying a recession is very likely ticked up from nine percent to 10 percent. Somewhat likely fell from 45 percent to 36 percent. Not very likely rose to 20 percent from 18 percent. Not at all likely was unchanged at four percent.