Americans expect to spend an average of $837 on gifts this holiday season, a Gallup poll released Tuesday showed.
That’s just under four percent more than last year’s $805 figure, slightly above the average annual increase of 3.4 percent.
But with inflation running higher this year than in most prior years, people may actually wind up buying less. As of September, the Consumer Price Index for all items was up 5.4 percent compared with a year ago.
Holiday spending is down compared with the prepandemic era. In 2019, shoppers estimated they would spend a record $942. The equivalent in today’s dollars would be $1010.73.
Citing data from the National Retail Federation, Gallup says that holiday shopping tends to rise a bit each year, rising five percent in good years and two percent in weak years. Since 2000, spending declined in just two years, 2007 and 2008.
Spending estimates, however, have declined more frequently.
“Caution is always warranted in interpreting the October figures, as Americans’ spending intentions can change as the season progresses. Changes in national economic metrics like the stock market and unemployment reports can affect consumers’ psychology, as can policy actions out of Washington and, more recently, of course, the pandemic,” Gallup wrote in a story accompanying the poll results.
Sixty-four percent of Americans plan to spend the same amount on gifts this year as they did last year. Twenty-two percent plan to spend less, while 13 percent predict spending more.
Gallup has been polling Americans about holiday spending plans since 1989. It conducts a second poll in November to gauge the change in shopping plans.
Last week, the National Retail Federation said Americans plan to spend around $648 on gifts, slightly below last year’s forecast. As Breitbart News reported, that means holiday spending would contract in real terms.