The Atlanta Fed’s real-time GDP estimate jumped to 9.5 percent on Wednesday, up from 4.5 percent a week ago.
The GDPNow tracker takes economic data points as they’re released and plugs them into a formula that attempts to project GDP for the current quarter. It can be very volatile and has had a tough time estimating growth as the economy has been buffeted by the pandemic and huge government spending programs aimed at boosting the economy.
The gauge was boosted by big gains in expected consumer spending and private inventory investment, as well as smaller gains for residential investment and business capital spending. Wednesday saw data coming in hotter than expected on inflation, retail sales, and industrial production.