American consumers held back on purchases in November and October as the surging coronavirus infections and renewed restrictions on businesses limited early holiday shopping.
U.S. consumer spending fell 1.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted $546.5 billion in November, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Economists had expected a much shallower decline of just three-tenths of a percent.
The data released Friday also showed the recovery in spending as the economy reopened snapped earlier with a decline of one-tenth of a percent in October to $552.5 billion. Initially, October had been reported as the sixth consecutive monthly gain.
Excluding vehicles and gasoline, retail sales were expected to tick up two-tenths of a point in November. Instead, they fell by eight-tenths to $398.6 billion. The prior month was revised to show a one-tenth of a point decline instead of the two-tenths gain initially reported.
In other words, retail sales fell by more than expected from a lower starting place than previously thought.
The U.S. government uses what is termed the control group—which excludes receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes, and tobacco stores—to calculate economic growth. Economists forecast a one-tenth of a percent rise but on Wednesday the data showed a 0.5 percent decline. October’s control group figure was revised down to a 0.1 percent decline from the initial report of 0.2 percent growth. The worse-than-expected November figure and October revision will likely trigger downgrades in fourth-quarter GDP estimates.
Compared with a year ago, overall retail sales are up 4.1 percent. Year to date, retail sales are up three-tenths of a percentage point compared with the first 11 months of 2019, to $5.641 trillion.
Shoppers pulled back on purchases at clothing stores, producing a 6.8 percent seasonally adjusted decline for the month. That followed a 3.4 percent decline in October. Year to date, consumer spending in clothing shops is down 28.5 percent, making it the worst hit type of store during the pandemic.
November is usually a big time of year for clothing store purchases and so the seasonal adjustments do a lot of work in the month. The unadjusted figure rose 4.7 percent from October’s $19.234 billion to $20.153 billion.
Spending at bars and restaurants fell four percent in November and five-tenths of a point in October. Year to date sales are down 19.4 percent.
Electronics and appliance stores saw a 3.5 percent monthly decline last month and a 1.1 percent rise a month earlier. Year to date sales are down 14.1 percent.
Department stores sales dropped 7.7 percent in November and fell 4.9 percent in October. Year to date, sales are down 17.5 percent.
Spending at grocery stores rose 1.9 percent for the month after falling 0.6 percent in October. Year to date, grocery store sales are up 11.4 percent as consumers have been eating more at home during the pandemic.
Home improvement and gardening store spending rose 1.1 percent in November and is up 13.4 percent year to date. Here, however, the seasonal adjustments work in the opposite direction of clothing stores, inflating the numbers in a time of year that typically sees sales decline. Unadjusted sales declined by 7.3 percent.
Spending at sporting goods and hobby stores fell 0.6 percent in November and 0.8 percent in October. Year to date sales at these stores are up 4.3 percent.
Online sales were surprisingly flat, with the category of “nonstore retail sales” rising just 0.2 percent in November after an October rise of 2.4 percent. Year to date, nonstore sales are up 22.6 percent.
Sales of cars, trucks, and parts fell 1.7 percent after a flat October. Year to date, sales are flat with last year.