New York Manufacturing Business Optimism Hits Highest Level in a Decade

Maybe the recovery will be v-shaped.

A measure of business activity in New York state released Monday indicated the economy was no longer in sharp contraction, defying economists’ forecasts for a third consecutive month of deterioration.

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed its general condition index rose a sharp 48 points to negative 0.2 in June. Readings that close to zero indicate steady business conditions.

Economists had expected the index to rise from negative 48.5 to around negative  30, a level which would indicate a shrinking economy.

Firms were optimistic that conditions would be better in six months, with the index for future conditions rising 27 points to 56.5, its highest level in more than a decade.

The survey’s gauge of new orders showed around 36 percent of manufacturing businesses said orders were up while 35.3 percent said orders were own, suggesting that orders were likely unchanged for the month. That is a big improvement from May, when the survey showed 60.2 percent citing falling orders and just 17.8 percent said orders were rising.

Similarly, the share of businesses saying shipments were up rose from 18 percent in May to 39.6 percent in June. The number saying shipments were down fell to 36.3 percent from 57. The New York Fed said this indicated shipments had “inched higher” for the month.
The measure for employment also improved slightly for the month but still indicated falling payrolls.