Economists Think China’s Growth Will Suffer A Steep Coronavirus Drop

Growth in China’s economy is likely to be severely held back by the coronavirus, HSBC said Thursday.

The bank lowered its estimate for the first quarter growth from an annualized rate of 5.8 percent to 4.1 percent. The bank’s estimate for full year growth was lowered by half a percentage point from 5.8 percent to 5.3 percent.

That is significantly lower than the 6 percent growth China’s government has forecast. That forecast was issued prior to the coronavirus outbreak.

Nicholas R. Lardy, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, estimated on Tuesday that first-quarter growth could fall as low a 4 percent, according to Reuters.

Economist Gary Hufbauer, also a senior fellow with the Peterson Institute for International Economics, recently said that a “conservative estimate” would be to bring full-year growth down to 5 percent.

The impact on the U.S. is still not seen as very large. The Wall Street Journal‘s monthly survey of economists found 83 percent of economists expected the coronavirus outbreak will have a small impact on U.S. economic growth from January to March. Just 5 percent said they expected a sizable impact.