“When you are vulnerable, make the enemy think twice about attacking you.”
That is the beginning of one of the tactics contained in Thirty-Six Strategems, the 300-year-old compilation of deceptive strategies that is highly influential with China’s leadership. The tactic is called “The Scheme with the Empty City” or “The Empty Fort Strategy.” It comes at the end of the essay, where advice is given for desperate situations.
The basic idea is that when the enemy’s triumph appears almost inevitable, you should drop any pretense of preparing to fight. Instead, act casually, calmly, as if you do not have a concern in the world. Taunt the enemy. The hope is to convince him that your weakness is only an illusion. Make him hesitant to attack your empty city because he assumes it contains an ambush waiting for him.
A recent opinion column in the Financial Times reads as if it were written in strict accordance with the Empty Fort Strategy. It comes just a few days after economic data revealed that China’s manufacturing sector is contracting and on the same day Apple revealed that its sales had slumped in China due to the country’s economic stumbles. All this is evidence that the U.S. trade war is taking its toll on China.
“China is deploying a smart stratagem. By fine-tuning its position and agreeing to make some concessions to the US, it is staving off the possibility of an outright collision,” Keyu Jin writes in a piece entitled” “The trade war with America is a strategic gift for China.”
Jin is an assistant professor of economics at the London Schoool of Economics. Her twitter account describes her as a “from Beijing, lives in London, bridge for China.” She is the daughter of one of the most influential men in China’s economy, Jin Liqun, who has been the chairman of the China International Capital Corporation, Vice Minister of Finance for China, and Vice President of the Asian Development Bank. He is currently the president of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which was launched by Chinese President Xi Jinping and is based in Beijing.
The younger Jin’s op-ed begins with a surprising bit of frankness, casually pointing out that China is indeed looking to displace the current world order and challenge the U.S. (emphasis added):
Escalating tensions between the US and China have led to expectations of a protracted trial of strength. Some warn that a new cold war is looming. On the contrary, the wrangling over trade practices and intellectual property is diverting attention from a deeper and more intractable conflict between the two powers: one concerned with China’s aspirations, its development model and its challenge to US primacy.
That is part of the Empty Fort strategy: act casual. Show no fear. Bluster.
Next is describe your position as one of strength but, again, casually. Act is if the enemy you have is the very one you want. The one who is about to fall into your ambush.
Donald Trump is a strategic gift for China. The US president’s divided domestic politics degrades confidence at home and moves the focus away from China. His alienation of America’s core allies with an ostentatious display of disdain works to disrupt the formation of new alliances and trade partnerships.
Beijing’s worst nightmare would be a strong and visionary US president with convening power. But what also plays into China’s favour is that Mr Trump is neither ideologically driven, nor bound by America’s moral prescriptions. He is a dealmaker, gratified by winning the appearance of a victory. He is most likely to put off intractable issues relating to economic contests and technological supremacy if he can win on short-term bargains.
By contrast, wrestling with previous administrations over liberal values and ideology, state capitalism in addition to development models and human rights has been significantly more vexing for China.
In other words, Jin is claiming that China is having an easier time dealing with the Trump administration than it did with the previous administrations–the very administrations whose policies led to China’s growing economic might by tolerating its trade abuses and predatory mercantilism.
“So it is in China’s interests to keep engaging with Mr Trump for a little longer, making a graceful exit from a deadly fight and satisfying the American president’s ego,” Jin writes.
This appears to be aimed at confusing U.S. negotiators and politicians about China’s strength. It may also be aimed at a domestic Chinese audience, trying to show by example the right way to react to China’s economic straits.
In any case, it is a change of tone for the advocates of China. It is a tactic deployed in desperate situations.