Chinese Media: ‘Taiwan Independence Means War’

Hu Xijin, the ultra-nationalist former editor of China’s state-run Global Times and now an editorialist, said in Monday’s edition of his Hu Says video blog that Taiwan and the United States could provoke a war by pushing for Taiwanese independence under newly elected President William Lai Ching-te.

Hu said Lai could prove to be more “radical” than Tsai Ing-wen, the term-limited outgoing leader with whom he served as vice president. The Chinese Communist Party loathes Tsai and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) she and Lai belong to, perpetually accusing them of “separatist” leanings.

Hu sought to undermine Lai’s electoral victory, which marked a historic third consecutive term for the DPP in power, by insisting that since he won fewer votes than Tsai in his three-way election race, and the DPP did not win a majority in the legislative elections last weekend, Lai would be a “weak regional leader.”

“The second crucial factor is the U.S.,” Hu continued. “Right after Lai’s victory, U.S. President Joe Biden publicly stated that the U.S. does not support Taiwan independence.”

“The U.S. wants to contain the Chinese mainland through the Taiwan question, but Washington does not want the DPP to go too far and trigger a war, forcing the U.S. to get involved,” Hu said. 

However, Hu speculated that if the weak and conciliatory Biden loses his reelection bid in November to Donald Trump, “the situation in the Taiwan Straits will see new uncertainties.” He did not elaborate on those “uncertainties,” but implied Trump’s presumably stronger stance against China might inspire the Taiwanese to get frisky.

“‘Taiwan independence’ means war, and the red line drawn by the Chinese mainland is clear,” Hu lectured. “I do not believe that the U.S. dares to openly cross this red line.”

“Even if the U.S. dares to cross this red line, it is still uncertain whether the Lai administration dares to follow suit,” he continued, effectively losing an argument with himself and concluding that Lai probably will not be more “radical” than Tsai after all.

China’s tantrum after the Lai victory has thus far been less actively belligerent than some observers feared, with little in the way of intimidating military theatrics and only one tangible punitive response, namely poaching the tiny island nation of Nauru from Taiwan’s short list of declared diplomatic allies.

China’s other notable response has been hysterically overreacting to other Asian powers that offered even the mildest of congratulations to President-elect Lai on his victory, such as the governments of the Philippines and Singapore. 

The Chinese seem generally disappointed their preferred candidate, Hou Yu-ih of the more China-friendly Kuomintang Party (KMT), could not eke out a win against the DPP. The odds of Lai touching off a massive crisis by formally declaring independence are very slim. He said during the later days of his campaign that he had no such intentions “because Taiwan is already a sovereign and independent country, and there is no need to declare independence.”

Politico Europe noted that a good deal of China’s seemingly boundless antipathy for Lai stems from a single remark he made in 2017 when he described himself as a “worker for Taiwanese independence.”

China wanted to intimidate the Taiwanese into voting Beijing’s way by warning that electing Lai could provoke a war, but Taiwanese voters largely ignored the pressure tactic. The Global Times is a reliable barometer of the mood inside the Chinese Communist Party, and Hu’s editorial — opening with rhetorical fireworks about separatism and impending war but ending with a shrug — suggests the hyperbole is beginning to fade.

Polls suggest the Taiwanese are increasingly less interested in “reunification” and less inclined to see themselves as “Chinese,” but the lively three-way election suggests they have little appetite for dramatically changing the status quo with China. The big question is probably not what Lai might do if Trump becomes president of the United States again, but rather what Chinese dictator Xi Jinping will do as his twilight days approach and the Taiwan question remains unresolved.