Poll: Donald Trump Enjoys 23-Point Lead over GOP Caucus Field in Iowa, Has More Enthusiastic Base than DeSantis

Former President Donald Trump holds a 23-point lead over Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and the rest of the Republican caucus field in Iowa, according to a poll. 

The poll, conducted by J. Ann Selzer on behalf of NBC News, the Des Moines Register, and Mediacom, shows that 42 percent of Iowa caucusgoers back Trump for the nomination. DeSantis holds 19 percent support, as he sits ten points ahead of Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) with nine percent of backing. 

From there, former Vice President Mike Pence and former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) tie at six percent, followed by former Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) with five percent support. Four percent of likely Iowa caucusgoers surveyed back entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, while Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND) and former Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX) ping at two percent and one percent, respectively: 

IOWA 2024 POLL: @DMRegister

Trump 42% (+23)
DeSantis 19%
Scott 9%
Haley 6%
Pence 6%
Christie 5%
Ramaswamy 4%
Burgum 2%
Hurd 1%@jaselzer (A+) | 406 LV | 08/13-17https://t.co/mAw87OGJhN pic.twitter.com/GoIwH6ZzVd

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 21, 2023

No other candidate secured even one percent support, while seven percent are either undecided or would not back any of the candidates in the field. 

Of those who support Trump, 66 percent say their minds are “made up,” while 34 percent “[c]ould be persuaded” to support another candidate. Conversely, only 34 percent of DeSantis supporters are sold on him, and almost 70 percent of them have not made up their minds. The margin of error (MOE) for the Trump and DeSantis samples is ± 7.5 percent and 11.8 percent, respectively. 

Notably, the poll was partly conducted after the latest indictment against Trump came down in Georgia on August 14. NBC News notes that 65 percent of the respondents do not think Trump has “committed serious crimes.” 

The poll also asked respondents about a preferred second-choice candidate, and DeSantis leads with 20 percent of the response. Scott takes the second largest share of second-choice responses at 15 percent, followed by Ramaswamy at 12 percent. Another ten percent of poll participants see Trump as their second favorite candidate, while seven percent view Pence in this light. 

Outside of first and second choices, respondents were asked if they were considering additional candidates. Haley and Scott hold the most considerers, having 29 percent apiece. DeSantis follows with 22 percent, and Pence holds 19 percent of considerers. Ramaswamy and Burgum take 18 percent. Another 14 percent are weighing conservative radio host Larry Elder as an option, and 12 percent are considering Trump. 

The poll sampled 406 likely caucusgoers from August 13-17, and the MOE for the full sample is ± 4.9 percent.