Analysts Lower Tesla Delivery Targets as Stock Dips Further

Tesla shares traded at a five-month low this week after analysts at RBC Capital Markets lowered their target for the stock while CEO Elon Musk stated that vehicle prices would increase.

The Street reports that Tesla stocks are facing tough times, hitting a five-month low on Monday following RBC Capital Markets lowering of their target for the stock. This combined with Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s announcement that the prices for all Tesla vehicles would increase in April resulted in Elon Musk’s car company taking a harsh hit in the stock market.

RBC analyst Joseph Spak cut his price target on Tesla shares by $35 to $210 each, he also reduced his first quarter delivery targets for Tesla’s Model 3 by 4,500 cars bringing his estimate down to 52,500. Spak cited “meager demand” for his reasoning in a note to investors. JMP Securities lowered its price target by around 3 percent to $394 per share with analyst Joseph Osha stating:

As we have moved through the first part of 2019, it is becoming apparent that Tesla’s efforts to pull demand into 4Q before the federal tax credit expired worked well, perhaps better than the company had planned. Indeed, based on our analysis we are not sure that U.S. demand will return to 4Q18 levels at any point this year.

It is worth reiterating that our investment stance on Tesla has always been based on the potential the company has to make competitive gains over time. The undeniably challenging environment that Tesla faces at the moment is not enough to impact our fundamental stance on the company and its prospects.

Tesla shares hit a price of $254.46 on Monday, bringing the overall year-to-date decline to around 17.4 percent. Tesla CEO Elon Musk is still in hot water over his tweets which alleged that Tesla deliveries would be close to 500,000 in 2019; a tweet which the SEC is attempting to hold him in contempt over. Barclays analyst Brian Johnson said that a “parallel universe” theory might explain the disparity between Musk’s forecasts and Tesla’s formal statements.

The company has officially estimated deliveries to be around 360,000 and 400,000 in 2019, not the 500,000 that Musk has claimed. In an analyst note Johnson wrote:

With a range of 360k (low end of published delivery guide) to 600k units (high end of Musk comments assuming deliveries), Tesla automotive revenue ‘guide’ appears to range for ~$22.5bn to ~$35bn – which some investors could possibly view as a material difference. If the second universe is interpreted as still only having 400k deliveries, model 3 inventory build would be 200k units costing ~$8bn of cash drain.

Depending how the judge rules in the SEC contempt of court charge against Musk, Tesla could gain a reprieve or face more problems ahead.