Goldman Sachs Predicts 30% Drop in Tesla Stock

Goldman Sachs has predicted a 30 percent drop in Tesla’s stock price over the next 6 months as the company faces increased competition and reportedly struggles to meet production goals.

Investment banking firm Goldman Sachs has resumed coverage of Elon Musk’s Tesla with a sell rating due to the prediction that the company will face fierce competition in the next few months. Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino said in a note to clients on Tuesday: “We see the medium-to-longer term industry backdrop as challenging for Tesla’s products; this follows from an increasing number of EV launches from both traditional OEMs and other start-up competitors — at a time when the company’s product cadence hits a gap. We believe the company will see pressure to its lead in EVs as competition catches up.”

Tamberrino’s estimate is a $210 six-month price target for Tesla shares, a 30 percent drop to Tesla’s closing price on Friday. A large reason for this prediction is the significant number of car manufacturers entering the electric car industry, such as Audi, BMW, Porsche, and Jaguar. “With regional mandates and tightening CO2 standards, both traditional and new entrants are expected to launch several EVs in the coming years — with a large crescendo in the early-to-mid 2020s,” said Tamberrino. “Altogether, we remain bearish on the company’s ability to execute, achieve its targeted production ramp/margins, and sustain FCF [free cash flow] generation.”

Recent reports are claiming that Tesla is struggling to meet their production goals, an issue which the automaker has always wrestled with. RS Metrics, a company that monitors companies from the sky using drones, noticed a few issues with Tesla’s factory recently.

The vice president of RS Metrics, Alex Diamond, commented on the photos of Tesla’s factory stating: “The first image is from Aug. 2 when the lot was relatively full with 421 Model 3’s, 88 Model X’s, and 85 Model S’s,” said Diamond. “The second [photo] is from Aug. 23, when it was relatively empty with 112 Model 3, 33 Model X, and 22 Model S. The third photo shows the lot filling up again, with 243 Model 3’s, 35 Model X’s, and 29 Model S’s in the south delivery lot.”

So what do these drone images mean for Tesla? “This shows the choppy nature of Tesla’s production,” says Diamond. “I believe Tesla will meet its production guidance of 50,000 to 55,000 Model 3’s in third quarter of 2018, but it will not be a smooth ramp-up. And so far, they have not achieved over 5,000 Model 3 produced per week at a sustainable rate. That has only occurred a couple of times in ‘bursts,’ which likely compromised the quality of each car produced,” Diamond said.

Diamond noted that Tesla’s factory is operating 24 hours a day, seven days a week in order to meet their production goals. “They need to produce and move 42 cars per hour to hit the 5,000 Model 3 and 2,000 Model S & X that they have touted in recent second-quarter 2018 investor releases,” he said. “It still seems like a struggle for them, and the messy nature of the Fremont assembly plant reflects this.”

When asked about their future production schedule Diamond stated: “I think they are going to hit their third-quarter Model 3 guidance unless some sort of major event happens. They don’t even need to maintain 5,000 Model 3’s per week to do this; Only a little over 4,000 per week,” he added.