Nate Silver at the NY Times looks at the trend in recent polling and finds that President Obama no longer holds an advantage over the GOP on handling the economy. Shortly after his re-election, the President had an 18 point
The controversy surrounding Karl Rove’s Conservative Victory Project, the new super PAC designed, according to the New York Times, to “recruit seasoned candidates and protect Senate incumbents from challenges by far-right conservatives and Tea Party enthusiasts who Republican leaders worry
Last week I put myself on the line prior to the Redskins playoff game by stating bluntly that the Seattle Seahawks were the best team in the NFL the second half of the year. After the Seahawks backed up that statement
Did you know that anti-tax advocate Grover Norquist has a 25% higher approval rating than New York Times statistician Nate Silver. More bad news for Silver: he’s trusted by less than half the number of Americans that trust the Gallup
Nate Silver, the New York Times‘ statistical and polling guru, has ripped into Politico, suggesting that they are stupid. Silver said on Bill Simmons’ “BS Report” podcast: What’s remarkable for me is that you had some journalist for Politico who
On Tuesday, Intrade, the Irish based market predictions company, announced that “the report of Intrade’s death was premature.” In a statement posted on its website, the company clarified its Monday announcement that it was closing the accounts of American customers. Although
A review of the turnout model first presented prior to last week’s election still shows the road map for victory in 2016 based on five factors. First let’s look at the model, where 121 boxes represented 242 million American adults.
Quick Note: This post should’ve published yesterday. It’s late because I asked to be the one to write it. Unfortunately, though, I had a family emergency hit on Election Day morning and, after spending 36 hours in a hospital recliner
Jack Healy of The New York Times tweeted out a link to Colorado Secretary of State spreadsheet that shows the final early vote count as close, but giving Repubs the lead: Dems: 653,450 Repubs: 688, 303 According to Nate Silver’s
Real Clear Politics rephrases the title of Paul Krugman’s latest New York Times piece as “You’re Stupid If You Think It’s Close.” In it, Krugman writes, “Nate Silver (who has lately attracted a remarkable amount of hate – welcome to my
This morning, because the sun rose in the East, Nate Silver again increased his odds of Obama winning reelection. Silver now estimates Obama’s chances of reelection at a precise 83.7%. Now, I realize Obama’s improved chances don’t actually have anything to
TV viewers watching news of the approach of Sandy last week may not have thought much of President Obama’s urgent appeal to supporters to vote early. While no one who has worked turnout operations and statistic models ever accepted Nate
A massive and historic storm is barreling towards the beltway this weekend. The entire DC-NYC axis, headquarters of the left media complex, will suffer the effects of three storm-fronts, converging at the same time. Evacuations may be ordered, but it
Today’s tracking poll from Gallup confirms that Romney has opened a consistent, and significant, lead in the race against President Obama. After dipping a point yesterday, the poll finds Romney again leading Obama by 7 points among likely voters, 52-45.
For my first professional job after college, I didn’t have a cell phone or e-mail. I only occasionally used a computer, accessing a crude spreadsheet program through an MS/DOS prompt. I mention this to say I had a front-row seat
There’s no question that nationally and in the ever-important states that swing, Governor Mitt Romney is not only tied or ahead but also enjoying a real surge after his stunning Wednesday night debate victory over President Obama. The Obama campaign
The national polling numbers have not been good recently for President Obama. Many have him still ahead a point or two, but most of those use very questionable samples. Gallup’s latest 7-day tracking poll has the race tied. Rasmussen has
According to exit polls, 10% of Democrats will have crossed over to cast a ballot in the Great Lakes State’s GOP primary. Of those who have crossed over, 50% went to Rick Santorum, compared to just 15% who went for
Competition and market forces at work in Tech. This is one of many reasons behind why it’s bad for government to try and pick winners and losers. (Reuters) – Asian technology companies came under pressure on Thursday to slash prices
Jennifer Haberkorn’s recent article in Politico, “Republican Party Eyes Choking Health Law Funding,” reveals far more about her merits as a journalist and health care “expert”, than it does about the GOP’s strategy of defunding Obamacare. In anotherwise dreary and
In March 2010, Veronique de Rugy of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University released a study about President Obama’s stimulus package. It contained many informational gems: Public entities received 42 percent of awards under the stimulus package, but received