With the California primary seven weeks away, the fate of the candidates lies in the hands of a small number of voters in key swing districts in places like the 27th congressional district in eastern Los Angeles.
Donald Trump’s resounding, poll-beating victory in the New York primary sets a clear precedent for the California primary: he is going to compete in the rural areas that Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) has dominated in the caucus states thus far in 2016.
The New York primary on April 19 marked major wins for Democratic favorite Hillary Clinton and Republican frontrunner Donald Trump, setting the stage for a decisive California primary on June 7. There are five key lessons from New York for California.
If the California primary, scheduled for June 7, were held today, Republican frontrunner Donald Trump would likely win 106 delegates — 93 from congressional districts, plus 13 for winning statewide — while Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) would win 66.
California’s 15th district is one of the most important toss-ups among Republicans in the June 7th California primary. A quick look at the district map reveals the reason.
Democrats: The strength of unions, and the implicit class division between coastal and inland areas, favor Sanders slightly. Republicans: Trump will do well here among white working-class voters, military voters, and even traditional conservatives.
Democrats: The Democrats in San Diego are somewhat conservative, but the unions are strong, and will support Sanders. Republicans: Once again, the military vote will help Trump prevail in a competitive district that might otherwise lean Cruz.
Democrats: Clinton should do very well in this district, though a late surge in support for Sanders will also be visible.
Republicans: If Trump cannot win along the border where the “wall” is to be built, he may as well give up and go home.
A new YouGov/CBS poll shows Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump leading Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) by 18 points, 49-31, ahead of the upcoming California primary. Ohio governor John Kasich clocked in at 16 percent.
Democrats: Hillary Clinton will likely do well in this conservative district, though some Latino voters will support Sanders. Republicans: Trump will win easily in this district, and Hunter will continue to be a key California surrogate for him.
Democrats: Though San Diego is warm, this is one county where Democratic voters are unlikely to “feel the Bern.” Republicans: Cruz will keep the race tight — especially if Issa endorses him — but Trump’s military vote will prevail.
On Sunday morning — hours after hosting a $33,400-per-person fundraiser for Hillary Clinton — Hollywood star George Clooney blasted political fundraisers as “obscene” in an interview with Chuck Todd of NBC News’ Meet the Press.
Democrats: There are enough Sanders fans to score him a delegate or two, but Clinton will do better in the district. Republicans: Cruz will do very well in this district, while Trump is more likely to dominate inland Orange County.
Democrats: Clinton and Sanders will split this district, with Sanders doing surprisingly well in elite Catalina. Republicans: The fact that California’s Republican primary is “closed” will make the difference here for Cruz.
Democrats: The large number of Latino voters should give Clinton an edge over Sanders in this district. Republicans: This is an area of Orange County in which feelings about immigration will favor Trump over Cruz.
Democrats: Though Sanders will attract a few suburban socialists, the district’s Democrats will largely back Clinton. Republicans: Trump will have some support, but this area will remain prime organizing turf for the Cruz campaign.
Democrats: Though Sanders will enjoy some support, the large number of minority voters will give Clinton the win. Republicans: There are relatively few Republicans in this urbandistrict, and Trump will win most of their votes.
Democrats: There is fertile ground in this working-class area for both Clinton and Sanders to pick up delegates. Republicans: Trump will likely dominate among the district’s relatively small number of Republican primary voters.
Democrats: The conservative Democrats in this Republican-dominated district will back Clinton by wide margins. Republicans: Though the district’s demographic profile favors Cruz, Trump’s tough border stance will seal the win.
While radio hosts and political pundits in California speculate endlessly over the 2016 presidential primaries, the nitty-gritty battles are being fought in places like Shasta County, in the heart of the state’s first Congressional district.
Democrats: Clinton will do well among homeowners and Latino voters, though Sanders will be fairly competitive. Republicans: Cruz’s strong poll numbers in the county should carry the day ahead of a vigorous Trump turnout.
Much of the fifth district is rural and agricultural, which could benefit Cruz. Trump, however, is polling far ahead of Cruz in Bay Area districts and does well in more isolated portions of the area.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has seen her once-formidable lead among Latino voters shrink among likely Democratic voters in the California primary, from 30 points in October to merely one point in early April.
Democrats: The area’s high Latino population, and homeowner/taxpayer mentality, makes it a big win for Clinton. Republicans: Outrage at illegal immigration and corruption will fuel Trump, despite weaker appeal among Latinos.
Trump’s strongest support comes from Californians who feel ignored by the system and betrayed by the GOP. They no longer have faith in political parties or ideological movements.
Democrats: Though not a total shutout for Sanders, this area’s Democrats have little interest in electing a socialist. Republicans: One of the easiest Cruz wins in the state — though racking up votes here won’t help him elsewhere.
Democrats: Clinton will dominate among the minority voters and middle-class homeowners of the district. Republicans: This district will see another hard-fought battle between Trump and Cruz — and Cruz will likely win.
Democrats: This is an important opportunity for Sanders, who enjoys wide support in the area, to rack up delegates. Republicans: Cruz’s campaigning in the district is admirable, but probably not enough to overcome Trump’s support.
As Republican campaigns scramble to assembly delegate lists by May 8, Democrats on Wednesday passed the first of several key deadlines in the delegate selection process before the California primary. Those Democrats interested in representing their congressional district at the Democratic National Convention July 25-28 in Philadelphia — some 317 (58%) of the party’s 548 delegates from California had to file a form by Wednesday.
Democrats: This is moderate, Clinton country, despite the occasional invasion by Medea Benjamin and the far-left. Republicans: This is the kind of district where Republicans know their vote matters. Cruz will win narrowly.
Democrats: The hipster math, plus the academic crowd and the union-dominated core favor Sanders over Clinton. Republicans: Cruz have a presence, but Trump should win the district’s frustrated Republicans by a large margin.
Democrats: Clinton will have the edge, though Sanders will run very close and capture the core of the district.
Republicans: This is a swing district between Trump and Cruz, though Cruz will pull off a newsworthy victory.
Democrats: With a large Latino majority and a moderate suburban base, Clinton should prevail by a healthy margin. Republicans: Cruz will be very competitive here, but the district’s disgruntled Republicans will still back Trump.
Democrats: Clinton’s strong support among Latino voters will help her eke out a tough win over Sanders. Republicans: The district would favor Cruz, but for the recent memory of terror, which may tilt it to Trump.
Democrats: This moderate district should be one of Clinton’s strongest districts in the Los Angeles area. Republicans: The battle will be hard, but this is among Cruz’s best prospects for a win in Los Angeles County.
Democrats: Clinton will edge Sanders in this moderate district of homeowners, commuters, and civil libertarians. Republicans: Though the district’s demographics favor Cruz slightly, “Porn Valley” will go for The Donald.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) kicked off his California campaign with a rally in Orange County at Hotel Irvine — the same venue where he met privately with his entire state of proposed delegates last month. “This is the birthplace of the Reagan Revolution,” Cruz told the enthusiastic crowd, “and let me tell you, there’s a new revolution brewing.”
Democrats: Sanders and Clinton will split Hollywood, but Clinton will win the northern part of the district. Republicans: Trump will win here, partly because of the Iran deal and anti-Cruz sentiment in Hollywood.
County election officials in the California began sending absentee and “vote-by-mail” ballots to military and overseas voters Friday — the first ballots to be delivered for the California primary on June 7.
Democrats: Sanders will have some support around the universities, but Clinton will also have a good showing. Republicans: This is a swing district, where Cruz and Trump will be neck-and-neck. Cruz will win — barely.
