For the better part of the 20th Century, one of the more reliable presidential indicators has been what was formerly known as the “Redskins Rule.” The rule was that if the team formerly known as the Redskins won their final home game before the presidential election, the incumbent party would retain control of the White House. If they lost, the party out of party would win and move into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
From 1940-2000, this predictor rivaled most professional posters in its ability to predict Election Day outcomes. However, since then, like the winning ways of the Redskins/Commanders, the “Redskins Rule” has become much less reliable.
And that’s good news for former President Trump.
The “Redskins Rule” did not correctly predict the winner of the 2004, 2012, and 2016 presidential elections. In two of those three instances, the failure of the Redskins Rule directly benefitted Republicans, and in 2016, it directly benefitted President Trump in particular.
On Sunday, in Washington’s last home game before next week’s election, the Commanders snatched victory from the jaws of defeat on a miraculous Hail Mary pass from QB Jayden Daniels to wide receiver Noah Brown.
So, while Kamala Harris supporters may take heart in Washington’s come from behind victory, at least in this century, the Redskins Rule has gone the way of the name Reskins, it just doesn’t get used anymore.