As you may or may not have noticed, scoring in the NFL this year is way down. Theories abound as to why this may be, but ESPN lead draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. has a radical proposal for addressing the issue.
According to Kiper, Cover 2 or Two High coverage has led to the drop in points and needs to be outlawed.
“The NFL is being ruined by these two high safeties,” Kiper said on Get Up. “You think about those quarterbacks who would throw the ball down the field, what [Hall of Fame QB Terry] Bradshaw did with [receiver John] Stallworth and [Lynn] Swann, Roger Staubach. That’s what I want to see brought back.
“You got the five-yard rule with the cornerbacks right, the Mel Blount rule. Now, with the push thing with Hurts, you gotta be a yard back now, so don’t tell me you can’t have those safeties closer to the line of scrimmage than they are.”
“We’ve gotta change this thing. ‘You’re too far back,’ you can warn them safeties, but you have to figure out, competition committee, somebody has to figure out what that depth is, but it’s too far back; the NFL is being ruined by these two high safeties.”
Now, I know what you’re thinking: The Cover 2 is leading to the drop in scoring? The Cover 2 has been a prevalent defensive alignment since at least the late 90s. How can it just now be leading to a decline in scoring?!
Those are my thoughts, exactly. It makes no sense whatsoever.
Still, scoring is down. So far, the league average is 43 points per game, a massive drop from the all-time high of 49.6 in 2019. In addition, rushing attempts are up three percent from last year, and many of the passes have been short to the middle range, not nearly as much as the downfield variety.
What can account for this?
Could NFL defenders be playing the Cover 2 better than in the past? Sure. However, they are unlikely to have made such incredible advances in Cover 2 execution that it would account for a six-point drop in average scores.
In truth, the answer is probably owed to multiple factors.
One thing for sure is that NFL quarterback play is very poor. Outside your usual suspects, Mahomes, Rodgers, and maybe a couple of other of the usual top-five quarterbacks, the caliber of quarterback play in the league right now is dreadful.
In addition, or maybe in conjunction, offseason practice time has been whittled down to almost nothing. This means that unless they are veterans who have played together for a long time, most NFL quarterbacks and receivers/tight ends enter the season without having any rhythm with each other. Sure, Pat Mahomes and Travis Kelce can pick up where the left off, they’ve played together for six years.
But look at the miscommunication and difficulties between Aaron Rodgers and Garrett Wilson, who are in their first year together. It’s a massive difference.
The point is that most NFL Quarterback-Receiver tandems don’t develop real chemistry until Week 6 or Week 7.
Will scoring increase when that happens? Sure. But the average per-game scoring will take a hit. Regardless, there are likely a combination of reasons why scoring is down. However, the idea that it’s because of the sudden dominance of a defensive alignment that’s been in the league for more than 30 years is absurd.
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