GWINN: No, the NFL Didn’t Rig it So the Chiefs Would Make it to the Super Bowl

The problem with conspiracy theorists is that if everything is a conspiracy theory, the conspiracy theorists just end up looking like crazy people.

Conspiracy theorists today are in danger of making the same mistake.

For example, the final whistle had barely blown on Kansas City’s 17-10 victory over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday when the X-sphere became flooded with hot-takes, primarily from those with questionable sports credentials, announcing that the Chiefs’ victory was a clear sign that the NFL had rigged the game to get Travis Kelce’s girlfriend, pop star Taylor Swift, to the Super Bowl.

A move that would undoubtedly add millions of viewers to a game that is already the most-watched television event in any given year.

And these are but a tiny fraction of the posts on X suggesting the league rigged the game.

First, let’s examine the issue of motive. Does the NFL want Taylor Swift at the Super Bowl? Of course they do! According to reports, Swift has added $331 million in brand value to the NFL since she first started appearing at games in late September. She might be able to add another $200 million to that in the two weeks from now to the actual date of the game. Not to mention the additional eight million or so “Swifties” who otherwise would have no interest in watching the Super Bowl but absolutely will watch for Taylor Swift.

But wanting something to happen and actively rigging an event to make it happen are two completely different things.

To illustrate this absurdity, let’s look at the history of the Kansas City Chiefs in the Andy Reid-Pat Mahomes era. Going into Sunday’s AFC Championship Game against the Ravens, the Chiefs had been to five AFC Championship Games, three Super Bowls, and won two Super Bowl championships. Mind you, this incredible run of near-dynastic success all occurred before Travis Kelce began dating Taylor Swift.

In short, the NFL didn’t need to rig anything to get the Chiefs to the Super Bowl. History suggests they would at least end up in the conference championship game anyway.

But how did they win that conference championship game? Let’s look at their opponents, the Baltimore Ravens, to answer that question.

The Ravens, a team that led the league in rushing this year, only rushed the ball 16 times in Sunday’s game. That was the team’s lowest amount of rushing attempts in six years and tied for the lowest amount in the Lamar Jackson era. To put it in perspective, the Ravens averaged 32 rushing attempts per game during the regular season. In a one-score game with weather being a factor, they only rushed half that much.

Criminal.

Let’s look at turnovers. In the playoffs, the team that is +1 in turnovers has an 80 percent chance of winning. The Ravens turned the ball over three times on Sunday. How many times did Kansas City turn it over? Zero.

Did the NFL rig the Ravens to try to be something they’re not on offense and turn the ball over three times?

Yes, there were terrible calls yesterday, which went against the Ravens. But there have been bad calls all year, and the Chiefs have been on the receiving end of several of them.

And lest anyone think this is a defensive Chiefs fan writing to defend his squad, I’m a Ravens fan. I wouldn’t mind it at all if the NFL were caught altering the outcome of games. The league would lose its lucrative gambling deals, and I could say my team got screwed instead of sitting here wondering why they decided to play so horribly.

But it’s not true.

The Ravens were a favored home team in Lamar Jackson’s 2019 MVP year as well and lost to the Titans in brutal fashion. Trust me, they can blow golden opportunities without anyone having to rig it.

Conspiracy theorists have had a pretty good run of being correct lately, but this isn’t it. The NFL does enough bad stuff that you don’t have to make up a cheating scandal. And if you do, you only make yourself look like an idiot.