Last year the Value Add bracket posted on Breitbart Sports predicting the Gonzaga-UNC Final, a year after the 2016 Value Add All-American bracket dominated the brackets of both President Obama and Nate Silver.
Arizona’s Deandre Ayton moved into first place of the top 100 Value Add players listed below for the first time.
The annual Value Add bracket based on www.valueaddbasketball.com is laid out here (monitor bracket) after those two very accurate years. The breakdowns of nine areas to monitor will continue to be updated in the following blogs; 1, Value Add adjusted; 2, NBA Talent; 3, All American and 3-and-a-half stars (also All-American Announcement); 4, Upset Mismatches. (based on 3-point shooting, steals and Offensive Rebounding); and 5, Coaching/Senior Guards/Hot Streaks.
All 4,068 player ratings can be sorted by team at www.valueaddbasketball.com. Part of the bracket analysis includes the chance for an upset by a team that can dominate with offensive rebounding, steals or three-point shooting. Those figures are listed for each of the top 100 players. For example, Ayton grabs 13.4 percent of all shots Arizona missed shots, West Virginia’s Jevon Carter steals the ball 4.6 percent of the time an opponent brings it up the court, and Villanova’s Mikal Bridges has made 88 of 203 three-pointers (43.3 percent compared to national average of 35.0 percent).
| Rnk | Player | Value | Team | OR% | Stl% | 3PM-3PA | Ht | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deandre Ayton #13 | 11.64 | Arizona | 13.4 | 1.0 | 12-33 | 7’1 | Fr |
| 2 | Jock Landale #34 | 11.18 | Saint Mary’s | 12.0 | 0.8 | 3-9 | 6’11 | Sr |
| 3 | Mikal Bridges #25 | 10.75 | Villanova | 5.5 | 2.8 | 88-203 | 6’7 | Jr |
| 4 | Gary Clark #11 | 10.59 | Cincinnati | 12.3 | 3.2 | 24-55 | 6’8 | Sr |
| 5 | Yante Maten #1 | 10.30 | Georgia | 11.8 | 0.8 | 29-85 | 6’8 | Sr |
| 6 | Keita Bates-Diop #33 | 10.09 | Ohio St. | 5.6 | 1.8 | 58-162 | 6’7 | Jr |
| 7 | Jevon Carter #2 | 10.04 | West Virginia | 2.5 | 4.6 | 71-183 | 6’2 | Sr |
| 8 | Dean Wade #32 | 9.95 | Kansas St. | 5.0 | 2.8 | 40-91 | 6’10 | Jr |
| 9 | John Konchar #55 | 9.81 | Fort Wayne | 6.3 | 3.9 | 60-155 | 6’5 | Jr |
| 10 | Trae Young #11 | 9.71 | Oklahoma | 1.3 | 2.5 | 115-318 | 6’2 | Fr |
| 11 | Jalen Brunson #1 | 9.59 | Villanova | 1.1 | 1.5 | 74-179 | 6’2 | Jr |
| 12 | Devonte’ Graham #4 | 9.53 | Kansas | 1.6 | 2.5 | 98-238 | 6’2 | Sr |
| 13 | Juwan Morgan #13 | 9.44 | Indiana | 10.7 | 2.4 | 16-53 | 6’7 | Jr |
| 14 | Devon Hall #0 | 9.43 | Virginia | 1.5 | 1.8 | 57-126 | 6’5 | Sr |
| 15 | Marvin Bagley #35 | 9.40 | Duke | 13.7 | 1.5 | 20-54 | 6’11 | Fr |
| 16 | Trevon Bluiett #5 | 9.14 | Xavier | 3.0 | 1.2 | 101-239 | 6’6 | Sr |
| 17 | James Thompson #2 | 9.06 | Eastern Michigan | 13.9 | 1.3 | 0-0 | 6’10 | Jr |
| 18 | Luke Maye #32 | 9.02 | North Carolina | 10.2 | 1.7 | 48-109 | 6’8 | Jr |
| 19 | Jonathan Stark #2 | 8.88 | Murray St. | 1.3 | 2.0 | 103-254 | 6’0 | Sr |
| 20 | Jeff Roberson #11 | 8.79 | Vanderbilt | 6.6 | 1.5 | 62-153 | 6’6 | Sr |
| 21 | Keenan Evans #12 | 8.72 | Texas Tech | 1.4 | 2.4 | 43-137 | 6’3 | Sr |
| 22 | Wendell Carter #34 | 8.71 | Duke | 13.0 | 1.6 | 19-41 | 6’10 | Fr |
| 23 | Peyton Aldridge #23 | 8.64 | Davidson | 5.0 | 0.7 | 76-192 | 6’8 | Sr |
| 24 | Mohamed Bamba #4 | 8.51 | Texas | 12.1 | 1.5 | 14-50 | 6’11 | Fr |
| 25 | Dylan Windler #3 | 8.29 | Belmont | 6.3 | 1.7 | 69-162 | 6’7 | Jr |
| 26 | Carsen Edwards #3 | 8.10 | Purdue | 1.7 | 2.3 | 89-216 | 6’1 | So |
| 27 | Ethan Happ #22 | 8.09 | Wisconsin | 9.7 | 3.0 | 1-11 | 6’10 | Jr |
| 28 | Michael Oguine #0 | 8.00 | Montana | 8.0 | 2.6 | 42-119 | 6’2 | Jr |
| 29 | Reid Travis #22 | 7.98 | Stanford | 10.2 | 1.3 | 17-57 | 6’8 | Jr |
| 30 | Mike Daum #24 | 7.95 | South Dakota St. | 7.2 | 0.9 | 85-198 | 6’9 | Jr |
| 31 | Anthony Cowan #1 | 7.93 | Maryland | 0.7 | 2.3 | 52-140 | 6’0 | So |
| 32 | Rob Gray #32 | 7.93 | Houston | 2.2 | 2.2 | 51-147 | 6’1 | Sr |
| 33 | Marcquise Reed #2 | 7.88 | Clemson | 2.6 | 2.9 | 65-179 | 6’3 | Jr |
| 34 | Cassius Winston #5 | 7.75 | Michigan St. | 0.9 | 1.3 | 71-135 | 6’0 | So |
| 35 | Kenrich Williams #34 | 7.73 | TCU | 9.6 | 2.9 | 45-110 | 6’7 | Sr |
| 36 | Tyler Davis #34 | 7.73 | Texas A&M | 13.2 | 0.7 | 7-25 | 6’10 | Jr |
| 37 | Elijah Bryant #3 | 7.73 | BYU | 1.7 | 2.2 | 82-199 | 6’5 | Jr |
| 38 | Allonzo Trier #35 | 7.70 | Arizona | 1.4 | 1.1 | 70-179 | 6’5 | Jr |
| 39 | Grayson Allen #3 | 7.68 | Duke | 1.8 | 2.7 | 90-239 | 6’5 | Sr |
| 40 | Moritz Wagner #13 | 7.68 | Michigan | 6.4 | 2.2 | 52-132 | 6’11 | Jr |
| 41 | Justin Bibbins #1 | 7.66 | Utah | 1.3 | 2.2 | 82-182 | 5’8 | Sr |
| 42 | Dakota Mathias #31 | 7.65 | Purdue | 0.6 | 2.4 | 90-194 | 6’4 | Sr |
| 43 | Landry Shamet #11 | 7.65 | Wichita St. | 1.6 | 1.3 | 84-183 | 6’4 | So |
| 44 | Daryl Macon #4 | 7.57 | Arkansas | 1.4 | 1.8 | 84-196 | 6’3 | Sr |
| 45 | Zhaire Smith #2 | 7.56 | Texas Tech | 9.9 | 2.4 | 13-31 | 6’5 | Fr |
| 46 | Tookie Brown #4 | 7.48 | Georgia Southern | 2.1 | 3.0 | 49-101 | 5’11 | Jr |
| 47 | Jacob Evans #1 | 7.46 | Cincinnati | 5.0 | 2.6 | 58-152 | 6’6 | Jr |
| 48 | TJ Shorts #0 | 7.44 | UC Davis | 1.6 | 3.6 | 10-28 | 5’9 | Jr |
| 49 | Noah Dickerson #15 | 7.41 | Washington | 12.5 | 1.4 | 2-5 | 6’8 | Jr |
| 50 | Sam Hauser #10 | 7.38 | Marquette | 3.8 | 1.7 | 91-179 | 6’8 | So |
| 51 | Donta Hall #0 | 7.33 | Alabama | 11.1 | 1.6 | 0-0 | 6’9 | Jr |
| 52 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #22 | 7.32 | Kentucky | 2.9 | 2.7 | 19-50 | 6’6 | Fr |
| 53 | Killian Tillie #33 | 7.31 | Gonzaga | 8.1 | 1.7 | 45-90 | 6’10 | So |
| 54 | Sam Merrill #3 | 7.28 | Utah St. | 0.7 | 1.7 | 95-207 | 6’5 | So |
| 55 | Ray Spalding #13 | 7.28 | Louisville | 13.8 | 3.1 | 4-16 | 6’10 | Jr |
| 56 | Jessie Govan #15 | 7.26 | Georgetown | 8.9 | 1.0 | 16-46 | 6’10 | Jr |
| 57 | Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman #12 | 7.25 | Michigan | 2.5 | 1.5 | 61-156 | 6’4 | Sr |
| 58 | Miles Bridges #22 | 7.23 | Michigan St. | 4.9 | 1.2 | 65-176 | 6’7 | So |
| 59 | Jerome Robinson #1 | 7.21 | Boston College | 1.6 | 1.4 | 80-191 | 6’5 | Jr |
| 60 | Thomas Welsh #40 | 7.20 | UCLA | 9.1 | 1.2 | 45-110 | 7’0 | Sr |
| 61 | Ty Jerome #11 | 7.20 | Virginia | 1.4 | 3.4 | 56-144 | 6’5 | So |
| 62 | Scottie James #31 | 7.19 | Liberty | 13.0 | 1.1 | 13-40 | 6’7 | So |
| 63 | Vladimir Brodziansky #10 | 7.18 | TCU | 9.7 | 0.7 | 21-62 | 6’11 | Sr |
| 64 | Aaron Holiday #3 | 7.17 | UCLA | 1.5 | 1.9 | 84-194 | 6’1 | Jr |
| 65 | Collin Sexton #2 | 7.16 | Alabama | 4.1 | 1.7 | 43-125 | 6’3 | Fr |
| 66 | Matt Rafferty #32 | 7.14 | Furman | 8.9 | 3.3 | 12-37 | 6’8 | Jr |
| 67 | Isaiah Wilkins #21 | 7.13 | Virginia | 9.5 | 2.8 | 2-15 | 6’7 | Sr |
| 68 | Chris Chiozza #11 | 7.12 | Florida | 1.8 | 3.4 | 37-103 | 6’0 | Sr |
| 69 | Jon Elmore #33 | 7.10 | Marshall | 1.4 | 1.9 | 91-254 | 6’3 | Jr |
| 70 | Jordan Howard #1 | 7.08 | Central Arkansas | 0.9 | 1.5 | 107-262 | 5’11 | Sr |
| 71 | Reed Timmer #12 | 7.07 | Drake | 1.8 | 0.9 | 89-210 | 6’1 | Sr |
| 72 | Tony Carr #10 | 7.06 | Penn St. | 2.9 | 1.3 | 81-176 | 6’5 | So |
| 73 | Justin Tillman #4 | 7.05 | VCU | 12.2 | 0.6 | 27-82 | 6’8 | Sr |
| 74 | Chris Cokley #3 | 7.05 | UAB | 14.6 | 1.1 | 0-2 | 6’8 | Sr |
| 75 | Khyri Thomas #2 | 7.03 | Creighton | 4.1 | 2.9 | 62-146 | 6’3 | Jr |
| 76 | Isaac Haas #44 | 7.03 | Purdue | 9.2 | 0.4 | 0-0 | 7’2 | Sr |
| 77 | Zach Lofton #23 | 7.02 | New Mexico St. | 4.0 | 1.8 | 76-204 | 6’4 | Sr |
| 78 | Vincent Edwards #12 | 7.01 | Purdue | 8.6 | 0.9 | 47-120 | 6’8 | Sr |
| 79 | Kelan Martin #30 | 7.01 | Butler | 3.2 | 1.2 | 87-240 | 6’7 | Sr |
| 80 | Yoeli Childs #23 | 7.00 | BYU | 7.8 | 1.5 | 14-44 | 6’8 | So |
| 81 | Andrew Rowsey #30 | 6.99 | Marquette | 1.4 | 1.7 | 110-273 | 5’11 | Sr |
| 82 | Shamorie Ponds #2 | 6.97 | St. John’s | 3.6 | 3.6 | 45-179 | 6’1 | So |
| 83 | Jordan Barnett #21 | 6.97 | Missouri | 5.9 | 1.2 | 82-194 | 6’7 | Sr |
| 84 | Mike Watkins #24 | 6.97 | Penn St. | 8.9 | 2.1 | 0-1 | 6’9 | So |
| 85 | Caleb Martin #10 | 6.95 | Nevada | 3.3 | 2.1 | 89-218 | 6’7 | Jr |
| 86 | CJ Massinburg #5 | 6.94 | Buffalo | 6.8 | 1.7 | 78-199 | 6’3 | Jr |
| 87 | Chris Silva #30 | 6.93 | South Carolina | 13.5 | 1.4 | 5-12 | 6’9 | Jr |
| 88 | Dererk Pardon #5 | 6.93 | Northwestern | 13.0 | 1.1 | 0-1 | 6’8 | Jr |
| 89 | Kevin Huerter #4 | 6.92 | Maryland | 3.9 | 1.1 | 70-169 | 6’7 | So |
| 90 | Jalen McDaniels #5 | 6.92 | San Diego St. | 10.8 | 2.0 | 3-16 | 6’10 | Fr |
| 91 | Tyus Battle #25 | 6.86 | Syracuse | 1.4 | 2.5 | 70-217 | 6’6 | So |
| 92 | Cody Martin #11 | 6.84 | Nevada | 6.1 | 2.7 | 14-47 | 6’7 | Jr |
| 93 | Doral Moore #4 | 6.83 | Wake Forest | 14.0 | 0.8 | 0-0 | 7’1 | Jr |
| 94 | Jordan McLaughlin #11 | 6.81 | USC | 2.6 | 3.3 | 49-124 | 6’1 | Sr |
| 95 | Martinas Geben #23 | 6.79 | Notre Dame | 14.4 | 1.5 | 1-3 | 6’10 | Sr |
| 96 | Jordan Barnes #2 | 6.74 | Indiana St. | 1.1 | 2.1 | 108-263 | 5’11 | So |
| 97 | Nick King #5 | 6.69 | Middle Tennessee | 8.3 | 1.2 | 39-102 | 6’7 | Sr |
| 98 | Tres Tinkle #3 | 6.67 | Oregon St. | 6.0 | 2.3 | 48-147 | 6’8 | So |
| 99 | Riley LaChance #13 | 6.67 | Vanderbilt | 1.4 | 0.9 | 81-194 | 6’2 | Sr |
| 100 | Omer Yurtseven #14 | 6.67 | North Carolina St. | 12.8 | 1.1 | 22-43 | 7’0 | So |
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