Most brackets are in good shape after one day due to only two lower seeds winning. Of the 10 analytical systems used for the sample brackets explained in this Breitbart post, three systems went 15-1 on opening day and the other seven went 14-2.
The Value Add Top 3 rating, based on the Value Add rankings of the top 3 players on each team, missed only on Northwestern’s 68-66 win over Vanderbilt, picking the other 15 games correctly including the Middle Tennessee State upset of Minnesota and Xavier upset of Maryland.
The system, based on the www.kenpom.com ratings, adjusted up or down based by how much experience the website calculates for each team, and yields the same 15 correct picks as the Value Add Top 3.
The Value Add system that adjusts the www.kenpom.com rating by the calculated value of injured and returning players correctly picked the Northwestern win, as well as the Middle Tennessee State upset, but missed on Xavier due to the absence of the injured Edmond Sumner, who was one of the top players according to the system.
All of the other systems had the same 14-2 mark as Las Vegas and “going chalk,” the practice of simply picking the better seed in each game. Those systems, as outlined in the earlier pieces, including going based on the most NBA talent, hottest teams, adjustment for coach’s past tournaments, teams with venues closer to home, the style of play (e.g. 3-point shooting team can exploit defenses that allow them, and teams with a lot of steals best teams who give up a lot of turnovers). The “overall” is the average of all the other systems. Here are the missed picks through the opening day, and who each system picks as an eventual national champion.
| System | Wins | Champ | Incorrect Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value Add Top 3 | 15 | Villanova | Vanderbilt |
| Value Add Injury Adjusted | 15 | Gonzaga | Maryland |
| Experience (kenpom.com) | 15 | Villanova | Vanderbilt |
| Venue (home advantage) | 14 | Gonzaga | Minnesota, Vanderbilt |
| Vegas Odds | 14 | UNC | Maryland, Minnesota |
| Team Match-ups | 14 | Gonzaga | Minnesota, Vanderbilt |
| Overall Bracket | 14 | Gonzaga | Minnesota, Vanderbilt |
| KenPom + Coach’s Success | 14 | Gonzaga | Minnesota, Vanderbilt |
| hottest Teams | 14 | Villanova | Minnesota, Vanderbilt |
| Future NBA Talent | 14 | Kentucky | Nevada, Vanderbilt |
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