The NCAA’s release of the top 16 bids if March Madness started today left out Wisconsin, Wichita State, and SMU based on Value Add’s new adjustments for injured and returning players.
ESPN’s BPI rating made the first attempt to adjust team ratings for injuries, and Value Add now completes that task with much more precision — showing that Arizona and UNC get huge boosts from key returning players that could take either to a title. In real life how good a team is does not always equal the sum of the players values. For example, Oregon looks like a national contender after a blowout win over Arizona even though their actual player values only adds up to a 6-seed for some reason. But overall understanding if a player is stronger (due to returning players) or weaker (due to injuries) is key to adjusting and finding upsets.
Arizona’s actual Team Value Add is 38.90, 18th best in the country. However, we now adjust Value Add for any key players whose Value Add was held down because they missed games (any game you miss your value is 0.00 of course). Allonzo Trier’s Value Add is only 2.48 at Value Add due to missing the first 18 games due to a suspension. If he had played most of those games, his Value Add would project to be 7.39 points per game, meaning Arizona is really 4.91 points better than the true math would indicate, and with that adjustment they now calculate with a true team Value Add of 43.79, making them the seventh best team in the country.
We only adjust for players who would be worth at least an additional point if they had played most of the season to date, and the table of those players is below. We also subtract the total of any player who is out for the season or gone from the program (second list) and then provide the seeds teams should have in March Madness if we adjusted for both the additional players returning and the players lost.
The following are the 16 players who are currently playing for teams after missing substantial time — and as a result their Value Add in the database is less than they should produce per game, and they get a second rating on Value Add Basketball.
ESPN’s BPI system simply counts games in which one team or the other is shorthanded less important to both teams. The problem with this system is that a team that is missing a major player and overcomes it for a victory in turn gets less credit credit for the victory.
The race for Player of the Year is between only two people right now, with Josh Hart worth 13.02 points per game, while Frank Mason is just behind at 12.91. No other players is within a point-and-a-half of those two leaders.
| Player | Team | Value Add | Proj Missed Gms | If played all season |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allonzo Trier #35 | Arizona | 2.48 | 4.91 | 7.39 |
| Theo Pinson #1 | North Carolina | 2.23 | 3.57 | 5.8 |
| Josh Cunningham #0 | Dayton | 0.71 | 3.35 | 4.06 |
| Luke Nelson #10 | UC Irvine | 1.99 | 2.52 | 4.51 |
| Bennie Boatwright #25 | USC | 1.54 | 1.87 | 3.41 |
| David Collette #13 | Utah | 5.02 | 1.76 | 6.78 |
| Kyle Benton #25 | North Carolina Central | 4.4 | 1.7 | 6.1 |
| Joshua Braun #2 | Grand Canyon | 5.07 | 1.42 | 6.49 |
| Karachi Edo #4 | Fresno St. | 3.34 | 1.33 | 4.67 |
| KJ Feagin #2 | Santa Clara | 4.05 | 1.22 | 5.27 |
| Gian Clavell #3 | Colorado St. | 6.37 | 1.21 | 7.58 |
| Sam Schwietz #21 | UMBC | 1.7 | 1.12 | 2.82 |
| Jayson Tatum #0 | Duke | 5.11 | 1.1 | 6.21 |
| Dererk Pardon #5 | Northwestern | 5.12 | 1.07 | 6.19 |
| Sindarius Thornwell #0 | South Carolina | 11.27 | 1.06 | 12.33 |
| BJ Taylor #1 | UCF | 6.24 | 1.05 | 7.29 |
The Big East was devastated by point guards being lost for the season in recent games. The most devastating injury in the country was the loss of Edmond Sumner, who was worth 6.64 points per game. If you take those points away from Xavier, they actually calculate as just outside the tournament field. Obviously they will make the tournament based on their season to date, and other players may step up to make up for points lost to Sumner, but they join St. Joe’s, Creighton, Ohio, Indiana and Texas Southern as losing players worth at least three points a game. You can find the actual missing players by putting a slash / in the search field at Value Add Basketball.
Pts/ Game Lost to injury (how many points each injured player was worth)
1. Xavier 6.64
2. St. Joseph’s 5.45
3. Creighton 5.16
4. Ohio 3.56
5. Indiana 3.35
6. Texas Southern 3.23
7. UC Santa Barbara 2.37
8. Colorado St. 2.23
9. Tennessee 1.82
10. New Mexico St. 1.58
11. Portland 1.56
12. Illinois Chicago 1.36
13. Purdue 1.35
14. NJIT 1.33
15. Long Beach St. 1.31
16. Connecticut 1.29
17. Princeton 1.09
18. Rice 1.08
19. Ohio St. 1.06
20. James Madison 1
March Madness seeds if selected based on taking into account players lost to injury, transfer or suspension, as well as the projected Value Add of key players who missed games. A seed of 11.5 of 16.5 indicates teams that would need to win a play-in game in Dayton to keep that seed. These are not actual projects, as teams will get credit for games played before a key player was injured and be hurt by losses before a key player came back. However, this gives an idea of their strength heading into the tournament.
Seed Team Value Add v5.0 Pts/Game Conf
1 Gonzaga 49.06 WCC (actual No. 4 overall)
1 Virginia 47.69 ACC (actual No. 10 overall)
1 North Carolina 46.83 ACC (actual No. 5 overall)
1 Villanova 45.75 BE (actual No. 1 overall)
2 Louisville 44.82 ACC (actual No. 7 overall)
2 Florida 43.94 SEC (actual No. 11 overall)
2 Arizona 43.79 P12 (actual No. 6 overall)
2 Kentucky 43.03 SEC (actual No. 12 overall)
3 West Virginia 42.57 B12 (actual No. 14 overall)
3 Wichita St. 42.23 MVC
3 Baylor 42.21 B12 (actual No. 3 overall)
3 Kansas 42.17 B12 (actual No. 2 overall)
4 Southern Methodist 42.09 Amer
4 Wisconsin 41.97 B10
4 Duke 41.05 ACC (actual No. 16 overall)
4 Florida St. 39.65 ACC (actual No. 6 overall)
5 Purdue 39.62 B10
5 St. Mary’s 39.24 WCC
5 Butler 38.68 BE (actual No. 13 overall)
5 UCLA 38.51 P12 (actual No. 15 overall)
6 Oregon 37.51 P12 (actual No. 8 overall)
6 Cincinnati 37.36 Amer
6 Oklahoma St. 36.73 B12
6 Iowa St. 36.57 B12
7 Dayton 35.77 A10
7 Notre Dame 35.69 ACC
7 Wake Forest 35.32 ACC
7 Michigan 34.76 B10
8 South Carolina 34.76 SEC
8 Kansas St. 34.2 B12
8 Utah 33.21 P12
8 Northwestern 33.1 B10
9 Clemson 32.1 ACC
9 Marquette 31.83 BE
9 Texas Tech 31.7 B12
9 Maryland 31.67 B10
10 Minnesota 31.66 B10
10 Houston 31.46 Amer
10 Miami FL 31.13 ACC
10 Texas Christian 30.95 B12
11 Illinois St. 30.74 MVC
11 Creighton 30.39 BE
11.5 Virginia Commonwealth 30.37 A10
11.5 Syracuse 30.29 ACC
11.5 Rhode Island 30.25 A10
11.5 Southern California 30.15 P12
12 Middle Tennessee 28.85 CUSA
12 UNC Wilmington 28.61 CAA
12 Nevada 26.93 MWC
12 Belmont 25.89 OVC
13 Vermont 25.85 AE
13 Chattanooga 25.74 SC
13 Bucknell 25.15 Pat
13 Princeton 24.88 Ivy
14 Texas Arlington 24.54 SB
14 New Mexico St. 23.38 WAC
14 Valparaiso 22.62 Horz
14 Akron 22.53 MAC
15 Monmouth 22.43 MAAC
15 North Carolina Central 21.53 MEAC
15 Fort Wayne 21.24 Sum
15 UNC Asheville 20.9 BSth
16 UC Irvine 20.43 BW
16 Florida Gulf Coast 19.73 ASun
16.5 Eastern Washington 16.92 BSky
16.5 Texas A&M Corpus Christi 14.07 Slnd
16.5 Wagner 11.85 NEC
16.5 Texas Southern 10.9 SWAC