The simple three-step predictor correctly picked the Denver Broncos upset and the Carolina Panthers win to improve to 12-4 (75% correct) in Conference Championships and Super Bowls since 2009. And it projects a clear winner in the Super Bowl.
Few picked the Broncos due to a hobbled Peyton Manning being ranked 28th in QB EPA to give Tom Brady the clear quarterback edge. However, the post last week pointed out that the Broncos had the home field advantage and the defense with more Pick-6 interceptions (Broncos tied with Panthers for 1st in the league; Patriots last without any Pick-6s this year.)
The team with the edge in more of those criteria has won 12 of the last 16 championship games, with four Super Bowls during that time giving no edge due to one team having a higher rated QB and the other having a defense with more Pick-6s in the neutral site Super Bowl.
However, this year the simple test gives Carolina the clear edge. With no home advantage in Super Bowls, the teams come out even atop the Pick-6 rankings, but Cam Newton (ranked 9th in QB EPA) has a clear edge over Manning (28th).
The Broncos defense was enough to offset Brady’s edge Sunday, but the system says it will not be enough in Santa Clara. The two teams that have overcome the lower ratings quarterback and Pick-6 defenses are the New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers.
The following table shows each team to make it to an AFC or NFC title games since QB EPA debuted, their result, which of the three criteria predicted their win in the Conference title and Super Bowl, and if the predictor was correct.
| Pick-6, QB EPA, Home Advantages | Result | Conf Edge | SB Edge | Correct? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 Correct AFC, NFC, Carolina SB (2-0) | ||||
| Denver Broncos 1st, Peyton Manning 28th | won AFC | P6,Home | Yes | |
| New England Patriots 23rd, Tom Brady 11th | AFC | qb | ||
| Carolina Panthers 1st, Cam Newton 9th | won NFC | P6,Home | Yes. Favor SB | |
| Arizona Cardinals 5th, Carson Palmer 1st | NFC | qb | ||
| 2014 Correct AFC (1-1) | Result | Conf Edge | SB Edge | Correct? |
| Indianapolis Colts 16th, Andrew Luck 13th | AFC | P6 | ||
| New England Patriots 25th, Tom Brady 4th | won Super | Home,qb | qb | Yes |
| Green Bay Packers 3rd, Aaron Rodgers 2nd | NFC | P6,qb | ||
| Seattle Seahawks 7th, Russell Wilson 8th | won NFC | Home | P6 | No, even SB |
| 2013 Correct AFC, NFC, no edge SB (2-0) | Result | Conf Edge | SB Edge | Correct? |
| New England Patriots 11th, Tom Brady 12th | AFC | P6 | ||
| Denver Broncos 19th, Peyton Manning 1st | won AFC | Home,qb | qb | Yes |
| Seattle Seahawks 7th, Russell Wilson 11th | won Super | P6,Home, | P6 | Yes, even SB |
| San Francisco 49ers 11th, Colin Kaepernick 6th | NFC | qb | ||
| 2012 Correct SB, no edge AFC (1-1) | Result | Conf Edge | SB Edge | Correct? |
| Baltimore Ravens 13th, Joe Flacco 18th | won Super | TieP6 | TieP6,qb | Even, Yes SB |
| New England Patriots 13th, Tom Brady 2nd | AFC | TieP6,Home,qb | ||
| San Francisco 49ers 13th, Colin Kaepernick 20th | won NFC | P6 | TieP6 | No |
| Atlanta Falcons 21st, Matt Ryan 6th | NFC | Home,qb | ||
| 2011 AFC (1-2) | Result | Conf Edge | SB Edge | Correct? |
| New England Patriots 8th, Tom Brady 3rd | won AFC | P6,Home,qb | P6,qb | Yes |
| Baltimore Ravens 13th, Joe Flacco 12th | AFC | |||
| San Francisco 49ers 13th, Alex Smith 19th | NFC | P6,Home | ||
| New York Giants 25th, Eli Manning 11th | won Super | qb | No, No SB | |
| 2010 AFC, NFC, SB (3-0) | Result | Conf Edge | SB Edge | Correct? |
| Pittsburgh Steelers 2nd, Ben Roethlisberger 8th | won AFC | TieP6,Home,qb | TieP6 | Yes |
| New York Jets 2nd, Mark Sanchez 19th | AFC | TieP6, | ||
| Green Bay Packers 2nd, Aaron Rodgers 7th | won Super | P6,qb | TieP6,qb | Yes, Yes SB |
| Chicago Bears 20th, Jay Cutler 20th | NFC | Home | ||
| 2009 AFC, NFC, even SB (2-0) | Result | Conf Edge | SB Edge | Correct? |
| Indianapolis Colts 5th, Peyton Manning 1st | won AFC | P6,Home,qb | qb | Yes |
| New York Jets 16th, Mark Sanchez 26th | AFC | |||
| New Orleans Saints 1st, Drew Brees 3rd | won Super | P6,Home,qb | P6, | Yes, even SB |
| Minnesota Vikings 27th, Brett Favre 4th | NFC | |||
| 2008 even NFC (0-2) | Result | Conf Edge | SB Edge | Correct? |
| Baltimore Ravens 2nd, Joe Flacco 24th | AFC | P6,qb | ||
| Pittsburgh Steelers 7th, Ben Roethlisberger 26th | won Super | Home, | TieP6, | No, No SB |
| Arizona Cardinals 7th, Kurt Warner 7th | won NFC | TieP6,Home,qb | TieP6,qb | Even |
| Philadelphia Eagles 7th, Donovan McNabb 18th | NFC | TieP6, | ||
| 2007 AFC (1-2) | Result | Conf Edge | SB Edge | Correct? |
| New England Patriots 3rd, Tom Brady 1st | won AFC | P6,Home,qb | TieP6,qb | Yes |
| San Diego Chargers 7th, Philip Rivers 17th | AFC | |||
| New York Giants 3rd, Eli Manning 24th | won Super | P6, | TieP6, | No, No SB |
| Green Bay Packers 16th, Brett Favre 7th | NFC | Home,qb | ||
| 2006 AFC, NFC, even SB (2-0) | Result | Conf Edge | SB Edge | Correct? |
| Indianapolis Colts 26th, Peyton Manning 1st | won Super | TieP6,Home,qb | qb | Yes, even SB |
| New England Patriots 26th, Tom Brady 5th | AFC | TieP6, | ||
| Chicago Bears 15th, Rex Grossman 22nd | won NFC | P6,Home, | P6, | Yes |
| New Orleans Saints 26th, Drew Brees 2nd | NFC | qb |