Duke and Oregon are about 20 points better than opening day opponents Siena and Jackson State according to www.kenpom.com, but they are the two teams that could be hurt by up to 10 points a game by injuries. The table below shows the 50 best players on the bench for opening day, and how many points they are typically worth to their team based on www.valueaddbasketball.com.
The good news for Duke is that Amile Jefferson and Matt Jones (worth up to 10.64 addition points per game to the final score between them) nurse just minor injuries, so a check of Don’s Best daily injury report to see if they are playing could help determine if Duke is at full strength, or if not if there margin might be closer to single digits.
The problem for Oregon is more severe. Jordan Bell and Dylan Ennis (worth 10.55 points per game) sit indefinitely, and their back-ups are not as good as Duke’s, giving Jackson State a chance to keep the game much closer than the nearly 20-point margin you would normally expect.
The table below shows the 50 most valuable players who will or could be on the bench opening day and how long they should be out (“short” = short-term back anytime, “Indefin” = out indefinitely, “Dec” = back in December,
| Team/How Long Out | Player | Ht | Rnk | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona St./short | Goodman, Savon 11 | 6’6 | 412 | 3.84 |
| Arizona/Season | Smith, Ray | 6’7 | 125 | 6.09 |
| Auburn/Indef | Shamsid-Deen, Tahj 13 | 5’10 | 1034 | 2.02 |
| Baylor/Indef | Acuil, Joseph | 6’10 | 167 | 5.5 |
| Baylor/Indef | McClure, King | 6’3 | 917 | 2.23 |
| Butler/Dec | Gathers, Jordan | 6’3 | 1054 | 2 |
| Central Michigan/short | Fowler, Chris 15 | 6’1 | 232 | 4.91 |
| Chicago St./Dec | Owens, Clemmye 21 | 6’1 | 895 | 2.3 |
| Drexel/Dec | Overton, Miles 20 | 6’4 | 941 | 2.2 |
| Duke/short | Jefferson, Amile 21 | 6’9 | 88 | 6.61 |
| Duke/short | Jones, Matt 13 | 6’5 | 369 | 4.03 |
| Elon/short | Samson, Tanner 3 | 6’4 | 575 | 3.12 |
| Florida/Dec | Murphy, Alex 5 | 6’8 | 1062 | 2 |
| Georgia/short | Frazier, J.J. 30 | 5’10 | 73 | 7.01 |
| Gonzaga/short | Sabonis, Domantas 11 | 6’10 | 17 | 8.7 |
| Houston U/Indef | Rose, L.J. 5 | 6’4 | 1066 | 2 |
| Illinois/Dec | Nunn, Kendrick 25 | 6’3 | 285 | 4.59 |
| Illinois/Dec | Black, Leron 12 | 6’7 | 637 | 2.91 |
| Iowa St./Dec | Burton, Deonte 30 | 6’4 | 341 | 4.2 |
| Kansas/Indef | Diallo, Cheick | 6’9 | 78 | 6.8 |
| Louisiana St./Dec | Victor, Craig 3 | 6’7 | 806 | 2.5 |
| Maryland/Season | Wiley, Dion 5 | 6’4 | 1191 | 1.8 |
| Michigan St./Indef | Clark, Marvin 0 | 6’6 | 529 | 3.27 |
| Mississippi St./short | Newman, Malik | 6’3 | 31 | 8.1 |
| Montana/Indef | Dunn, Mario 1 | 6’0 | 571 | 3.14 |
| Nevada/Dec | Marshall, Marcus 11 | 6’3 | 418 | 3.81 |
| North Carolina/Dec | Paige, Marcus 5 | 6’1 | 16 | 8.81 |
| Northern Colorado/Dec | Anglin, Dallas 4 | 6’2 | 640 | 2.9 |
| Northwestern/Season | Law, Vic 4 | 6’7 | 458 | 3.56 |
| Oakland/Dec | Dorsey-Walker, Sherron 4 | 6’4 | 852 | 2.4 |
| Oklahoma St./short | Evans, Jawun | 6’0 | 421 | 3.79 |
| Oregon/Indef | Bell, Jordan 1 | 6’7 | 134 | 5.91 |
| Oregon/Indef | Ennis, Dylan 31 | 6’2 | 276 | 4.64 |
| Pittsburgh/short | Wilson, Damon | 6’4 | 1018 | 2.06 |
| Rhode Island/Dec | Iverson, Kuran 23 | 6’10 | 854 | 2.4 |
| Rider/short | Sadler, Zedric 2 | 6’3 | 483 | 3.47 |
| Rutgers/short | Sanders, Corey | 6’1 | 897 | 2.29 |
| Southern Methodist/Dec | Ojeleye, Semi 30 | 6’8 | 523 | 3.3 |
| Southern Methodist/Season | Emelogu, Ben 21 | 6’5 | 1098 | 1.95 |
| St. Johns/Season | LoVett, Marcus | 6’0 | 1003 | 2.09 |
| Stanford/Indef | Allen, Marcus 15 | 6’3 | 410 | 3.84 |
| Stanford/Season | Cartwright, Robert 2 | 6’2 | 922 | 2.22 |
| Tennessee Martin/Dec | Woodson, Dominic 55 | 6’10 | 1070 | 2 |
| Texas Christian/Season | Williams, Kenrich 34 | 6’7 | 128 | 6.01 |
| Utah St./Quit | Collette, David 13 | 6’8 | 71 | 7.04 |
| Wake Forest/Dec | Miller-McIntyre, Codi 0 | 6’3 | 540 | 3.22 |
| Wake Forest/Indef | Hudson, Cornelius 25 | 6’6 | 1232 | 1.74 |
| Western Michigan/Indef | Tava, Connar 2 | 6’6 | 587 | 3.07 |
| WICHITA St./Dec | Frankamp, Conner | 6’0 | 1053 | 2 |
| Wisconsin Green Bay/short | Love, Carrington 12 | 6’1 | 556 | 3.19 |
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