Notre Dame-Georgia Tech and BYU-UCLA highlight this Saturday’s college football action.
The flagship universities for the two major religions won on late, long passes and now challenge our picks for ACC and Pac-12 champions last Saturday, with the winners thinking national championship. Five Big Ten-ACC games and six Pac-12-Mountain West games will impact conference rankings.
I picked Georgia Tech as a surprise playoff team, but only give them a two-point edge in their trip to Notre Dame, the Catholic flagship in the US. I picked UCLA to win the Pac-12, and the Bruins host the flagship of the Church of Latter Day Saints in a Brigham Young team that won twice on late bombs into the end zone.
A season-ending injury to Notre Dame (#8 AP) quarterback Malik Zaire seemed to end national title hopes, but back-up DeShone Kizer looked great in the comeback win, bringing back memories of Ohio State winning the title last year under similar circumstances. Georgia Tech (#14 AP) won by an average of 67-8 in their first two games, and if the Irish can stop them they will be in heavy consideration for the playoffs.
If No. 19 BYU follows two miracle come-from-behind wins with an undefeated season that includes road wins at No. 10 UCLA of the Pac-12 Saturday and later No. 22 Missouri of the SEC they would very likely make the four-team playoff. We have them as 9-point underdogs against the Bruins.
Here are the match-ups of all FBS teams listed by conference, with our projected margin and their percent chance of winning. Our conference standings to date are: 1). SEC +12 points better than average FBS team, 2). Big 12 +10, 3). Big Ten +9, 4). Pac-12 +8, 5). ACC +6, 6). American Athletic +0, 7). CUSA -7, 8). MAC -7, 9). Mountain West -11, 10). Sun Belt -15.
ACC: Five games against Big Ten and Georgia Tech vs. Notre Dame.
| Team | Conf | H | Pred | Win% | Opponent | Opp conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College | ACC +6 | H | -7 | 36% | Florida St | ACC +6 |
| Clemson | ACC +6 | 7 | 64% | Louisville | ACC +6 | |
| Duke | ACC +6 | H | 0 | 50% | Northwestern | Big Ten +9 |
| Florida St | ACC +6 | 7 | 64% | Boston College | ACC +6 | |
| Georgia Tech | ACC +6 | 2 | 53% | Notre Dame | Ind +0 | |
| Louisville | ACC +6 | H | -7 | 36% | Clemson | ACC +6 |
| Miami FL | ACC +6 | H | -4 | 40% | Nebraska | Big Ten +9 |
| NC State | ACC +6 | 10 | 76% | Old Dominion | CUSA – 7 | |
| North Carolina | ACC +6 | H | 0 | 50% | Illinois | Big Ten +9 |
| Pittsburgh | ACC +6 | -9 | 34% | Iowa | Big Ten +9 | |
| Syracuse | ACC +6 | H | 2 | 55% | C Michigan | Mid-Am -7 |
| Virginia | ACC +6 | H | 25 | 95% | William & Mary | |
| Virginia Tech | ACC +6 | 4 | 60% | Purdue | Big Ten +9 | |
| Wake Forest | ACC +6 | 4 | 60% | Army | ind +0 |
American Athletic: South Florida at Maryland may be best shot to build on last week, but all playing Power 5 conferences are double digit underdogs.
| Team | Conf | Pred | Win% | Opponent | Opp conf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | Amer +0 | 17 | 85% | Miami OH | Mid-Am -7 | |
| Connecticut | Amer +0 | -24 | 5% | Missouri | SEC +12 | |
| East Carolina | Amer +0 | -2 | 47% | Navy | Amer +0 | |
| Houston | Amer +0 | 0 | 0% | Idle | ||
| Memphis | Amer +0 | 12 | 79% | Bowling Green | Mid-Am -7 | |
| Navy | Amer +0 | H | 2 | 53% | East Carolina | Amer +0 |
| SMU | Amer +0 | -34 | 1% | TCU | Big 12 +10 | |
| South Florida | Amer +0 | -12 | 21% | Maryland | Big Ten +9 | |
| Temple | Amer +0 | 16 | 84% | Massachusetts | Mid-Am -7 | |
| Tulane | Amer +0 | H | 19 | 86% | Maine | |
| Tulsa | Amer +0 | -25 | 4% | Oklahoma | Big 12 +10 | |
| UCF | Amer +0 | H | 32 | 97% | Furman |
Big 12: Texas needs to win at home vs. Cal.
| Team | Conf | Pred | Win% | Opponent | Opp conf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor | Big 12 +10 | 0 | 0% | Idle | ||
| Iowa St | Big 12 +10 | -9 | 34% | Toledo | Mid-Am -7 | |
| Kansas | Big 12 +10 | 0 | 0% | Idle | ||
| Kansas St | Big 12 +10 | H | 15 | 84% | Louisiana Tech | CUSA – 7 |
| Oklahoma | Big 12 +10 | H | 25 | 96% | Tulsa | Amer +0 |
| Oklahoma St | Big 12 +10 | H | 19 | 88% | UT San Antonio | CUSA – 7 |
| TCU | Big 12 +10 | H | 34 | 99% | SMU | Amer +0 |
| Texas | Big 12 +10 | H | 6 | 63% | California | Pac 12 +8 |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 +10 | -13 | 19% | Arkansas | SEC +12 | |
| West Virginia | Big 12 +10 | 0 | 0% | Idle |
Big Ten: We have Illinois, Indiana and Northwestern all in exact toss-ups (+0), and Purdue and Nebraska as very tight games. With five virtual toss-ups, this week will prove a lot one way or the other.
| Team | Conf | Pred | Win% | Opponent | Opp conf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | Big Ten +9 | 0 | 50% | North Carolina | ACC +6 | |
| Indiana | Big Ten +9 | H | 0 | 50% | W Kentucky | CUSA – 7 |
| Iowa | Big Ten +9 | H | 9 | 66% | Pittsburgh | ACC +6 |
| Maryland | Big Ten +9 | H | 12 | 79% | South Florida | Amer +0 |
| Michigan | Big Ten +9 | H | 31 | 97% | UNLV | Mt West -11 |
| Michigan St | Big Ten +9 | H | 32 | 97% | Air Force | Mt West -11 |
| Minnesota | Big Ten +9 | H | 27 | 96% | Kent | Mid-Am -7 |
| Nebraska | Big Ten +9 | 4 | 60% | Miami FL | ACC +6 | |
| Northwestern | Big Ten +9 | 0 | 50% | Duke | ACC +6 | |
| Ohio St | Big Ten +9 | H | 29 | 96% | N Illinois | Mid-Am -7 |
| Penn St | Big Ten +9 | H | 4 | 60% | Rutgers | Big Ten +9 |
| Purdue | Big Ten +9 | H | -4 | 40% | Virginia Tech | ACC +6 |
| Rutgers | Big Ten +9 | -4 | 40% | Penn St | Big Ten +9 | |
| Wisconsin | Big Ten +9 | H | 35 | 99% | Troy | SunB -15 |
Conference USA: They get shots at three of the five Power Conferences.
| Team | Conf | Pred | Win% | Opponent | Opp conf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte | CUSA – 7 | -17 | 14% | MTSU | CUSA – 7 | |
| FL Atlantic | CUSA – 7 | H | -1 | 48% | Buffalo | Mid-Am -7 |
| Florida Intl | CUSA – 7 | H | 25 | 92% | NC Central | |
| Louisiana Tech | CUSA – 7 | -15 | 16% | Kansas St | Big 12 +10 | |
| Marshall | CUSA – 7 | H | 45 | 100% | Norfolk St | |
| MTSU | CUSA – 7 | H | 17 | 86% | Charlotte | CUSA – 7 |
| North Texas | CUSA – 7 | H | -11 | 23% | Rice | CUSA – 7 |
| Old Dominion | CUSA – 7 | H | -10 | 24% | NC State | ACC +6 |
| Rice | CUSA – 7 | 11 | 77% | North Texas | CUSA – 7 | |
| Southern Miss | CUSA – 7 | -2 | 47% | Texas St | SunB -15 | |
| UT San Antonio | CUSA – 7 | -19 | 12% | Oklahoma St | Big 12 +10 | |
| UTEP | CUSA – 7 | 13 | 81% | New Mexico St | SunB -15 | |
| W Kentucky | CUSA – 7 | 0 | 50% | Indiana | Big Ten +9 |
Independents: BYU and Notre Dame thinking playoff.
| Team | Conf | Pred | Win% | Opponent | Opp conf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Army | ind +0 | H | -4 | 40% | Wake Forest | ACC +6 |
| BYU | Ind +0 | -9 | 26% | UCLA | Pac 12 +8 | |
| Notre Dame | Ind +0 | H | -2 | 47% | Georgia Tech | ACC +6 |
MAC: A Central Michigan win at Syracuse would built on a big last week.
| Team | Conf | Pred | Win% | Opponent | Opp conf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akron | Mid-Am -7 | H | 47 | 100% | Savannah St | |
| Ball St | Mid-Am -7 | 7 | 64% | E Michigan | Mid-Am -7 | |
| Bowling Green | Mid-Am -7 | H | -12 | 21% | Memphis | Amer +0 |
| Buffalo | Mid-Am -7 | 1 | 52% | FL Atlantic | CUSA – 7 | |
| C Michigan | Mid-Am -7 | -2 | 45% | Syracuse | ACC +6 | |
| E Michigan | Mid-Am -7 | H | -7 | 36% | Ball St | Mid-Am -7 |
| Kent | Mid-Am -7 | -27 | 4% | Minnesota | Big Ten +9 | |
| Massachusetts | Mid-Am -7 | H | -16 | 16% | Temple | Amer +0 |
| Miami OH | Mid-Am -7 | H | -17 | 15% | Cincinnati | Amer +0 |
| N Illinois | Mid-Am -7 | -29 | 4% | Ohio St | Big Ten +9 | |
| Ohio | Mid-Am -7 | H | 11 | 71% | SE Louisiana | |
| Toledo | Mid-Am -7 | H | 9 | 66% | Iowa St | Big 12 +10 |
| W Michigan | Mid-Am -7 | H | 36 | 98% | Murray St |
Mountain West: It looks like another tough week – they need a couple of upsets after going 1-11 last year.
| Team | Conf | Pred | Win% | Opponent | Opp conf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force | Mt West -11 | -32 | 3% | Michigan St | Big Ten +9 | |
| Boise St | Mt West -11 | H | 23 | 95% | Idaho St | SunB -15 |
| Colorado St | Mt West -11 | -2 | 47% | Colorado | Pac 12 +8 | |
| Fresno St | Mt West -11 | H | -19 | 10% | Utah | Pac 12 +8 |
| Hawaii | Mt West -11 | H | 17 | 89% | UC Davis | |
| Nevada | Mt West -11 | -24 | 5% | Texas A&M | SEC +12 | |
| New Mexico | Mt West -11 | -31 | 3% | Arizona St | Pac 12 +8 | |
| San Diego St | Mt West -11 | H | 6 | 63% | South Alabama | SunB -15 |
| San Jose St | Mt West -11 | -15 | 19% | Oregon St | Pac 12 +8 | |
| UNLV | Mt West -11 | -31 | 3% | Michigan | Big Ten +9 | |
| Utah St | Mt West -11 | -12 | 21% | Washington | Pac 12 +8 | |
| Wyoming | Mt West -11 | -21 | 8% | Washington St | Pac 12 +8 |
Pac-12: The two most populous states face off as Cal (39 million people) travels to Texas (27 million). Colorado must hold off Colorado State in one of six clashes with the Mountain West.
| Team | Conf | Pred | Win% | Opponent | Opp conf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Pac 12 +8 | H | 30 | 98% | Northern Arizona | |
| Arizona St | Pac 12 +8 | H | 31 | 97% | New Mexico | Mt West -11 |
| California | Pac 12 +8 | -6 | 37% | Texas | Big 12 +10 | |
| Colorado | Pac 12 +8 | H | 2 | 53% | Colorado St | Mt West -11 |
| Oregon | Pac 12 +8 | H | 47 | 99% | Georgia St | SunB -15 |
| Oregon St | Pac 12 +8 | H | 15 | 81% | San Jose St | Mt West -11 |
| Stanford | Pac 12 +8 | -3 | 43% | USC | Pac 12 +8 | |
| UCLA | Pac 12 +8 | H | 9 | 74% | BYU | Ind +0 |
| USC | Pac 12 +8 | H | 3 | 57% | Stanford | Pac 12 +8 |
| Utah | Pac 12 +8 | 19 | 90% | Fresno St | Mt West -11 | |
| Washington | Pac 12 +8 | H | 12 | 79% | Utah St | Mt West -11 |
| Washington St | Pac 12 +8 | H | 21 | 92% | Wyoming | Mt West -11 |
SEC: After stumbling last week, the SEC faces only three (easy) non-conference opponents.
| Team | Conf | Pred | Win% | Opponent | Opp conf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | SEC +12 | H | 11 | 78% | Mississippi | SEC +12 |
| Arkansas | SEC +12 | H | 13 | 81% | Texas Tech | Big 12 +10 |
| Auburn | SEC +12 | -3 | 42% | LSU | SEC +12 | |
| Florida | SEC +12 | 4 | 60% | Kentucky | SEC +12 | |
| Georgia | SEC +12 | H | 14 | 82% | South Carolina | SEC +12 |
| Kentucky | SEC +12 | H | -4 | 40% | Florida | SEC +12 |
| LSU | SEC +12 | H | 3 | 58% | Auburn | SEC +12 |
| Mississippi | SEC +12 | -11 | 22% | Alabama | SEC +12 | |
| Mississippi St | SEC +12 | H | 36 | 100% | Northwestern LA | |
| Missouri | SEC +12 | H | 24 | 95% | Connecticut | Amer +0 |
| South Carolina | SEC +12 | -14 | 18% | Georgia | SEC +12 | |
| Tennessee | SEC +12 | H | 34 | 100% | W Carolina | |
| Texas A&M | SEC +12 | H | 24 | 95% | Nevada | Mt West -11 |
| Vanderbilt | SEC +12 | H | 39 | 100% | Austin Peay |
Sun Belt: New Mexico State, South Alabama, and Texas State are the three teams with a chance.
| Team | Conf | Pred | Win% | Opponent | Opp conf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Appalachian St | SunB -15 | 0 | 0% | Idle | ||
| Arkansas St | SunB -15 | H | 10 | 79% | Missouri St | |
| Ga Southern | SunB -15 | H | 20 | 91% | Citadel | |
| Georgia St | SunB -15 | -47 | 1% | Oregon | Pac 12 +8 | |
| Idaho | SunB -15 | H | 0 | 50% | Wofford | |
| New Mexico St | SunB -15 | H | -13 | 19% | UTEP | CUSA – 7 |
| South Alabama | SunB -15 | -6 | 37% | San Diego St | Mt West -11 | |
| Texas St | SunB -15 | H | 2 | 53% | Southern Miss | CUSA – 7 |
| Troy | SunB -15 | -35 | 1% | Wisconsin | Big Ten +9 | |
| ULL | SunB -15 | 0 | 0% | Idle | ||
| ULM | SunB -15 | 0 | 0% | Idle |
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