College Football Saturday Preview

Conference USA surged to just three points below the FBS average (-3, 6th of 10), while the Pac-12 plummeted (+3). If they really rank that good and bad respectively, CUSA could sneak out a 7-6 record this week and the Pac-12’s Oregon could lose at Michigan State.

1. SEC (+16): Tennessee projects to beat Oklahoma by 3.

2. Big 12 (+9): Iowa State joins Oklahoma as a three-point underdog with a chance to repeat last year’s upset of Iowa. Kansas enters its weekend matchup a 6-point underdog against perhaps the best non-Power Conference team—Memphis.

3. ACC (+7): A Virginia upset of Notre Dame (-5) in the only competitive non-conference game would boost the ACC.

4. Big Ten (+7): Iowa needs revenge over Iowa State, while Indiana must avoid an upset by Florida International. Michigan State gives the Big Ten a third 3-point favorite—that is if the Pac-12 is as bad as it was last year.

5. Pac-12 (+3): The Pac-12’s poor showing last week dragged Oregon down enough to make them a 3-point underdog at Michigan State.

It is doubtful the Pac-12 is as bad as they played last week. But if they have regressed Oregon could lose at Michigan State. Arizona, Cal, Colorado, and Utah are solid favorites most places but narrow favorites in this model based on last week.

6. CUSA (-3): If the Conference is as good as last week, Florida International, Louisiana Tech, and Rice would all have shots at upsets. If not, they could come back to earth.

7. Mountain West (-4): The big game is Boise State against BYU, both winners of narrow games last week. Colorado State, Nevada, San Diego State, and Utah State are all slight underdogs against Power Conference teams.

8. American Athletic (-4): The American hopes for wins by Connecticut (vs. Army), Memphis (vs. Kansas), and/or SMU (vs. North Texas).

9. Mid-American (-13): UMass QB Blake Frohnapfel is the state’s top athlete in the soon-to-be released list at www.bestreturningplayers.com, and hopes for an upset of Colorado. He has been called the best quarterback you have never heard of—and offers the biggest chance for an upset by the conference.

10. Sun Belt (-17): Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Troy, and/or New Mexico State need to pull out wins.