Conference USA surged to just three points below the FBS average (-3, 6th of 10), while the Pac-12 plummeted (+3). If they really rank that good and bad respectively, CUSA could sneak out a 7-6 record this week and the Pac-12’s Oregon could lose at Michigan State.
1. SEC (+16): Tennessee projects to beat Oklahoma by 3.
2. Big 12 (+9): Iowa State joins Oklahoma as a three-point underdog with a chance to repeat last year’s upset of Iowa. Kansas enters its weekend matchup a 6-point underdog against perhaps the best non-Power Conference team—Memphis.
3. ACC (+7): A Virginia upset of Notre Dame (-5) in the only competitive non-conference game would boost the ACC.
4. Big Ten (+7): Iowa needs revenge over Iowa State, while Indiana must avoid an upset by Florida International. Michigan State gives the Big Ten a third 3-point favorite—that is if the Pac-12 is as bad as it was last year.
5. Pac-12 (+3): The Pac-12’s poor showing last week dragged Oregon down enough to make them a 3-point underdog at Michigan State.
It is doubtful the Pac-12 is as bad as they played last week. But if they have regressed Oregon could lose at Michigan State. Arizona, Cal, Colorado, and Utah are solid favorites most places but narrow favorites in this model based on last week.
6. CUSA (-3): If the Conference is as good as last week, Florida International, Louisiana Tech, and Rice would all have shots at upsets. If not, they could come back to earth.
7. Mountain West (-4): The big game is Boise State against BYU, both winners of narrow games last week. Colorado State, Nevada, San Diego State, and Utah State are all slight underdogs against Power Conference teams.
8. American Athletic (-4): The American hopes for wins by Connecticut (vs. Army), Memphis (vs. Kansas), and/or SMU (vs. North Texas).
9. Mid-American (-13): UMass QB Blake Frohnapfel is the state’s top athlete in the soon-to-be released list at www.bestreturningplayers.com, and hopes for an upset of Colorado. He has been called the best quarterback you have never heard of—and offers the biggest chance for an upset by the conference.
10. Sun Belt (-17): Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Troy, and/or New Mexico State need to pull out wins.
| Team | September 12 opp | Margin | Pwin | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College | Howard | 43 | 100% | 1:00pm ET |
| Clemson | Appalachian St | 31 | 98% | 12:30pm ET |
| Duke | NC Central | 39 | 100% | 6:00pm ET |
| Florida St | South Florida | 30 | 98% | 11:30am ET |
| Georgia Tech | Tulane | 30 | 98% | 3:30pm ET |
| Louisville | Houston | 13 | 83% | 12:00pm ET |
| Miami FL | FL Atlantic | 12 | 80% | Friday |
| NC State | E Kentucky | 28 | 97% | 6:00pm ET |
| North Carolina | NC A&T | 31 | 99% | 6:00pm ET |
| Pittsburgh | Akron | 16 | 85% | 6:00pm ET |
| Syracuse | Wake Forest | 5 | 65% | 12:30pm ET |
| Virginia | Notre Dame | -5 | 36% | 3:30pm ET |
| Virginia Tech | Furman | 33 | 99% | 3:30pm ET |
| Wake Forest | Syracuse | -5 | 35% | 12:30pm ET |
| ACC 12-2 projected | Average +22 favorite | 22 | 11.73 | |
| Cincinnati | Temple | 5 | 63% | 8:00pm ET |
| Connecticut | Army | 3 | 55% | 12:00pm ET |
| East Carolina | Florida | -14 | 16% | 7:00pm ET |
| Houston | Louisville | -13 | 17% | 12:00pm ET |
| Memphis | Kansas | 6 | 70% | 7:00pm ET |
| Navy | Idle | 1 | 0% | NA |
| SMU | North Texas | -7 | 28% | 7:00pm ET |
| South Florida | Florida St | -30 | 2% | 11:30am ET |
| Temple | Cincinnati | -5 | 37% | 8:00pm ET |
| Tulane | Georgia Tech | -30 | 2% | 3:30pm ET |
| Tulsa | New Mexico | -3 | 44% | 8:00pm ET |
| UCF | Stanford | -10 | 26% | 10:30pm ET |
| American 4-7 | Average -8 underdog | -8 | 3.6 | |
| Baylor | Lamar | 44 | 100% | 7:30pm ET |
| Iowa St | Iowa | -3 | 45% | 4:45pm ET |
| Kansas | Memphis | -6 | 30% | 7:00pm ET |
| Kansas St | UT San Antonio | 17 | 94% | 12:00pm ET |
| Oklahoma | Tennessee | -3 | 44% | 6:00pm ET |
| Oklahoma St | Cent Arkansas | 30 | 98% | 7:30pm ET |
| TCU | SF Austin | 43 | 100% | 3:30pm ET |
| Texas | Rice | 3 | 56% | 8:00pm ET |
| Texas Tech | UTEP | 7 | 72% | 3:00pm ET |
| West Virginia | Liberty | 30 | 98% | 3:00pm ET |
| Big 12 7-3 | Average +16 favorite | 16 | 7.37 | |
| Illinois | W Illinois | 10 | 76% | 12:00pm ET |
| Indiana | Florida Intl | 3 | 56% | 8:00pm ET |
| Iowa | Iowa St | 3 | 55% | 4:45pm ET |
| Maryland | Bowling Green | 15 | 85% | 12:00pm ET |
| Michigan | Oregon St | 11 | 75% | 12:00pm ET |
| Michigan St | Oregon | 3 | 56% | 8:00pm ET |
| Minnesota | Colorado St | 5 | 64% | 3:30pm ET |
| Nebraska | South Alabama | 25 | 95% | 8:00pm ET |
| Northwestern | E Illinois | 28 | 97% | 4:00pm ET |
| Ohio St | Hawaii | 35 | 99% | 3:30pm ET |
| Penn St | Buffalo | 16 | 85% | 12:00pm ET |
| Purdue | Indiana St | 7 | 73% | 12:00pm ET |
| Rutgers | Washington St | 11 | 75% | 3:30pm ET |
| Wisconsin | Miami OH | 34 | 99% | 12:00pm ET |
| Big Ten 11-3 | Average +15 favorite | 15 | 10.9 | |
| Charlotte | Presbyterian | 6 | 53% | 12:00pm ET |
| FL Atlantic | Miami FL | -12 | 20% | Friday |
| Florida Intl | Indiana | -3 | 44% | 8:00pm ET |
| Louisiana Tech | W Kentucky | 2 | 55% | Lost 38-41 |
| Marshall | Ohio | 24 | 95% | 7:00pm ET |
| MTSU | Alabama | -33 | 2% | 4:00pm ET |
| North Texas | SMU | 7 | 72% | 7:00pm ET |
| Old Dominion | Norfolk St | 33 | 97% | 7:00pm ET |
| Rice | Texas | -3 | 44% | 8:00pm ET |
| Southern Miss | Austin Peay | 40 | 99% | 3:30pm ET |
| UT San Antonio | Kansas St | -17 | 6% | 12:00pm ET |
| UTEP | Texas Tech | -7 | 28% | 3:00pm ET |
| W Kentucky | Louisiana Tech | -2 | 45% | Won 41-38 |
| CUSA 7-6 | Average +3 favorite | 3 | 6.6 | |
| Army | Connecticut | -3 | 45% | 12:00pm ET |
| BYU | Boise St | -1 | 47% | 10:15pm ET |
| Notre Dame | Virginia | 5 | 64% | 3:30pm ET |
| Independent 2-1 | Average Even | 0 | 1.56 | |
| Akron | Pittsburgh | -16 | 15% | 6:00pm ET |
| Ball St | Texas A&M | -29 | 3% | 7:00pm ET |
| Bowling Green | Maryland | -15 | 15% | 12:00pm ET |
| Buffalo | Penn St | -16 | 15% | 12:00pm ET |
| C Michigan | Monmouth NJ | 27 | 96% | 3:00pm ET |
| E Michigan | Wyoming | -12 | 20% | 4:00pm ET |
| Kent | Delaware St | 31 | 99% | 6:00pm ET |
| Massachusetts | Colorado | -7 | 28% | 2:00pm ET |
| Miami OH | Wisconsin | -34 | 1% | 12:00pm ET |
| N Illinois | Murray St | 33 | 99% | 3:30pm ET |
| Ohio | Marshall | -24 | 5% | 7:00pm ET |
| Toledo | Arkansas | -25 | 5% | 4:00pm ET |
| W Michigan | Ga Southern | -2 | 44% | 6:00pm ET |
| Mid-Am 4-9 | Averate -7 underdog | -7 | 4.45 | |
| Air Force | San Jose St | 8 | 73% | 10:15pm ET |
| Boise St | BYU | 1 | 53% | 10:15pm ET |
| Colorado St | Minnesota | -5 | 36% | 3:30pm ET |
| Fresno St | Mississippi | -28 | 3% | 3:30pm ET |
| Hawaii | Ohio St | -35 | 1% | 3:30pm ET |
| Nevada | Arizona | -5 | 36% | 7:00pm ET |
| New Mexico | Tulsa | 3 | 56% | 8:00pm ET |
| San Diego St | California | -1 | 47% | 5:00pm ET |
| San Jose St | Air Force | -8 | 27% | 10:15pm ET |
| UNLV | UCLA | -22 | 5% | 10:30pm ET |
| Utah St | Utah | -5 | 37% | Friday |
| Wyoming | E Michigan | 12 | 80% | 4:00pm ET |
| Mt West 4-8 | Average -7 underdog | -7 | 4.54 | |
| Arizona | Nevada | 5 | 64% | 7:00pm ET |
| Arizona St | Cal Poly SLO | 21 | 95% | 11:00pm ET |
| California | San Diego St | 1 | 53% | 5:00pm ET |
| Colorado | Massachusetts | 7 | 72% | 2:00pm ET |
| Oregon | Michigan St | -3 | 44% | 8:00pm ET |
| Oregon St | Michigan | -11 | 25% | 12:00pm ET |
| Stanford | UCF | 10 | 74% | 10:30pm ET |
| UCLA | UNLV | 22 | 95% | 10:30pm ET |
| USC | Idaho | 34 | 98% | 8:00pm ET |
| Utah | Utah St | 5 | 63% | Friday |
| Washington | CS Sacramento | 22 | 97% | 2:00pm ET |
| Washington St | Rutgers | -11 | 25% | 3:30pm ET |
| Pac 12 8-4 | Average +9 favorite | 9 | 8.05 | |
| Alabama | MTSU | 33 | 98% | 4:00pm ET |
| Arkansas | Toledo | 25 | 95% | 4:00pm ET |
| Auburn | Jacksonville St | 34 | 99% | 12:00pm ET |
| Florida | East Carolina | 14 | 84% | 7:00pm ET |
| Georgia | Vanderbilt | 24 | 95% | 3:30pm ET |
| Kentucky | South Carolina | -7 | 27% | 7:30pm ET |
| LSU | Mississippi St | -3 | 44% | 9:15pm ET |
| Mississippi | Fresno St | 28 | 97% | 3:30pm ET |
| Mississippi St | LSU | 3 | 56% | 9:15pm ET |
| Missouri | Arkansas St | 24 | 95% | 7:00pm ET |
| South Carolina | Kentucky | 7 | 73% | 7:30pm ET |
| Tennessee | Oklahoma | 3 | 56% | 6:00pm ET |
| Texas A&M | Ball St | 29 | 97% | 7:00pm ET |
| Vanderbilt | Georgia | -24 | 5% | 3:30pm ET |
| SEC 10-4 | Average +14 favorite | 14 | 10.21 | |
| Appalachian St | Clemson | -31 | 2% | 12:30pm ET |
| Arkansas St | Missouri | -24 | 5% | 7:00pm ET |
| Ga Southern | W Michigan | 2 | 56% | 6:00pm ET |
| Georgia St | New Mexico St | -4 | 38% | 8:00pm ET |
| Idaho | USC | -34 | 2% | 8:00pm ET |
| New Mexico St | Georgia St | 4 | 62% | 8:00pm ET |
| South Alabama | Nebraska | -25 | 5% | 8:00pm ET |
| Texas St | Prairie View | 27 | 97% | 7:00pm ET |
| Troy | Charleston So | 2 | 56% | 7:00pm ET |
| ULL | Northwestern LA | 15 | 84% | 7:00pm ET |
| ULM | Nicholls St | 37 | 100% | 7:00pm ET |
| SunB 5-6 | Average -3 underdog | -3 | 5.07 |
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