Texas A&M ran No. 15 Arizona State off a neutral field as the Pac-12 imploded this weekend.
The conference projected to go 10-2 instead went 7-5 with stunning losses to Hawaii, Northwestern, and non-FBS Portland State to fall to a distant fifth in the conference rankings.
Here’s how this weekend’s play impacted the conferences:
1. SEC improves from +15 to +16 points better than average FBS team
2. Big 12 stays at +9
3. Big 10 stays at +7
4. ACC stays at +7
5. Pac-12 drops from +11 to +3 after registering four of the six worst losses of Week 1
(See separate post for five non-Power Conferences).
| Rnk | Conf | Biggest Disappoinments | Chance | Final | Final All | Sqrt | Exceed | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pac 12 +11 | Washington St (home) | 97% | 17 | 24 | -2.6 | -7.9 | Portland St |
| 2 | Mt West -6 | Wyoming (home) | 91% | 13 | 24 | -3.3 | -7.9 | North Dakota |
| 3 | Pac 12 +11 | Stanford | 83% | 6 | 16 | -3.2 | -6.9 | Northwestern (home) |
| 4 | Big Ten +7 | Penn St | 70% | 10 | 27 | -4.1 | -6.8 | Temple (home) |
| 5 | Pac 12 +11 | Arizona St (neutral) | 52% | 17 | 38 | -4.6 | -5.6 | Texas A&M |
| 6 | Pac 12 +11 | Colorado | 66% | 20 | 28 | -2.8 | -5.3 | Hawaii (home) |
| 7 | Amer -7 | UCF (home) | 86% | 14 | 15 | -1.0 | -5.1 | Florida Intl |
| 8 | Big Ten +7 | Nebraska (home) | 72% | 28 | 33 | -2.2 | -4.9 | BYU |
| 9 | SunB -14 | Georgia St (home) | 67% | 20 | 23 | -1.7 | -4.4 | Charlotte |
| 10 | Big 12 +9 | Texas | 39% | 3 | 38 | -5.9 | -3.9 | Notre Dame (home) |
The “Exceed” number calculates how much better or worse a team did than expected after comparing the square root of the victory margin or defeat against the predicted result at www.masseyratings.com.
The SEC more than backed up the preseason ranking of playing +15 points better than the average FBS team. The conference went 12-1 to top the 10.8 projected wins and rank highest in most games won by more than expected (a positive exceed number), including Alabama beating No. 20 Wisconsin of the Big Ten on a neutral field.
The Big Ten, ACC, and Big 12 all experienced a combination of good and bad showings, but on the whole justified their ratings of between +7 and +9—about a touchdown worse than the SEC but substantially better than the Pac-12’s performance.
The conference ratings on the score board feature the preseason ratings:
| Conf | Team (Away unless noted) | Chance | Final | Final All | Sqrt | Exceed | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACC +7 | Boston College (home) | 99% | 24 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.0 | Maine |
| ACC +7 | Clemson (home) | 100% | 49 | 10 | 6.2 | -0.1 | Wofford |
| ACC +7 | Duke | 87% | 37 | 7 | 5.5 | 1.4 | Tulane (home) |
| ACC +7 | Florida St (home) | 97% | 56 | 16 | 6.3 | 0.9 | Texas St |
| ACC +7 | Georgia Tech (home) | 100% | 69 | 6 | 7.9 | 1.2 | Alcorn St |
| ACC +7 | Louisville (neutral) | 32% | 24 | 31 | -2.6 | 0.0 | Auburn |
| ACC +7 | Miami FL (home) | 100% | 45 | 0 | 6.7 | 0.7 | Bethune-Cookman |
| ACC +7 | NC State (home) | 91% | 49 | 21 | 5.3 | 0.7 | Troy |
| ACC +7 | North Carolina | 28% | 13 | 17 | -2.0 | 0.6 | South Carolina (neutral) |
| ACC +7 | Pittsburgh (home) | 83% | 45 | 37 | 2.8 | -1.0 | Youngstown St |
| ACC +7 | Syracuse (home) | 100% | 47 | 0 | 6.9 | 1.0 | Rhode Island |
| ACC +7 | Virginia | 20% | 16 | 34 | -4.2 | -0.6 | UCLA (home) |
| ACC +7 | Virginia Tech (home-Monday) | 15% | 0.0 | Ohio St | |||
| ACC +7 | Wake Forest (home) | 97% | 41 | 3 | 6.2 | 0.9 | Elon |
| Expected 10.5 W, went 10-3, 1 | 10.5 | 4.7 | |||||
| Big 12 +9 | Baylor | 99% | 56 | 21 | 5.9 | 0.1 | SMU (home) |
| Big 12 +9 | Iowa St (home) | 55% | 31 | 7 | 4.9 | 3.2 | Northern Iowa |
| Big 12 +9 | Kansas (home) | 59% | 38 | 41 | -1.7 | -3.5 | S Dakota St |
| Big 12 +9 | Kansas St (home) | 100% | 34 | 0 | 5.8 | -0.3 | South Dakota |
| Big 12 +9 | Oklahoma (home) | 98% | 41 | 3 | 6.2 | 0.7 | Akron |
| Big 12 +9 | Oklahoma St | 81% | 24 | 13 | 3.3 | -0.4 | C Michigan (home) |
| Big 12 +9 | TCU | 80% | 23 | 17 | 2.4 | -1.2 | Minnesota (home) |
| Big 12 +9 | Texas | 39% | 3 | 38 | -5.9 | -3.9 | Notre Dame (home) |
| Big 12 +9 | Texas Tech (home) | 83% | 59 | 45 | 3.7 | 0.0 | Sam Houston St |
| Big 12 +9 | West Virginia (home) | 86% | 44 | 0 | 6.6 | 2.5 | Ga Southern |
| Expected 7.8 W, went 8-2 | 7.8 | -2.8 | |||||
| Big Ten +7 | Illinois (home) | 87% | 52 | 3 | 7.0 | 2.9 | Kent |
| Big Ten +7 | Indiana (home) | 76% | 48 | 47 | 1.0 | -2.2 | S Illinois |
| Big Ten +7 | Iowa (home) | 65% | 31 | 14 | 4.1 | 1.7 | Illinois St |
| Big Ten +7 | Maryland (home) | 94% | 50 | 21 | 5.4 | 0.5 | Richmond |
| Big Ten +7 | Michigan | 25% | 17 | 24 | -2.6 | 0.5 | Utah (home) |
| Big Ten +7 | Michigan St | 95% | 37 | 24 | 3.6 | -1.5 | W Michigan (home) |
| Big Ten +7 | Minnesota (home) | 20% | 17 | 23 | -2.4 | 1.2 | TCU |
| Big Ten +7 | Nebraska (home) | 72% | 28 | 33 | -2.2 | -4.9 | BYU |
| Big Ten +7 | Northwestern (home) | 17% | 16 | 6 | 3.2 | 6.9 | Stanford |
| Big Ten +7 | Ohio St- Monday | 85% | 0.0 | Virginia Tech (home) | |||
| Big Ten +7 | Penn St | 70% | 10 | 27 | -4.1 | -6.8 | Temple (home) |
| Big Ten +7 | Purdue-Sunday | 18% | 0.0 | Marshall (home) | |||
| Big Ten +7 | Rutgers (home) | 100% | 63 | 13 | 7.1 | 1.0 | Norfolk St |
| Big Ten +7 | Wisconsin (neutral) | 23% | 17 | 35 | -4.2 | -0.9 | Alabama |
| Expected 8.5 W, went 7-5, 2 left | 8.5 | -1.6 | |||||
| Pac 12 +11 | Arizona (home) | 95% | 42 | 32 | 3.2 | -1.8 | UT San Antonio |
| Pac 12 +11 | Arizona St (neutral) | 52% | 17 | 38 | -4.6 | -5.6 | Texas A&M |
| Pac 12 +11 | California (home) | 100% | 73 | 14 | 7.7 | 1.3 | Grambling |
| Pac 12 +11 | Colorado | 66% | 20 | 28 | -2.8 | -5.3 | Hawaii (home) |
| Pac 12 +11 | Oregon (home) | 99% | 61 | 42 | 4.4 | -1.4 | E Washington |
| Pac 12 +11 | Oregon St (home) | 98% | 26 | 7 | 4.4 | -1.2 | Weber St |
| Pac 12 +11 | Stanford | 83% | 6 | 16 | -3.2 | -6.9 | Northwestern (home) |
| Pac 12 +11 | UCLA (home) | 80% | 34 | 16 | 4.2 | 0.6 | Virginia |
| Pac 12 +11 | USC (home) | 94% | 0.0 | Arkansas St | |||
| Pac 12 +11 | Utah (home) | 75% | 24 | 17 | 2.6 | -0.5 | Michigan |
| Pac 12 +11 | Washington | 46% | 13 | 16 | -1.7 | 0.0 | Boise St (home) |
| Pac 12 +11 | Washington St (home) | 97% | 17 | 24 | -2.6 | -7.9 | Portland St |
| Expected 9.9 wins, went 6-5, 1 left | 9.9 | -28.7 | |||||
| SEC +15 | Alabama | 77% | 35 | 17 | 4.2 | 0.9 | Wisconsin (neutral) |
| SEC +15 | Arkansas (home) | 98% | 48 | 13 | 5.9 | 0.4 | UTEP |
| SEC +15 | Auburn | 68% | 31 | 24 | 2.6 | 0.0 | Louisville (neutral) |
| SEC +15 | Florida (home) | 99% | 61 | 13 | 6.9 | 1.0 | New Mexico St |
| SEC +15 | Georgia (home) | 99% | 51 | 14 | 6.1 | 0.2 | ULM |
| SEC +15 | Kentucky (home) | 76% | 40 | 33 | 2.6 | -0.5 | ULL |
| SEC +15 | LSU (home) | 0% | 0.0 | Cancelled | |||
| SEC +15 | Mississippi (home) | 100% | 76 | 3 | 8.5 | 2.2 | TN Martin |
| SEC +15 | Mississippi St | 97% | 0.0 | Southern Miss (home) | |||
| SEC +15 | Missouri (home) | 100% | 34 | 3 | 5.6 | -1.1 | SE Missouri St |
| SEC +15 | South Carolina (neutral) | 72% | 17 | 13 | 2.0 | -0.6 | North Carolina |
| SEC +15 | Tennessee | 92% | 59 | 30 | 5.4 | 0.7 | Bowling Green (neutral) |
| SEC +15 | Texas A&M | 48% | 38 | 17 | 4.6 | 5.6 | Arizona St (neutral) |
| SEC +15 | Vanderbilt (home) | 51% | 12 | 14 | -1.4 | -2.4 | W Kentucky |
| Expected 10.8 wins, went 11-1, 1 left | 11.8 | 6.4 |
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