Johnny Cueto, Not Clayton Kershaw, Baseball's Best Pitcher

Upon Value Add Baseball’s release two years ago, a disagreement arose over whether the best pitcher necessarily meant most valuable pitcher. The system now lists both. And Cincinnati Reds starter Johnny Cueto ranks as the best pitcher in baseball and deserves the All-Star nod over Clayton Kershaw.

Most readers will just want to glance at the leaders table below of the Top 50 pitchers, but if you want detail click here for the breakdown of all 253 rated pitchers and all 7114 of their starts, and a separate posts that walk through the methodology and the criticisms raised by some at the Baseball Think Factory.

How Valuable? The table below indicates that Cueto claimed a “victory” in 31 of his 49 starts in 2014 and the first half of this year. Calculations on each game’s opponent, ballpark and fielding and relief pitching behind him indicate that the Reds would have won 16.36 fewer games (14.64 of 49) if a replacement player took Cueto’s part.

How Good? After the release of Value Add 1, the New Republic and some at BTF argued against holding pitchers accountable for winning their games. Value Add 2 incorporates an alternative rating that instead indicates how easy the pitcher made it for the team to win (the flip of the other). This game-by-game indicates Cueto pitched well enough to help the Reds win an extra 10.69, lower than the first figure but still tops in the majors.

The ratings come out at an interesting time, as fans vote from among Kershaw, Cueto, and three other players now through Friday for the last NL spot on the All-Star team.

Kershaw is widely regarded as the best pitcher in baseball. But my review of each of their starts indicates Cueto should be the clear choice based on merit. Not only does Cueto have an overall edge comparing stats from 2014-15, he has been much better this season as well.

While critics do not like me holding pitchers accountable for wins, I noted in 2013 that the only item holding back slightly on Kershaw’s greatness was that he does not pull out many games when the Dodgers score one-to-three runs, and he has only gotten the Dodgers to a 12-20 mark in those games over three years. Cueto boasts a winning record in such games over the past two seasons.

Cueto also pitches in a much more hitter friendly park in Cincinnati, where the All-Star game will be played, and these stats through Sunday do not even include Cueto’s unbelievable performance Tuesday night when he struck out 11 while allowing only two hits in a complete game shutout over Max Scherzer.

Attached are the top 50 pitchers based on all starts in the regular season or the playoffs in 2014 and the starts through this weekend. The ranking down the middle is based on how “valuable” the pitcher has been, and the ranking down the right column indicates how “good” the pitcher has been.

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