Johnny Cueto, Not Clayton Kershaw, Baseball’s Best Pitcher

Upon Value Add Baseball’s release two years ago, a disagreement arose over whether the best pitcher necessarily meant most valuable pitcher. The system now lists both. And Cincinnati Reds starter Johnny Cueto ranks as the best pitcher in baseball and deserves the All-Star nod over Clayton Kershaw.

Most readers will just want to glance at the leaders table below of the Top 50 pitchers, but if you want detail click here for the breakdown of all 253 rated pitchers and all 7114 of their starts, and a separate posts that walk through the methodology and the criticisms raised by some at the Baseball Think Factory.

How Valuable? The table below indicates that Cueto claimed a “victory” in 31 of his 49 starts in 2014 and the first half of this year. Calculations on each game’s opponent, ballpark and fielding and relief pitching behind him indicate that the Reds would have won 16.36 fewer games (14.64 of 49) if a replacement player took Cueto’s part.

How Good? After the release of Value Add 1, the New Republic and some at BTF argued against holding pitchers accountable for winning their games. Value Add 2 incorporates an alternative rating that instead indicates how easy the pitcher made it for the team to win (the flip of the other). This game-by-game indicates Cueto pitched well enough to help the Reds win an extra 10.69, lower than the first figure but still tops in the majors.

The ratings come out at an interesting time, as fans vote from among Kershaw, Cueto, and three other players now through Friday for the last NL spot on the All-Star team.

Kershaw is widely regarded as the best pitcher in baseball. But my review of each of their starts indicates Cueto should be the clear choice based on merit. Not only does Cueto have an overall edge comparing stats from 2014-15, he has been much better this season as well.

While critics do not like me holding pitchers accountable for wins, I noted in 2013 that the only item holding back slightly on Kershaw’s greatness was that he does not pull out many games when the Dodgers score one-to-three runs, and he has only gotten the Dodgers to a 12-20 mark in those games over three years. Cueto boasts a winning record in such games over the past two seasons.

Cueto also pitches in a much more hitter friendly park in Cincinnati, where the All-Star game will be played, and these stats through Sunday do not even include Cueto’s unbelievable performance Tuesday night when he struck out 11 while allowing only two hits in a complete game shutout over Max Scherzer.

Attached are the top 50 pitchers based on all starts in the regular season or the playoffs in 2014 and the starts through this weekend. The ranking down the middle is based on how “valuable” the pitcher has been, and the ranking down the right column indicates how “good” the pitcher has been.

Pitcher 2014, Playoffs & 2015	GS/V	How Valuable?	Rnk	Team (s)	How Good?	Rnk
Johnny Cueto	49 / 31	16.36	1	Cincinnati Reds	10.69	1
D. Price	52 / 34	14.84	2	DET 7.60, TB 7.23	9.92	4
Felix Hernandez	51 / 33	14.37	3	Seattle Mariners	9.19	6
Max Scherzer	50 / 34	14.21	4	DET 9.50, WAS 4.70	10.08	3
Zack Greinke	50 / 31	12.26	5	Los Angeles Dodgers	7.71	11
Lance Lynn	50 / 29	11.89	6	St. Louis Cardinals	6.12	17
Corey Kluber	51 / 26	10.68	7	Cleveland Indians	10.35	2
Chris Sale	41 / 23	10.25	8	Chicago White Sox	8.22	8
Jon Lester	49 / 29	10.24	9	BOS 6.24, CHC 2.43, OAK 1.56	7.58	12
Dallas Keuchel	46 / 29	10.00	10	Houston Astros	8.13	9
Clayton Kershaw	46 / 31	9.77	11	Los Angeles Dodgers	9.20	5
Chris Archer	50 / 27	9.50	12	Tampa Bay Rays	8.85	7
Jordan Zimmermann	49 / 30	9.42	13	Washington Nationals	5.13	33
Julio Teheran	50 / 28	9.36	14	Atlanta Braves	4.91	39
Phil Hughes	48 / 28	9.35	15	Minnesota Twins	5.75	23
Cole Hamels	47 / 23	9.27	16	Philadelphia Phillies	7.30	14
Gerrit Cole	39 / 28	8.95	17	Pittsburgh Pirates	3.74	70
James Shields	56 / 33	8.69	18	KC 7.33, SD 1.36	6.66	16
Shelby Miller	50 / 25	8.55	19	Atlanta Braves	4.71	42
Yovani Gallardo	49 / 21	8.22	20	MIL 4.45, TEX 3.77	5.96	20
Jake Arrieta	41 / 22	7.94	21	Chicago Cubs	6.02	19
Henderson Alvarez	34 / 19	7.79	22	Miami Marlins	2.45	114
Doug Fister	36 / 23	7.74	23	Washington Nationals	2.91	95
Madison Bumgarner	56 / 33	7.66	24	San Francisco Giants	7.13	15
John Lackey	49 / 28	7.25	25	BOS 2.78, STL 4.48	4.49	48
Jeremy Guthrie	51 / 30	7.14	26	Kansas City Royals	3.28	82
Sonny Gray	49 / 27	7.04	27	Oakland Athletics	7.48	13
Tyson Ross	48 / 23	7.01	28	San Diego Padres	5.46	26
Wily Peralta	41 / 21	6.97	29	Milwaukee Brewers	4.09	61
Masahiro Tanaka	30 / 21	6.78	30	New York Yankees	5.92	21
Jonathon Niese	45 / 18	6.77	31	New York Mets	2.46	113
Aaron Harang	50 / 20	6.63	32	ATL 4.16, PHI 2.46	3.78	68
A.J. Burnett	50 / 20	6.60	33	PHI 2.54, PIT 4.05	4.28	56
Adam Wainwright	39 / 25	6.59	34	St. Louis Cardinals	5.54	24
Edinson Volquez	48 / 26	6.45	35	KC 1.97, PIT 4.47	4.34	54
Alfredo Simon	47 / 27	6.36	36	CIN 4.78, DET 1.57	4.46	49
Mark Buehrle	48 / 30	6.26	37	Toronto Blue Jays	4.53	47
Andrew Cashner	36 / 16	6.19	38	San Diego Padres	2.96	91
Michael Pineda	29 / 16	6.18	39	New York Yankees	5.14	32
Jacob deGrom	38 / 20	6.12	40	New York Mets	5.29	29
Charlie Morton	33 / 17	5.86	41	Pittsburgh Pirates	2.08	128
Alex Wood	40 / 17	5.85	42	Atlanta Braves	4.93	38
Collin McHugh	42 / 23	5.74	43	Houston Astros	6.09	18
Jesse Chavez	35 / 18	5.72	44	Oakland Athletics	3.70	73
Jose Quintana	48 / 19	5.68	45	Chicago White Sox	5.16	31
Dan Haren	48 / 24	5.67	46	LAD 2.33, MIA 3.34	3.39	80
Carlos Carrasco	30 / 16	5.56	47	Cleveland Indians	5.08	35
Bartolo Colon	47 / 26	5.47	48	New York Mets	2.45	115
Chris Young	40 / 23	5.45	49	Kansas City Royals	4.97	37
Kyle Hendricks	29 / 18	5.45	50	Chicago Cubs	2.75	101
Jorge De La Rosa	45 / 23	4.65	67	Colorado Rockies	7.81	10
Jeff Samardzija	50 / 19	5.12	57	OAK 1.34, CHW 3.78	5.88	22
Scott Kazmir	48 / 27	3.63	83	Oakland Athletics	5.52	25
Jason Hammel	45 / 19	1.54	138	CHC 1.94, OAK -0.26	5.44	27
Anibal Sanchez	38 / 18	3.05	94	Detroit Tigers	5.39	28
Yordano Ventura	46 / 25	2.97	99	Kansas City Royals	5.24	30
Jake Odorizzi	43 / 18	2.01	121	Tampa Bay Rays	5.13	34
R.A. Dickey	51 / 23	4.09	74	Toronto Blue Jays	5.06	36
Hiroki Kuroda	32 / 15	3.01	96	New York Yankees	4.90	40
Kyle Gibson	47 / 22	5.37	51	Minnesota Twins	4.89	41
Rick Porcello	47 / 23	4.21	73	BOS -0.72, DET 4.93	4.62	43
Clay Buchholz	45 / 17	2.21	115	Boston Red Sox	4.62	44
Trevor Bauer	42 / 18	2.87	103	Cleveland Indians	4.62	45
Wei-Yin Chen	48 / 27	5.28	53	Baltimore Orioles	4.59	46
Jason Vargas	41 / 21	3.57	84	Kansas City Royals	4.42	50

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