On Memorial Day it is obvious the top Value Add basketball players at each Military Academy have a lot to balance.
Kendall Knorr of Navy tweeted this month, “With these 6 exams in the next three days, I might as well have been thrown in the ring against @FloydMayweather.” Dylan Cox (Army) and Trevor Lyons (Air Force) likely feel the same sometimes.
All 351 rosters for 2015-16 teams were updated this weekend, and edits can be made by clicking on the public google doc here. The three players above all rate as potential breakout players if they get minutes this year.
Army has a great quartet that could give the Black Knights their best chance ever to beat out Lehigh and American for the Patriot League title and their first NCAA bid. Only five of the original D1 programs have never made the NCAA tournament.
Cox does not shoot as much as his three excellent teammates, but 34% of the time they score it is on an assist from him. (He usually wears No. 3, but wore No. 1 in this photo).
While Kevin Ferguson, Kyle Wilson and Tanner Plomb are excellent players as well and all made the 2nd or 3rd all-Patriot League team, Value Add calculates Cox was the true motor. He assisted 34% of the time one of the others scored, and was one of fewer than 3% of all players to hit more than 60% of his two-point shots to help Army jump to updates of St. Francis of NY and USC and a 9-2 mark before fading late.
The Midshipman have struggled since the glory days of David Robinson, but they took great glee in ending Army’s hopes for a bid with a 56-52 win at Annapolis (the place Charles Barkley apparently thought the NCAA Final Four was being held) – completing the sweep.
However, Knorr will need to get a lot more minutes with All-Conference player Worth Smith graduating. Knorr will be a surprise top pick for many at Navy as he missed first semester and does not handle the ball that well, but Value Add shows he could be the top break out player as his 111 offensive rating at www.kenpom.com would rank among the national leaders if he played more minutes. He is one of those players that goes unnoticed because he has done everything well over his career – low turnovers, good steals without fouling, 82% career free throws.
In the upset win at Army he hit 11 of 13 free throws, all three two-pointers, grabbed five rebounds and had two assists and a steal.
Air Force could have one of the top Value Add duos around if Lyons (top 8% of all players) builds on his hot finish the last six games in which he averaged three assists and three steals a game while hitting five of 10 three-pointers. Zach Kocur (top 16%) hit 4 of 9 three-pointers in a 20-point outing to stun New Mexico in the opening round of the very tough Mountain West Conference Tournament.
The Falcons have produced by far the best players of any of the Military Academies in the all-time Value Add database, but Value Add projects them behind strong programs from San Diego State, Utah State, UNLV, Fresno State, Boise State, Colorado State and New Mexico.
The following are all of the 2015-16 players in the database for the three Military Academies, and corrections can be made by clicking on the database and typing in notes by the player or missing players.
| Rnk | Projected 2015-16 players | Team | Ht | Yr | Value Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 304 | Lyons, Trevor 20 | Air Force | 6’3 | 2 So | 4.48 |
| 542 | Cox, Dylan 11 | Army | 6’4 | 4 Sr | 3.29 |
| 618 | Kocur, Zach 5 | Air Force | 6’3 | 3 Jr | 3.03 |
| 881 | Ferguson, Kevin 31 | Army | 6’10 | 4 Sr | 2.41 |
| 1009 | Omlid, Tanner 55 | Army | 6’3 | 3 Jr | 2.17 |
| 1030 | Plomb, Tanner 32 | Army | 6’7 | 4 Sr | 2.14 |
| 1612 | Knorr, Kendall 3 | Navy | 6’3 | 4 Sr | 1.31 |
| 1750 | Wilson, Kyle 21 | Army | 6’4 | 4 Sr | 1.20 |
| 2242 | Siples, C.J. 2 | Air Force | 6’3 | 2 So | 0.91 |
| 2301 | Graham, Hayden 35 | Air Force | 6’5 | 3 Jr | 0.85 |
| 2321 | Edwards, Kennedy 10 | Army | 6’6 | 3 Jr | 0.83 |
| 2333 | Brown, Richard 1 | Army | 6’6 | 2 So | 0.81 |
| 2365 | James, Dezmond 24 | Air Force | 6’4 | 2 So | 0.77 |
| 2380 | Kelly, Will 0 | Navy | 6’9 | 4 Sr | 0.74 |
| 2474 | Morrison, Billy 25 | Army | 6’6 | 2 So | 0.61 |
| 2502 | Coggins, Tre’ | Air Force | 6’2 | 3 Jr | 0.57 |
| 2524 | Vermeer, Grant 22 | Navy | 6’2 | 3 Jr | 0.54 |
| 2556 | Toomey, Larry 33 | Army | 6’6 | 4 Sr | 0.50 |
| 2624 | Hemphill, James 32 | Navy | 6’6 | 3 Jr | 0.42 |
| 2675 | Anderson, Shawn 20 | Navy | 6’4 | 2 So | 0.32 |
| 2707 | Parker, Darrius | Air Force | 6’7 | 2 So | 0.26 |
| 2713 | Noe, Daniel 35 | Navy | 6’5 | 2 So | 0.26 |
| 2744 | Moer, Zach 41 | Air Force | 6’11 | 4 Sr | 0.23 |
| 2810 | Hoffman, Mac 20 | Army | 6’8 | 3 Jr | 0.17 |
| 2906 | Alade, Edward 33 | Navy | 6’9 | 3 Jr | 0.10 |
| 2914 | Broekhuis, Kyle 25 | Air Force | 6’7 | 3 Jr | 0.09 |
| 2949 | Lacey, Tom 31 | Navy | 6’7 | 2 So | 0.07 |
| NR | Brown, Michael 25 | Navy | 6’4 | 3 Jr | 0.00 |
| NR | Dodge, Nathan 35 | Army | 6’2 | 2 So | 0.00 |
| NR | Dulin, Bryce 24 | Navy | 6’4 | 2 So | 0.00 |
| NR | Dunbar, Tilman 10 | Navy | 5’10 | 4 Sr | 0.00 |
| NR | Fong, Zach 12 | Navy | 5’11 | 3 Jr | 0.00 |
| NR | Fox, Nourse 1 | Navy | 6’0 | 2 So | 0.00 |
| NR | Hogan, Jace 44 | Navy | 6’6 | 2 So | 0.00 |
| NR | Jordan, Kieffer 41 | Army | 6’10 | 3 Jr | 0.00 |
| NR | Mammel, Scott 3 | Army | 5’11 | 3 Jr | 0.00 |
| NR | Manning, Ryan 32 | Air Force | 6’6 | 2 So | 0.00 |
| NR | Pollack, Mark 44 | Army | 6’6 | 2 So | 0.00 |
| NR | Washington, Milton 5 | Army | 6’0 | 4 Sr | 0.00 |
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