Arizona’s guards are more experienced, and they will likely produce twice as many NBA prospects as Wisconsin. But we pick Wisconsin to come out of a virtual toss-up due to putting an even better on the court with Sam Dekker back at full strength.

Every player in the bracket appears below with key info such as injuries.

The other virtually dead even match-ups will be Oregon vs. Oklahoma State and Xavier against the winner of the BYU-Mississippi game.

The table rates each team in the bracket on seven criteria (explained below the table), with a second table showing each player in the bracket, how valuable each player is, who is injured, and the chance that each player makes the NBA. Most important is how good the team is (see ESPN’s BPI here) subtracted by the Value Add of any injured players.

In both tables, teams appear in the same order in which they appear on the bracket.

Seed West Bracket BPI Health Hot NBA Exp guard F4 Coach Top3 Total
1 Wisconsin 92 2 1 2 1 1 99
16 Coastal Carolina 57 1 58
8 Oregon 73 1 1 75
9 Oklahoma St. 73 -1 3 75
5 Arkansas 80 1 1 1 83
12 Wofford 64 (1) 63
4 North Carolina 84 -1 1 3 2 1 90
13 Harvard 66 -1 1 66
6 Xavier 77 -1 1 1 78
11 BYU 77 -4 1 1 2 1 78
11 Mississippi 75 3 78
3 Baylor 81 -1 3 1 84
14 Georgia St. 66 1 3 3 73
7 VCU 78 -4 1 1 1 2 (1) 78
10 Ohio St. 82 -2 1 2 1 84
2 Arizona 91 4 4 99
15 Texas Southern 46 -1 3 48

The most important factor is simply how good a team is based on ESPN’s BPI. Health measures injuries. Hot points out if the team improved in the closing week. NBA notes how many NBA players the team will likely produce. Exp guard shows good seniors or juniors in the backcourt. F4 indicates a coach that has made surprising Final Four Runs. Top3 favors teams who rely more on three players who can dominate a game.

The BPI rating is repeated below, followed by how many points each player is worth based on www.valueaddbasketball.com. If a team had a 90 BPI, but a player with a 5.0 Value Add was out injured, then the actual BPI would really be an 85. However, if a team achieved that BPI despite a key player being injured and now he is back at full strength, we note that as well.

Frank Kaminsky of Wisconsin is the top player in the bracket with a Value Add of 10.97 (worth almost 11 additional points a game). He is followed by Ohio State’s D’Angelo Russell, Arkansas’ Bobby Portis, Arizona’s TJ McConnell and finally Georgia State’s RJ Hunter.

Seed West Players Rating Status NBA Pos Yr Team
1 Wisconsin 91.80 Wisconsin
1 Kaminsky, Frank 44 10.97 84% C Sr Wisconsin
1 Hayes, Nigel 10 7.19 17% PF So Wisconsin
1 Dekker, Sam 15 6.84 BACK FULL 77% SF Jr Wisconsin
1 Gasser, Josh 21 4.76 0% SG Sr Wisconsin
1 Koenig, Bronson 24 3.41 0% PG So Wisconsin
1 Jackson, Traevon 12 2.38 Quest 0% PG Sr Wisconsin
1 Showalter, Zak 3 1.89 0% SG So Wisconsin
1 Dukan, Duje 13 1.38 0% SF Sr Wisconsin
1 Moesch, Aaron 5 0.82 0% PG Fr Wisconsin
1 Dearring, Riley 35 0.69 0% SG Fr Wisconsin
1 Brown, Vitto 30 0.15 0% C So Wisconsin
1 Smith, Jordan 2 0.00 0% SG Jr Wisconsin
16 Coastal Carolina 57.40 Coastal Carolina
16 Cameron, Josh 3 2.35 0% SG Sr Coastal Carolina
16 Diagne, Badou 23 2.24 0% PF Jr Coastal Carolina
16 Wiggins, Shivaughn 10 2.19 0% PG So Coastal Carolina
16 Wilson, Elijah 22 1.04 0% SF So Coastal Carolina
16 Freeman, Marcus 35 0.89 0% C Jr Coastal Carolina
16 Ray-St Cyr, Colton 30 0.88 0% SF So Coastal Carolina
16 Gillis, Warren 0 0.81 0% SG Sr Coastal Carolina
16 Curtis, Tristian 21 0.54 0% C Jr Coastal Carolina
16 Enanga, Michel 12 0.39 0% PF Jr Coastal Carolina
16 Ljeskovic, Uros 13 0.00 0% C Jr Coastal Carolina
8 Oregon 72.90 Oregon
8 Young, Joseph 3 6.50 4% PG Sr Oregon
8 Bell, Jordan 1 3.70 0% C Fr Oregon
8 Cook, Elgin 23 3.58 0% PF Jr Oregon
8 Benjamin, Dwayne 0 3.35 0% C Jr Oregon
8 Brooks, Dillon 24 2.52 0% SF Fr Oregon
8 Benson, Casey 2 1.95 0% SG Fr Oregon
8 Abdul-Bassit, Jalil 15 1.74 0% PF Sr Oregon
8 Rorie, Ahmaad 14 1.23 0% SG Fr Oregon
8 Sorkin, Roman 0 0.38 0% SF Oregon
8 Chandler, Michael 25 0.15 0% UK Jr Oregon
9 Oklahoma St. 72.90 Oklahoma St.
9 Forte, Phil 13 6.11 3% SG Jr Oklahoma St.
9 Hickey, Anthony 12 6.04 3% PG Sr Oklahoma St.
9 Nash, Le’Bryan 2 4.36 0% SF Sr Oklahoma St.
9 Cobbins, Michael 20 3.48 0% C Sr Oklahoma St.
9 Newberry, Jeff 22 2.95 0% SF Jr Oklahoma St.
9 Griffin, Tyree 1 1.25 0% PG Fr Oklahoma St.
9 Shine, Tavarius 5 0.78 0% PF Fr Oklahoma St.
9 Solomon, Mitchell 41 0.77 0% C Fr Oklahoma St.
9 Carroll, Jeffrey 30 0.63 0% PF Fr Oklahoma St.
9 Allen, Anthony 32 0.46 0% C Jr Oklahoma St.
9 Sager, Christien 15 0.44 0% SF Sr Oklahoma St.
9 Hammonds, Leyton 23 0.02 0% PF So Oklahoma St.
5 Arkansas 79.90 Arkansas
5 Portis, Bobby 10 7.71 89% C So Arkansas
5 Qualls, Michael 24 5.23 1% SF Jr Arkansas
5 Madden, Rashad 0 4.71 0% PG Sr Arkansas
5 Harris, Alandise 2 3.16 0% PF Sr Arkansas
5 Beard, Anton 31 2.44 0% SG Fr Arkansas
5 Watkins, Manuale 21 2.32 0% SF So Arkansas
5 Bell, Anthlon 5 2.30 0% SG Jr Arkansas
5 Kingsley, Moses 33 1.19 0% C Fr Arkansas
5 Babb, Nick 14 1.14 0% PG Fr Arkansas
5 Williams, Jacorey 22 1.14 0% PF Jr Arkansas
5 Durham, Jabril 4 0.90 0% PG Jr Arkansas
5 Thompson, Trey 1 0.03 0% PF Fr Arkansas
5 Miles, Keaton 55 0.00 0% PF Jr Arkansas
12 Wofford 64.00 Wofford
12 Cochran, Karl 2 5.29 1% SG Sr Wofford
12 Garcia, Eric 5 2.36 0% PG So Wofford
12 Collins, Spencer 14 1.85 0% SF Jr Wofford
12 Skinner, Lee 34 1.82 0% C Jr Wofford
12 Neumann, C.J. 31 1.52 0% PF Jr Wofford
12 Swinton, John 3 1.22 0% PG Sr Wofford
12 Allen, Jaylen 20 0.94 0% SF Fr Wofford
12 Brooks, Derrick 1 0.84 0% SG Fr Wofford
12 Jackson, Cameron 33 0.62 0% C Fr Wofford
12 Gordon, Justin 24 0.59 0% PF Jr Wofford
4 North Carolina 83.70 North Carolina
4 Paige, Marcus 5 7.15 20% PG Jr North Carolina
4 Johnson, Brice 11 5.96 53% PF Jr North Carolina
4 Meeks, Kennedy 3 5.36 1% C So North Carolina
4 Jackson, Justin 44 4.20 26% SF Fr North Carolina
4 Tokoto, J.P. 13 3.87 0% SG Jr North Carolina
4 Britt, Nate 0 2.38 0% SG So North Carolina
4 Berry, Joel 2 1.68 0% PG Fr North Carolina
4 Pinson, Theo 1 1.58 Quest 0% SF Fr North Carolina
4 Hicks, Isaiah 22 1.44 49% C So North Carolina
4 James, Joel 42 0.34 0% PF Jr North Carolina
4 Simmons, Jackson 21 0.26 0% PF Sr North Carolina
4 Hubert, Desmond 14 0.00 Season 0% C Sr North Carolina
13 Harvard 65.70 Harvard
13 Saunders, Wesley 23 6.12 3% SF Sr Harvard
13 Moundou-Missi, Steve 14 2.92 0% C Sr Harvard
13 Miller, Corbin 15 2.02 0% SG So Harvard
13 Travis, Jonah 24 1.93 0% C Sr Harvard
13 Chambers, Siyani 1 1.63 0% PG Jr Harvard
13 Okolie, Agunwa 35 1.19 0% SF Jr Harvard
13 Chatfield, Andre 13 0.74 0% SF Fr Harvard
13 Smith, Kenyatta 25 0.72 0% PF Sr Harvard
13 Edosomwan, Zena 4 0.41 0% C So Harvard
13 Cummins, Evan 33 0.40 0% C Jr Harvard
13 Brown, Matt 3 0.00 0% UK Sr Harvard
13 Egi, Chris 11 0.00 0% PF Fr Harvard
13 Fraschilla, Matt 12 0.00 0% SG So Harvard
6 Xavier 77.40 Xavier
6 Stainbrook, Matt 40 6.20 3% PF Sr Xavier
6 Reynolds, Jalen 1 4.37 0% C So Xavier
6 Bluiett, Trevon 5 4.06 0% SF Fr Xavier
6 Davis, Myles 15 3.92 0% SG So Xavier
6 Davis, Dee 11 2.91 0% PG Sr Xavier
6 Abell, Remy 10 2.88 0% SG Jr Xavier
6 Macura, J.P. 55 1.74 Quest 0% SF Fr Xavier
6 Farr, James 2 1.46 0% C Jr Xavier
6 Randolph, Brandon 3 1.14 0% PG So Xavier
6 Austin, Larry 0 0.74 0% SG Fr Xavier
6 Sumner, Edmond 4 0.70 0% SG Fr Xavier
6 O’Mara, Sean 54 0.00 0% C Fr Xavier
11 BYU 77.20 BYU
11 Collinsworth, Kyle 5 7.10 23% PG Jr BYU
11 Haws, Tyler 3 6.20 3% SF Sr BYU
11 Winder, Anson 20 3.69 Quest 0% SF Sr BYU
11 Halford, Skyler 23 3.41 Quest 0% PG Sr BYU
11 Fischer, Chase 1 2.25 0% SG Jr BYU
11 Bartley, Frank 24 1.44 0% PG So BYU
11 Sharp, Josh 12 0.60 0% PF Sr BYU
11 Toolson, Jake 15 0.57 0% SF Fr BYU
11 Kaufusi, Corbin 44 0.53 0% C Fr BYU
11 Neilson, Isaac 35 0.46 0% C Fr BYU
11 Andrus, Ryan 10 0.45 0% UK Fr BYU
11 Austin, Nate 33 0.30 Season 0% C Sr BYU
11 Nixon, Dalton 30 0.20 0% PF Fr BYU
11 Worthington, Luke 41 0.02 0% PF So BYU
11 Mississippi 75.30 Mississippi
11 Moody, Stefan 42 6.55 4% SG Jr Mississippi
11 Saiz, Sebastian 11 3.31 0% C So Mississippi
11 White, LaDarius 10 3.16 0% SG Sr Mississippi
11 Newby, Martavious 1 2.73 0% SF Jr Mississippi
11 Coleby, Dwight 23 2.28 0% C So Mississippi
11 Summers, Jarvis 32 2.17 0% PG Sr Mississippi
11 Rhett, M.J. 4 1.81 0% PF Sr Mississippi
11 Smith, Terence 3 1.60 0% PG Sr Mississippi
11 Jones, Aaron 34 1.25 0% PF Jr Mississippi
11 Lawrence, Roderick 0 0.48 0% SF Jr Mississippi
11 Hymon, Marcanvis 21 0.44 0% SF Fr Mississippi
11 Perez, Anthony 13 0.21 0% PF Jr Mississippi
3 Baylor 81.10 Baylor
3 Gathers, Rico 2 7.13 5% C Jr Baylor
3 O’Neale, Royce 0 7.11 5% SF Sr Baylor
3 Prince, Taurean 21 6.19 3% PF Jr Baylor
3 Chery, Kenny 1 4.23 0% SG Sr Baylor
3 Medford, Lester 11 3.65 0% PG Jr Baylor
3 Motley, Johnathan 35 1.67 0% PF Fr Baylor
3 Freeman, Allerik 25 1.40 0% SG Fr Baylor
3 Mills, Austin 33 1.06 0% PG Jr Baylor
3 Wainright, Ish 24 0.89 0% SF So Baylor
3 Deng, Deng 45 0.27 0% C Jr Baylor
3 Maston, T.J. 31 0.19 0% PF Fr Baylor
14 Georgia St. 65.90 Georgia St.
14 Hunter, R.J. 22 7.35 69% SF Jr Georgia St.
14 Harrow, Ryan 55 4.38 0% PG Sr Georgia St.
14 Crider, Markus 33 4.00 0% PF Jr Georgia St.
14 Ware, Kevin 0 2.55 PLUS 0% SG Jr Georgia St.
14 Green, Ryann 2 1.93 0% SG Sr Georgia St.
14 Washington, Curtis 42 1.82 0% C Sr Georgia St.
14 Dennis, Isaiah 4 1.06 0% SF So Georgia St.
14 Shipes, T.J. 31 0.88 0% C Jr Georgia St.
14 Session, Jordan 23 0.50 0% PF Fr Georgia St.
14 Brown, Jalen 15 0.28 0% PF Jr Georgia St.
7 VCU 78.40 VCU
7 Graham, Treveon 21 5.21 30% PF Sr VCU
7 Weber, Briante 2 4.84 Season 0% PG Sr VCU
7 Alie-Cox, Mo 12 4.06 0% PF So VCU
7 Johnson, Melvin 32 3.92 0% SG Jr VCU
7 Brooks, Doug 5 2.44 0% SG So VCU
7 Lewis, JeQuan 1 2.19 0% PG So VCU
7 Burgess, Jordan 20 1.90 0% SF So VCU
7 Williams, Jonathan 10 1.29 0% PG Fr VCU
7 Tillman, Justin 4 1.29 0% C Fr VCU
7 Burston, Torey 14 1.02 0% PG So VCU
7 Gilmore, Michael 11 0.96 0% SF Fr VCU
7 Larrier, Terry 22 0.58 0% PF Fr VCU
7 Guest, Jarred 23 0.23 0% C Sr VCU
10 Ohio St. 82.20 Ohio St.
10 Russell, D’Angelo 0 8.51 99% SG Fr Ohio St.
10 Scott, Shannon 3 4.61 0% PG Sr Ohio St.
10 Thompson, Sam 12 4.17 0% SF Sr Ohio St.
10 Tate, Jae’Sean 1 3.43 0% PF Fr Ohio St.
10 Williams, Amir 23 3.26 0% C Sr Ohio St.
10 Loving, Marc 2 2.96 0% PF So Ohio St.
10 Williams, Kam 15 2.72 0% SG Fr Ohio St.
10 Bates-Diop, Keita 33 2.22 0% SF Fr Ohio St.
10 McDonald, Trey 55 0.78 0% C Sr Ohio St.
10 Lee, Anthony 31 0.19 Quest 0% C Sr Ohio St.
2 Arizona 91.00 Arizona
2 McConnell, T.J. 4 7.43 5% PG Sr Arizona
2 Hollis-Jefferson, Rondae 23 6.20 60% SF So Arizona
2 Johnson, Stanley 5 6.10 97% SF Fr Arizona
2 Ashley, Brandon 21 4.21 40% PF Jr Arizona
2 York, Gabe 1 3.71 0% SG Jr Arizona
2 Tarczewski, Kaleb 35 2.60 25% C Jr Arizona
2 Jackson-Cartwright, Parker 0 2.08 0% PG Fr Arizona
2 Pitts, Elliott 24 1.76 0% SG So Arizona
2 Ristic, Dusan 14 0.99 0% C Fr Arizona
2 Victor, Craig 3 0.36 0% PF Fr Arizona
2 Korcheck, Matt 31 0.31 0% C Sr Arizona
2 Hazzard, Jacob 50 0.00 0% SF Jr Arizona
15 Texas Southern 45.50 0% SF Jr Texas Southern
15 Riley, Malcolm 11 4.27 0% PF Jr Texas Southern
15 Biggs, Deverell 1 2.00 0% PG Sr Texas Southern
15 Blanks, David 15 1.58 0% SF Jr Texas Southern
15 Thomas, Chris 2 1.39 0% SF Jr Texas Southern
15 Gibbs, Madarious 3 0.96 0% PG Sr Texas Southern
15 Mack, Giovanni 20 0.92 0% PG Fr Texas Southern
15 Collier, Tonnie 12 0.73 0% C Jr Texas Southern
15 Johnson, Nevin 24 0.68 0% SG Jr Texas Southern
15 Shepherd, Nick 33 0.51 0% C Sr Texas Southern
15 Carter, Jason 23 0.42 0% PF Sr Texas Southern
15 Bynum, Tyree 5 0.00 0% PG So Texas Southern
15 Friar, Joshua 25 0.00 0% UK Fr Texas Southern
15 McCoggle, Christian 34 0.00 0% C So Texas Southern