Gonzaga has their best shot to make the Final Four, and they are virtually even with Duke as the top two teams in the region.
Two possible surprises are Utah if they can get through a tough opening round game with Stephen F. Austin to give Delon Wright a chance to pull some upsets, and SMU, great since Markus Kennedy became eligible.
The table rates each team in the bracket on seven criteria (explained below the table), with a second table showing each player in the bracket, how valuable each player is, which are injured, and the chance that each player makes the NBA. Most important is how good the team is (see ESPN’s BPI here) subtracted by the Value Add of any injured players.
In both tables, teams appear in the same order in which they appear on the bracket.
| Seed | South Bracket | BPI | Health | Hot | NBA | Exp guard | F4 Coach | Top3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke | 88 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 93 | |||
| 16 | North Florida | 56 | 1 | 57 | |||||
| 16 | Robert Morris | 47 | 1 | 48 | |||||
| 8 | San Diego St. | 73 | 73 | ||||||
| 9 | St. John’s | 72 | -4 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 70 | |
| 5 | Utah | 83 | -1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 89 | ||
| 12 | Stephen F. Austin | 72 | 1 | 1 | 74 | ||||
| 4 | Georgetown | 80 | 1 | 81 | |||||
| 13 | Eastern Washington | 56 | 3 | 59 | |||||
| 6 | SMU | 79 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 86 | ||
| 11 | UCLA | 73 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 77 | |||
| 3 | Iowa St. | 83 | 1 | (1) | 83 | ||||
| 14 | UAB | 56 | 1 | 57 | |||||
| 7 | Iowa | 75 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 79 | |||
| 10 | Davidson | 77 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 82 | |||
| 2 | Gonzaga | 90 | -1 | 1 | 4 | 94 | |||
| 15 | North Dakota St. | 51 | 1 | 2 | 54 |
The most important factor is simply how good a team is based on ESPN’s BPI. Health measures injuries. Hot indicates if the team improved in the closing week. NBA points to how many NBA players the team will likely produce. Exp guard notes good seniors or juniors in the backcourt. F4 indicates a coach that has made surprising Final Four Runs. Top3 favors teams who rely more on three players who can dominate a game.
The BPI rating is repeated below, followed by how many points each player is worth based on www.valueaddbasketball.com. If a team had a 90 BPI, but a player with a 5.0 Value Add was out injured, then the actual BPI would really be an 85. However, if a team achieved that BPI despite a key player being injured and now he is back at full strength, we note that as well.
The bracket features two other players in the Top 10 at Value Add with Aaron White of Iowa and D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera of Georgetown.
| Seed | West Players | Rating | Status | NBA | Pos | Yr | Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke | 87.80 | Duke | ||||
| 1 | Jones, Tyus 5 | 7.35 | 64% | PG | Fr | Duke | |
| 1 | Okafor, Jahlil 15 | 7.32 | 100% | PF | Fr | Duke | |
| 1 | Cook, Quinn 2 | 7.18 | 5% | SG | Sr | Duke | |
| 1 | Winslow, Justise 12 | 5.78 | 96% | SF | Fr | Duke | |
| 1 | Jefferson, Amile 21 | 3.47 | 0% | C | Jr | Duke | |
| 1 | Jones, Matt 13 | 2.69 | 0% | SF | So | Duke | |
| 1 | Allen, Grayson 3 | 2.03 | 0% | SG | Fr | Duke | |
| 1 | Sulaimon, Rasheed 14 | 2.00 | 0% | SG | Jr | Duke | |
| 1 | Plumlee, Marshall 40 | 1.64 | 0% | C | Jr | Duke | |
| 1 | Ojeleye, Semi 30 | 0.26 | 0% | PF | So | Duke | |
| 16 | North Florida | 56.40 | North Florida | ||||
| 16 | Nesbitt, Jalen 0 | 4.33 | 0% | SF | Sr | North Florida | |
| 16 | Davenport, Chris 35 | 3.29 | 0% | SF | So | North Florida | |
| 16 | Daniels, Demarcus 32 | 2.96 | 0% | PF | Jr | North Florida | |
| 16 | Moore, Dallas 14 | 2.78 | 0% | PG | So | North Florida | |
| 16 | Mackey, Trent 11 | 2.41 | 0% | SG | Jr | North Florida | |
| 16 | Beech, Beau 2 | 2.05 | 0% | C | Jr | North Florida | |
| 16 | Wilson, Devin 4 | 0.89 | 0% | PG | Sr | North Florida | |
| 16 | Banks, Romelo 33 | 0.00 | 0% | C | So | North Florida | |
| 16 | Bodager, Aaron 12 | 0.00 | 0% | SG | So | North Florida | |
| 16 | Robert Morris | 47.30 | 0% | SF | Jr | Robert Morris | |
| 16 | Pryor, Rodney 11 | 5.55 | 2% | SG | Jr | Robert Morris | |
| 16 | Reed, Marcquise 2 | 3.21 | 0% | SG | Fr | Robert Morris | |
| 16 | Minnie, Elijah 5 | 2.43 | 0% | C | Fr | Robert Morris | |
| 16 | Jones, Lucky 22 | 2.22 | 0% | PF | Sr | Robert Morris | |
| 16 | Stewart, Kavon 3 | 1.98 | 0% | PG | So | Robert Morris | |
| 16 | Appolon, David 4 | 0.97 | 0% | SF | Sr | Robert Morris | |
| 16 | Tate, Aaron 24 | 0.60 | 0% | SF | Jr | Robert Morris | |
| 16 | Frederick, Andre 33 | 0.28 | 0% | PF | Fr | Robert Morris | |
| 16 | Bennett, Stephan 45 | 0.00 | 0% | C | Jr | Robert Morris | |
| 16 | Gomis, Lionel 1 | 0.00 | 0% | C | Jr | Robert Morris | |
| 16 | Kinsey, Jafar 15 | 0.00 | 0% | SG | Fr | Robert Morris | |
| 8 | San Diego St. | 73.30 | San Diego St. | ||||
| 8 | O’Brien, J.J. 20 | 5.34 | 1% | SF | Sr | San Diego St. | |
| 8 | Quinn, Aqeel 10 | 4.79 | 0% | SG | Sr | San Diego St. | |
| 8 | Spencer, Skylar 0 | 3.37 | 0% | C | Jr | San Diego St. | |
| 8 | Kell, Trey 12 | 2.25 | 0% | PG | Fr | San Diego St. | |
| 8 | Polee, Dwayne 5 | 2.07 | 0% | SG | Sr | San Diego St. | |
| 8 | Shepard, Winston 13 | 2.04 | 0% | PF | Jr | San Diego St. | |
| 8 | Shrigley, Matt 40 | 1.50 | 0% | SF | So | San Diego St. | |
| 8 | Pope, Malik 21 | 1.38 | 0% | C | Fr | San Diego St. | |
| 8 | Williams, D’Erryl 11 | 1.18 | 0% | PG | So | San Diego St. | |
| 8 | Allen, Dakarai 4 | 1.08 | 0% | PF | So | San Diego St. | |
| 8 | Zabo, Kevin 2 | 1.07 | 0% | PG | Fr | San Diego St. | |
| 8 | Chol, Angelo 3 | 0.83 | 0% | C | Jr | San Diego St. | |
| 9 | St. John’s | 72.30 | St. John’s | ||||
| 9 | Pointer, Sir’Dominic 15 | 8.37 | 10% | PF | Sr | St. John’s | |
| 9 | Harrison, D’Angelo 11 | 5.83 | 2% | SF | Sr | St. John’s | |
| 9 | Jordan, Rysheed 23 | 3.75 | 28% | PG | So | St. John’s | |
| 9 | Obekpa, Chris 12 | 3.65 | Susp | 19% | C | Jr | St. John’s |
| 9 | Greene, Phil 1 | 3.54 | 0% | SG | Sr | St. John’s | |
| 9 | Branch, Jamal 0 | 2.27 | 0% | SG | Sr | St. John’s | |
| 9 | Alibegovic, Amar 14 | 0.61 | 0% | SF | Fr | St. John’s | |
| 9 | Balamou, Felix 24 | 0.54 | 0% | SF | Jr | St. John’s | |
| 9 | Jones, Christian 4 | 0.15 | 0% | PF | So | St. John’s | |
| 9 | De La Rosa, Joey 34 | 0.11 | 0% | UK | Jr | St. John’s | |
| 9 | Stewart, Myles 2 | 0.09 | 0% | PF | Fr | St. John’s | |
| 5 | Utah | 83.30 | Utah | ||||
| 5 | Wright, Delon 55 | 12.41 | 82% | PG | Sr | Utah | |
| 5 | Taylor, Brandon 11 | 6.21 | 3% | SG | Jr | Utah | |
| 5 | Poeltl, Jakob 42 | 3.97 | 54% | C | Fr | Utah | |
| 5 | Loveridge, Jordan 21 | 3.22 | 0% | SF | Jr | Utah | |
| 5 | Tucker, Dakarai 14 | 2.43 | 0% | SF | Jr | Utah | |
| 5 | Chapman, Brekkott 0 | 2.21 | 0% | PF | Fr | Utah | |
| 5 | Reyes, Chris 20 | 1.71 | 0% | PF | So | Utah | |
| 5 | Bachynski, Dallin 31 | 1.49 | 0% | C | Sr | Utah | |
| 5 | Kuzma, Kyle 35 | 1.23 | 0% | SF | Fr | Utah | |
| 5 | Wright, Isaiah 1 | 1.19 | 0% | PG | Fr | Utah | |
| 5 | Ogbe, Kenneth 25 | 0.97 | 0% | SF | So | Utah | |
| 5 | Eastman, Austin 15 | 0.79 | 0% | SG | Sr | Utah | |
| 5 | Olsen, Jeremy 41 | 0.00 | 0% | C | Jr | Utah | |
| 12 | Stephen F. Austin | 71.90 | Stephen F. Austin | ||||
| 12 | Stephen F. Austin | 71.90 | 5% | SF | Jr | Stephen F. Austin | |
| 12 | Walkup, Thomas 0 | 7.09 | 5% | SF | Jr | Stephen F. Austin | |
| 12 | Parker, Jacob 34 | 5.66 | 2% | PF | Sr | Stephen F. Austin | |
| 12 | Charles, Ty 4 | 4.10 | 0% | PF | Fr | Stephen F. Austin | |
| 12 | Johnson, Jared 3 | 2.43 | 0% | SG | Jr | Stephen F. Austin | |
| 12 | Clayton, Tanner 30 | 2.00 | 0% | C | Sr | Stephen F. Austin | |
| 12 | Geffrard, Clide 11 | 1.56 | 0% | SF | Jr | Stephen F. Austin | |
| 12 | Pinkney, Trey 10 | 1.45 | 0% | PG | Jr | Stephen F. Austin | |
| 12 | Floyd, Demetrious 1 | 1.41 | 0% | PG | Fr | Stephen F. Austin | |
| 12 | Brooks, Connor 31 | 1.07 | 0% | SG | Sr | Stephen F. Austin | |
| 12 | Dotson, Justin 5 | 0.76 | 0% | SF | So | Stephen F. Austin | |
| 12 | Cameron, Dallas 12 | 0.00 | 0% | SG | So | Stephen F. Austin | |
| 12 | Holden, Jaxon 25 | 0.00 | 0% | SG | Fr | Stephen F. Austin | |
| 12 | Johnston, Caleb 33 | 0.00 | 0% | SF | Fr | Stephen F. Austin | |
| 12 | King, Bobby 15 | 0.00 | 0% | C | Sr | Stephen F. Austin | |
| 4 | Georgetown | 79.90 | Georgetown | ||||
| 4 | Smith-Rivera, D’Vauntes 4 | 8.56 | 13% | PG | Jr | Georgetown | |
| 4 | Smith, Joshua 24 | 4.82 | 0% | C | Sr | Georgetown | |
| 4 | Trawick, Jabril 55 | 4.00 | 0% | SF | Sr | Georgetown | |
| 4 | Hopkins, Mikael 3 | 2.46 | 0% | C | Sr | Georgetown | |
| 4 | Copeland, Isaac 11 | 2.22 | 0% | PF | Fr | Georgetown | |
| 4 | Bowen, Aaron 23 | 2.05 | 0% | PF | Sr | Georgetown | |
| 4 | Campbell, Tre 1 | 2.05 | 0% | SG | Fr | Georgetown | |
| 4 | White, Paul 13 | 2.04 | 0% | SF | Fr | Georgetown | |
| 4 | Peak, L.J. 0 | 1.48 | 0% | SG | Fr | Georgetown | |
| 4 | Cameron, Reggie 5 | 0.00 | 0% | SF | So | Georgetown | |
| 4 | Hayes, Bradley 42 | 0.00 | 0% | C | Jr | Georgetown | |
| 13 | Eastern Washington | 55.80 | Eastern Washington | ||||
| 13 | Brandon, Drew 22 | 4.86 | 0% | PG | Sr | Eastern Washington | |
| 13 | Harvey, Tyler 1 | 4.50 | 0% | SG | Jr | Eastern Washington | |
| 13 | Jois, Venky 55 | 3.49 | 0% | C | Jr | Eastern Washington | |
| 13 | Bliznyuk, Bogdan 32 | 1.99 | 0% | PF | Fr | Eastern Washington | |
| 13 | Kelly, Parker 10 | 1.44 | 0% | SF | Sr | Eastern Washington | |
| 13 | Von Hofe, Felix 44 | 1.08 | 0% | SG | So | Eastern Washington | |
| 13 | Washington, Sir 4 | 0.35 | season | 0% | SF | Fr | Eastern Washington |
| 13 | Reid, Kyle 23 | 0.12 | 0% | PF | Jr | Eastern Washington | |
| 13 | Moon, Garrett 33 | 0.06 | 0% | PF | Sr | Eastern Washington | |
| 13 | Hill, Daniel 2 | 0.00 | 0% | PG | Jr | Eastern Washington | |
| 13 | Jorg, Frederik 21 | 0.00 | 0% | C | So | Eastern Washington | |
| 13 | Miljkovic, Ognjen 0 | 0.00 | 0% | PF | So | Eastern Washington | |
| 6 | SMU | 79.20 | SMU | ||||
| 6 | Moore, Nic 11 | 5.34 | 1% | PG | Jr | SMU | |
| 6 | Kennedy, Markus 5 | 3.98 | PLUS | 0% | PF | Jr | SMU |
| 6 | Moreira, Yanick 2 | 3.98 | 0% | C | Sr | SMU | |
| 6 | Brown, Sterling 3 | 3.96 | 0% | SF | So | SMU | |
| 6 | Moore, Ben 0 | 2.40 | 0% | PF | So | SMU | |
| 6 | Manuel, Ryan 1 | 2.35 | 0% | SG | Sr | SMU | |
| 6 | Cunningham, Cannen 15 | 2.19 | 0% | C | Sr | SMU | |
| 6 | Frazier, Keith 4 | 2.01 | season | 0% | SF | So | SMU |
| 6 | Emelogu, Ben 21 | 1.48 | 0% | SG | So | SMU | |
| 6 | Martin, Justin 20 | 1.06 | 0% | SG | Sr | SMU | |
| 11 | UCLA | 73.00 | UCLA | ||||
| 11 | Looney, Kevon 5 | 6.16 | 95% | PF | Fr | UCLA | |
| 11 | Powell, Norman 4 | 5.56 | 76% | SG | Sr | UCLA | |
| 11 | Alford, Bryce 20 | 4.47 | 0% | PG | So | UCLA | |
| 11 | Parker, Tony 23 | 2.55 | 0% | C | Jr | UCLA | |
| 11 | Hamilton, Isaac 10 | 1.53 | 0% | SF | So | UCLA | |
| 11 | Welsh, Thomas 40 | 1.28 | 0% | C | Fr | UCLA | |
| 11 | Goloman, Gyorgy 14 | 0.48 | 0% | PF | Fr | UCLA | |
| 11 | Bail, Wanaah 1 | 0.06 | season | 0% | PF | So | UCLA |
| 11 | Allen, Noah 22 | 0.00 | 0% | SF | So | UCLA | |
| 3 | Iowa St. | 83.30 | Iowa St. | ||||
| 3 | Morris, Monte 11 | 8.11 | 8% | PG | So | Iowa St. | |
| 3 | Dejean-Jones, Bryce 13 | 4.53 | 0% | PF | Sr | Iowa St. | |
| 3 | Niang, Georges 31 | 4.42 | 0% | SF | Jr | Iowa St. | |
| 3 | McKay, Jameel 1 | 4.26 | 0% | UK | Jr | Iowa St. | |
| 3 | Long, Naz 15 | 3.87 | 0% | SG | Jr | Iowa St. | |
| 3 | Hogue, Dustin 22 | 2.68 | 0% | C | Sr | Iowa St. | |
| 3 | Thomas, Matt 21 | 1.12 | 0% | SF | So | Iowa St. | |
| 3 | Nader, Abdel 2 | 0.99 | 0% | SF | Jr | Iowa St. | |
| 3 | Custer, Clayton 3 | 0.88 | 0% | PG | Fr | Iowa St. | |
| 3 | Dorsey-Walker, Sherron 4 | 0.70 | 0% | SG | So | Iowa St. | |
| 3 | Edozie, Daniel 42 | 0.47 | 0% | C | Sr | Iowa St. | |
| 3 | Jackson, Kourtlin 12 | 0.38 | 0% | SF | Jr | Iowa St. | |
| 3 | Tsalmpouris, Georgios 34 | 0.00 | 0% | C | Fr | Iowa St. | |
| 14 | UAB | 56.20 | UAB | ||||
| 14 | Norton, Nick 2 | 3.55 | 0% | PG | Fr | UAB | |
| 14 | Lee, William 34 | 3.04 | 0% | PF | Fr | UAB | |
| 14 | Cokley, Chris 3 | 2.26 | 0% | C | Fr | UAB | |
| 14 | Brown, Robert 4 | 2.11 | 0% | SF | Jr | UAB | |
| 14 | Madison, Tyler 22 | 1.48 | 0% | SF | So | UAB | |
| 14 | Watts, Denzell 1 | 1.36 | 0% | PG | So | UAB | |
| 14 | Baxter, Hakeem 0 | 1.25 | 0% | SG | Fr | UAB | |
| 14 | Mehinti, Tosin 21 | 1.02 | 0% | C | So | UAB | |
| 14 | Sullivan, Lewis 35 | 0.74 | 0% | SF | Fr | UAB | |
| 14 | Washington, C.J. 25 | 0.69 | 0% | PF | Sr | UAB | |
| 14 | Calhoun, Jarvis 5 | 0.00 | 0% | SG | Fr | UAB | |
| 7 | Iowa | 75.40 | Iowa | ||||
| 7 | White, Aaron 30 | 9.13 | 45% | PF | Sr | Iowa | |
| 7 | Uthoff, Jarrod 20 | 6.83 | 4% | SF | Jr | Iowa | |
| 7 | Olaseni, Gabriel 0 | 3.60 | 0% | C | Sr | Iowa | |
| 7 | Gesell, Mike 10 | 2.19 | 0% | PG | Jr | Iowa | |
| 7 | Clemmons, Anthony 5 | 1.76 | 0% | SG | Jr | Iowa | |
| 7 | Woodbury, Adam 34 | 1.43 | 0% | C | Jr | Iowa | |
| 7 | Jok, Peter 3 | 1.37 | 0% | SF | So | Iowa | |
| 7 | Oglesby, Josh 2 | 1.05 | 0% | SG | Sr | Iowa | |
| 7 | Dickerson, Trey 11 | 0.94 | 0% | PG | So | Iowa | |
| 7 | Ellingson, Brady 24 | 0.85 | 0% | SG | Fr | Iowa | |
| 7 | Uhl, Dom 25 | 0.42 | 0% | PF | Fr | Iowa | |
| 10 | Davidson | 76.70 | Davidson | ||||
| 10 | Kalinoski, Tyler 4 | 8.15 | 9% | SG | Sr | Davidson | |
| 10 | Gibbs, Jack 12 | 6.03 | 3% | PG | So | Davidson | |
| 10 | Barham, Jordan 5 | 4.94 | 0% | SG | Jr | Davidson | |
| 10 | Sullivan, Brian 3 | 3.88 | 0% | PG | Jr | Davidson | |
| 10 | Aldridge, Peyton 23 | 3.14 | 0% | PF | Fr | Davidson | |
| 10 | Watkins, Jordan 2 | 1.42 | 0% | PG | Fr | Davidson | |
| 10 | McAuliffe, Andrew 40 | 1.11 | 0% | PF | So | Davidson | |
| 10 | Ekwu, Nathan 1 | 0.85 | 0% | PF | Fr | Davidson | |
| 10 | Michelson, Oskar 15 | 0.50 | 0% | PF | Fr | Davidson | |
| 10 | Belford, Jake 25 | 0.38 | season | 0% | PF | Jr | Davidson |
| 10 | Mackay, Ali 22 | 0.00 | 0% | C | Sr | Davidson | |
| 2 | Gonzaga | 90.40 | Gonzaga | ||||
| 2 | Pangos, Kevin 4 | 7.88 | 7% | PG | Sr | Gonzaga | |
| 2 | Wiltjer, Kyle 33 | 7.69 | 5% | PF | Jr | Gonzaga | |
| 2 | Wesley, Byron 22 | 4.57 | 0% | SF | Sr | Gonzaga | |
| 2 | Sabonis, Domantas 11 | 4.37 | 71% | C | Fr | Gonzaga | |
| 2 | Karnowski, Przemek 24 | 3.86 | 0% | C | Jr | Gonzaga | |
| 2 | Bell, Gary 5 | 3.59 | 0% | SG | Sr | Gonzaga | |
| 2 | Dranginis, Kyle 3 | 2.75 | 0% | SF | Jr | Gonzaga | |
| 2 | Melson, Silas 0 | 1.38 | 0% | SG | Fr | Gonzaga | |
| 2 | Perkins, Josh 13 | 1.16 | indef | 0% | PG | Fr | Gonzaga |
| 2 | Griffin, Connor 14 | 0.79 | 0% | SG | So | Gonzaga | |
| 2 | Nunez, Angel 2 | 0.58 | 0% | PF | Sr | Gonzaga | |
| 2 | McClellan, Eric 21 | 0.32 | 0% | UK | Jr | Gonzaga | |
| 15 | North Dakota St. | 50.70 | North Dakota St. | ||||
| 15 | Alexander, Lawrence 12 | 3.30 | 0% | SG | Sr | North Dakota St. | |
| 15 | Brown, Kory 22 | 1.59 | 0% | PG | Jr | North Dakota St. | |
| 15 | Werner, Dexter 40 | 1.34 | 0% | C | So | North Dakota St. | |
| 15 | Dupree, Carlin 13 | 1.19 | 0% | PG | So | North Dakota St. | |
| 15 | Kading, Chris 34 | 0.75 | 0% | C | Jr | North Dakota St. | |
| 15 | Jacobson, A.J. 21 | 0.65 | 0% | PF | Fr | North Dakota St. | |
| 15 | Showalter, Jake 3 | 0.49 | 0% | SF | Fr | North Dakota St. | |
| 15 | Miller, Paul 2 | 0.42 | 0% | SF | Fr | North Dakota St. | |
| 15 | Ishola, Brian 0 | 0.05 | 0% | UK | Fr | North Dakota St. | |
| 15 | Wessenberg, Evan 32 | 0.00 | 0% | PF | Fr | North Dakota St. |
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