When the No. 1 seed in a bracket already beat the No. 2 seed (Kansas) 72-40 this season, one sees why the top seed plays as such a huge favorite. Two bigger threats to Kentucky than Kansas appear to be Wichita State and Notre Dame, teams who look evenly matched with each other.
Not only is Kentucky easily the best team with a 95 BPI, but the team will likely produce seven NBA players and John Calipari is the only coach besides Tom Izzo that has taken three teams to the Final Four that did not have enough talent to get there.
The table rates each team in the bracket on seven criteria (explained below the table), with a second table showing each player in the bracket, how valuable each player is, who is injured, and the chance that each player makes the NBA. Most important is how good the team is (see ESPN’s BPI here) subtracted by the Value Add of any injured players.
In both tables, teams appear in the same order in which they appear on the bracket.
| Seed | Midwest Bracket | BPI | Health | Hot | NBA | Exp guard | F4 Coach | Top3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kentucky | 95 | 7 | 3 | 105 | ||||
| 16 | Manhattan | 52 | 2 | 54 | |||||
| 16 | Hampton | 34 | -1 | 2 | 2 | 37 | |||
| 8 | Cincinnati | 73 | 73 | ||||||
| 9 | Purdue | 75 | 1 | 2 | (1) | 77 | |||
| 5 | West Virginia | 79 | -3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | (2) | 78 | |
| 12 | Buffalo | 71 | 1 | 72 | |||||
| 4 | Maryland | 78 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 82 | |||
| 13 | Valparaiso | 68 | -1 | 1 | 68 | ||||
| 6 | Butler | 79 | -1 | 2 | 80 | ||||
| 11 | Texas | 79 | 2 | 81 | |||||
| 3 | Notre Dame | 84 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 90 | ||
| 14 | Northeastern | 58 | 2 | 60 | |||||
| 7 | Wichita St. | 83 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 90 | ||
| 10 | Indiana | 73 | -1 | 2 | 1 | 75 | |||
| 2 | Kansas | 86 | -2 | -1 | 3 | 1 | (1) | 86 | |
| 15 | New Mexico St. | 63 | 2 | 65 |
The most important factor is simply how good a team is based on ESPN’s BPI. Health measures injuries. Hot indicates if the team improved in the closing week. NBA notes how many NBA players the team will likely product. Exp guard shows good seniors or juniors in the backcourt. F4 points out a coach that has made surprising Final Four Runs. Top3 favors teams who rely more on three players who can dominate a game.
The BPI rating is repeated below, followed by how many points each player is worth based on www.valueaddbasketball.com. If a team had a 90 BPI, but a player with a 5.0 Value Add was out injured, then the actual BPI would really be an 85. However, if a team achieved that BPI despite an injury to a key player who is now back at full strength, we note that as well.
Willie Cauley-Stein is back up to the No. 3 player at Value Add after shutting down KT Harrell of Auburn and others. Karl-Anthony Towns is just behind him at No. 6. However, Notre Dame’s Jerian Grant is virtually their equal at No. 6 in running the point for Notre Dame, and will be going up against both of them in the NBA next year.
If Wichita State can get by Kansas and take their shot at Kentucky, then they have two of the top 21 players in Fred VanVleet 12th) and Ron Baker 21st) to take their best shot.
| 1 | Kentucky | 95.30 | Kentucky | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cauley-Stein, Willie 15 | 10.36 | 90% | C | Jr | Kentucky | |
| 1 | Towns, Karl-Anthony 12 | 9.43 | 98% | PF | Fr | Kentucky | |
| 1 | Booker, Devin 1 | 7.63 | 73% | SG | Fr | Kentucky | |
| 1 | Harrison, Aaron 2 | 7.46 | 18% | SG | So | Kentucky | |
| 1 | Harrison, Andrew 5 | 7.42 | 31% | PG | So | Kentucky | |
| 1 | Ulis, Tyler 3 | 6.62 | 4% | PG | Fr | Kentucky | |
| 1 | Lyles, Trey 41 | 6.46 | 91% | SF | Fr | Kentucky | |
| 1 | Johnson, Dakari 44 | 5.54 | 48% | C | So | Kentucky | |
| 1 | Lee, Marcus 0 | 3.01 | 41% | PF | So | Kentucky | |
| 1 | Poythress, Alex 22 | 1.32 | season | 43% | SF | Jr | Kentucky |
| 1 | Hawkins, Dominique 25 | 1.20 | 0% | SG | So | Kentucky | |
| 1 | Willis, Derek 35 | 0.95 | 0% | SF | So | Kentucky | |
| 16 | Manhattan | 51.60 | Manhattan | ||||
| 16 | Hampton | 34.30 | Hampton | ||||
| 16 | Andujar, Emmy 13 | 4.45 | 0% | SF | Sr | Manhattan | |
| 16 | Richards, Shane 0 | 3.84 | 0% | SG | Jr | Manhattan | |
| 16 | Pankey, Ashton 1 | 3.43 | 0% | C | Jr | Manhattan | |
| 16 | Stores, RaShawn 12 | 2.84 | 0% | SG | Sr | Manhattan | |
| 16 | Powers, Deron 11 | 2.49 | 0% | PG | Jr | Hampton | |
| 16 | Wilson, Tyler 2 | 1.93 | 0% | PG | So | Manhattan | |
| 16 | Brown, Ke’Ron 21 | 1.86 | 0% | SG | Jr | Hampton | |
| 16 | Meikle, Dwight 23 | 1.66 | Quest | 0% | PF | Jr | Hampton |
| 16 | Darden, Brian 14 | 1.22 | 0% | SG | Jr | Hampton | |
| 16 | Johnson, Reginald 34 | 1.05 | 0% | SG | Jr | Hampton | |
| 16 | Williams, Rich 23 | 0.99 | 0% | SF | So | Manhattan | |
| 16 | Pressley, Jervon 30 | 0.95 | 0% | SF | Jr | Hampton | |
| 16 | Carroll, Keith 1 | 0.83 | 0% | PG | Fr | Hampton | |
| 16 | Lawrence, Jermaine 20 | 0.50 | 0% | PF | So | Manhattan | |
| 16 | Cooks, Lawrence 4 | 0.46 | 0% | SF | So | Hampton | |
| 16 | Crawford, Calvin 14 | 0.37 | 0% | PF | So | Manhattan | |
| 16 | Chievous, Quinton 3 | 0.28 | 0% | C | Sr | Hampton | |
| 16 | Waterman, Zane 4 | 0.24 | 0% | PF | Fr | Manhattan | |
| 16 | Key, Breon 2 | 0.23 | 0% | UK | Jr | Hampton | |
| 16 | Wilson-Fisher, Charle 31 | 0.01 | 0% | C | Fr | Hampton | |
| 16 | Adams, Dionte 32 | 0.00 | 0% | C | Jr | Hampton | |
| 16 | Okoroba, Emmanuel 0 | 0.00 | 0% | C | Hampton | ||
| 16 | Reed, Phillip 33 | 0.00 | 0% | C | So | Hampton | |
| 16 | Allen, Carlton 32 | 0.00 | 0% | C | So | Manhattan | |
| 16 | Glassman, Trevor 30 | 0.00 | 0% | SG | So | Manhattan | |
| 16 | Kates, Donovan 33 | 0.00 | 0% | PF | Sr | Manhattan | |
| 8 | Cincinnati | 73.00 | Cincinnati | ||||
| 8 | Clark, Gary 11 | 5.89 | 2% | PF | Fr | Cincinnati | |
| 8 | Caupain, Troy 10 | 5.48 | 1% | PG | So | Cincinnati | |
| 8 | Ellis, Octavius 2 | 5.46 | 1% | C | Jr | Cincinnati | |
| 8 | Cobb, Farad 22 | 4.15 | 0% | SG | Jr | Cincinnati | |
| 8 | Sanders, Jermaine 15 | 1.87 | 0% | SF | Sr | Cincinnati | |
| 8 | Johnson, Kevin 25 | 1.63 | 0% | SG | So | Cincinnati | |
| 8 | Thomas, Shaquille 3 | 1.39 | 0% | SF | Jr | Cincinnati | |
| 8 | Morman, Deshaun 1 | 1.10 | 0% | SG | Fr | Cincinnati | |
| 8 | DeBerry, Coreontae 22 | 0.88 | 0% | C | Jr | Cincinnati | |
| 8 | Moore, Quadri 0 | 0.42 | 0% | PF | Fr | Cincinnati | |
| 8 | Guyn, Ge’Lawn 14 | 0.00 | season | 0% | SG | Sr | Cincinnati |
| 9 | Purdue | 74.50 | Purdue | ||||
| 9 | Octeus, Jon 0 | 5.20 | 1% | PG | Sr | Purdue | |
| 9 | Hammons, A.J. 20 | 3.98 | 0% | C | Jr | Purdue | |
| 9 | Davis, Rapheal 35 | 3.84 | 0% | SG | Jr | Purdue | |
| 9 | Edwards, Vince 12 | 3.11 | 0% | PF | Fr | Purdue | |
| 9 | Stephens, Kendall 21 | 2.06 | 0% | SF | So | Purdue | |
| 9 | Mathias, Dakota 31 | 1.72 | 0% | SG | Fr | Purdue | |
| 9 | Scott, Bryson 1 | 1.63 | 0% | PG | So | Purdue | |
| 9 | Thompson, P.J. 3 | 1.30 | 0% | SG | Fr | Purdue | |
| 9 | Smotherman, Basil 5 | 1.18 | 0% | PF | So | Purdue | |
| 9 | Haas, Isaac 44 | 0.57 | 0% | C | Fr | Purdue | |
| 9 | Taylor, Jacquil 23 | 0.16 | 0% | PF | Fr | Purdue | |
| 5 | West Virginia | 79.40 | West Virginia | ||||
| 5 | Carter, Jevon 2 | 4.12 | 0% | SG | Fr | West Virginia | |
| 5 | Staten, Juwan 3 | 4.07 | Quest | 22% | PG | Sr | West Virginia |
| 5 | Holton, Jonathan 1 | 3.76 | 0% | PF | Jr | West Virginia | |
| 5 | Williams, Devin 5 | 3.39 | 0% | C | So | West Virginia | |
| 5 | Miles, Daxter 4 | 2.58 | 0% | SF | Fr | West Virginia | |
| 5 | Paige, Jaysean 0 | 2.51 | 0% | SG | Jr | West Virginia | |
| 5 | Browne, Gary 14 | 2.34 | Quest | 0% | SG | Sr | West Virginia |
| 5 | Phillip, Tarik 12 | 1.64 | 0% | SF | So | West Virginia | |
| 5 | Connor, Chase 10 | 1.28 | 0% | SG | So | West Virginia | |
| 5 | Adrian, Nathan 11 | 0.96 | 0% | PF | So | West Virginia | |
| 5 | Watkins, Brandon 20 | 0.34 | 0% | PF | So | West Virginia | |
| 5 | Williams, BillyDee 21 | 0.17 | 0% | UK | Jr | West Virginia | |
| 5 | Macon, Elijah 45 | 0.11 | 0% | C | Fr | West Virginia | |
| 12 | Buffalo | 71.30 | Buffalo | ||||
| 12 | Moss, Justin 23 | 5.17 | 1% | C | Jr | Buffalo | |
| 12 | Evans, Shannon 11 | 4.65 | 0% | PG | So | Buffalo | |
| 12 | Skeete, Jarryn 10 | 3.23 | 0% | SG | Jr | Buffalo | |
| 12 | Ford, Xavier 35 | 2.54 | 0% | PF | Sr | Buffalo | |
| 12 | Bearden, Lamonte 1 | 1.86 | 0% | SG | Fr | Buffalo | |
| 12 | Wigginton, Rodell 20 | 1.83 | 0% | SF | Jr | Buffalo | |
| 12 | Regan, Will 2 | 1.14 | 0% | PF | Sr | Buffalo | |
| 12 | Johnson, Raheem 31 | 0.62 | 0% | C | Jr | Buffalo | |
| 12 | Diane, Mory 5 | 0.00 | season | 0% | SF | Fr | Buffalo |
| 4 | Maryland | 78.20 | Maryland | ||||
| 4 | Trimble, Melo 2 | 7.37 | 59% | SG | Fr | Maryland | |
| 4 | Layman, Jake 10 | 5.30 | 58% | PF | Jr | Maryland | |
| 4 | Wells, Dez 44 | 4.35 | 0% | PG | Sr | Maryland | |
| 4 | Pack, Richaud 20 | 2.32 | 0% | SF | Sr | Maryland | |
| 4 | Dodd, Damonte 35 | 1.96 | 0% | C | So | Maryland | |
| 4 | Nickens, Jared 11 | 1.49 | 0% | PF | Fr | Maryland | |
| 4 | Smotrycz, Evan 1 | 1.16 | 0% | PF | Sr | Maryland | |
| 4 | Wiley, Dion 5 | 1.12 | 0% | SG | Fr | Maryland | |
| 4 | Graham, Jon 25 | 0.98 | 0% | PF | Sr | Maryland | |
| 4 | Ram, Varum 21 | 0.93 | 0% | PG | Sr | Maryland | |
| 4 | Cekovsky, Michal 15 | 0.27 | 0% | C | Fr | Maryland | |
| 13 | Valparaiso | 67.70 | Valparaiso | ||||
| 13 | Peters, Alec 25 | 6.72 | 4% | PF | So | Valparaiso | |
| 13 | Carter, Keith 0 | 3.00 | 0% | PG | Jr | Valparaiso | |
| 13 | Fernandez, Vashil 14 | 2.99 | 0% | C | Sr | Valparaiso | |
| 13 | Walker, Tevonn 2 | 2.63 | Quest | 0% | SF | Fr | Valparaiso |
| 13 | Walker, Darien 5 | 2.58 | 0% | SG | Jr | Valparaiso | |
| 13 | Adekoya, Jubril 23 | 1.17 | 0% | PF | So | Valparaiso | |
| 13 | Skara, David 10 | 1.15 | 0% | SF | Fr | Valparaiso | |
| 13 | Victor Nickerson, E. 1 | 1.05 | 0% | SF | Sr | Valparaiso | |
| 13 | Davidson, Nick 22 | 0.84 | 0% | SG | So | Valparaiso | |
| 13 | Chadwick, David 32 | 0.00 | 0% | C | Sr | Valparaiso | |
| 13 | Joseph, Max 3 | 0.00 | 0% | SG | Fr | Valparaiso | |
| 6 | Butler | 79.30 | Butler | ||||
| 6 | Woods, Kameron 31 | 5.87 | 2% | C | Sr | Butler | |
| 6 | Barlow, Alex 3 | 5.28 | 1% | SG | Sr | Butler | |
| 6 | Dunham, Kellen 24 | 4.76 | 0% | SF | Jr | Butler | |
| 6 | Chrabascz, Andrew 45 | 2.48 | Quest | 0% | PF | So | Butler |
| 6 | Jones, Roosevelt 21 | 2.38 | 0% | PG | Jr | Butler | |
| 6 | Etherington, Austin 0 | 0.86 | 0% | SF | Sr | Butler | |
| 6 | Martin, Kelan 30 | 0.54 | 0% | PF | Fr | Butler | |
| 6 | Wideman, Tyler 4 | 0.50 | 0% | C | Fr | Butler | |
| 6 | Davis, Jackson 13 | 0.35 | 0% | PF | Fr | Butler | |
| 6 | Aldridge, Jackson 11 | 0.00 | 0% | SG | Sr | Butler | |
| 11 | Texas | 78.80 | Texas | ||||
| 11 | Turner, Myles 52 | 5.49 | 93% | C | Fr | Texas | |
| 11 | Holmes, Jonathan 10 | 4.13 | 0% | PF | Sr | Texas | |
| 11 | Lammert, Connor 21 | 3.48 | 0% | SF | Jr | Texas | |
| 11 | Taylor, Isaiah 1 | 3.41 | 81% | PG | So | Texas | |
| 11 | Ridley, Cameron 55 | 3.14 | 0% | C | Jr | Texas | |
| 11 | Holland, Demarcus 2 | 2.75 | 0% | SG | Jr | Texas | |
| 11 | Felix, Javan 3 | 2.70 | 0% | PG | Jr | Texas | |
| 11 | Yancy, Kendal 0 | 2.60 | 0% | SG | So | Texas | |
| 11 | Ibeh, Prince 44 | 1.22 | 0% | C | Jr | Texas | |
| 11 | Barnett, Jordan 33 | 0.82 | 0% | SF | Fr | Texas | |
| 11 | Croaker, Damarcus 5 | 0.00 | 0% | SF | So | Texas | |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 84.20 | Notre Dame | ||||
| 3 | Grant, Jerian 22 | 9.15 | 86% | PG | Sr | Notre Dame | |
| 3 | Jackson, Demetrius 11 | 6.57 | 51% | SG | So | Notre Dame | |
| 3 | Connaughton, Pat 24 | 5.81 | 2% | PF | Sr | Notre Dame | |
| 3 | Auguste, Zach 30 | 4.15 | 0% | C | Jr | Notre Dame | |
| 3 | Vasturia, Steve 32 | 3.67 | 0% | SF | So | Notre Dame | |
| 3 | Colson, Bonzie 35 | 3.16 | 0% | PF | Fr | Notre Dame | |
| 3 | Beachem, V.J. 3 | 1.99 | 0% | SF | So | Notre Dame | |
| 3 | Farrell, Matt 5 | 0.83 | 0% | PG | Fr | Notre Dame | |
| 3 | Torres, Austin 1 | 0.83 | 0% | PF | So | Notre Dame | |
| 3 | Burgett, Austin 20 | 0.46 | 0% | PF | Jr | Notre Dame | |
| 3 | Geben, Martinas 23 | 0.00 | 0% | C | Fr | Notre Dame | |
| 3 | Katenda, Eric 15 | 0.00 | 0% | C | Jr | Notre Dame | |
| 14 | Northeastern | 58.40 | Northeastern | ||||
| 14 | Eatherton, Scott 43 | 3.27 | 0% | C | Sr | Northeastern | |
| 14 | Walker, David 4 | 3.15 | 0% | SG | Jr | Northeastern | |
| 14 | Ford, Quincy 12 | 1.66 | 0% | PF | Jr | Northeastern | |
| 14 | Donnelly, Caleb 15 | 1.29 | 0% | PG | Sr | Northeastern | |
| 14 | Stahl, Zach 33 | 1.18 | 0% | SF | So | Northeastern | |
| 14 | Williams, T.J. 10 | 1.02 | 0% | PG | So | Northeastern | |
| 14 | Begley, Devon 20 | 0.85 | 0% | PG | Fr | Northeastern | |
| 14 | Spencer, Reggie 44 | 0.39 | 0% | C | Sr | Northeastern | |
| 14 | Abakah, Kwesi 34 | 0.00 | 0% | C | So | Northeastern | |
| 14 | Marshall, Jimmy 3 | 0.00 | 0% | SF | So | Northeastern | |
| 7 | Wichita St. | 83.30 | Wichita St. | ||||
| 7 | Van Vleet, Fred 23 | 8.49 | 11% | PG | Jr | Wichita St. | |
| 7 | Baker, Ron 31 | 7.72 | 35% | SG | Jr | Wichita St. | |
| 7 | Cotton, Tekele 32 | 3.92 | 0% | SF | Sr | Wichita St. | |
| 7 | Carter, Darius 12 | 3.37 | 0% | C | Sr | Wichita St. | |
| 7 | Wessel, Evan 3 | 1.88 | 0% | PF | Jr | Wichita St. | |
| 7 | Morris, Shaquille 24 | 1.39 | 0% | PF | Fr | Wichita St. | |
| 7 | Holland, Ria’n 10 | 1.00 | 0% | PG | Fr | Wichita St. | |
| 7 | Brown, Zach 1 | 0.61 | 0% | PF | Fr | Wichita St. | |
| 7 | Glass, Tevin 40 | 0.56 | 0% | SF | Jr | Wichita St. | |
| 7 | Kelly, Rashard 0 | 0.55 | 0% | PF | Fr | Wichita St. | |
| 7 | Wamukota, Bush 21 | 0.34 | 0% | UK | Jr | Wichita St. | |
| 7 | Robert Simon, John 14 | 0.23 | 0% | UK | So | Wichita St. | |
| 7 | Walker, Jared 15 | 0.17 | 0% | UK | Fr | Wichita St. | |
| 7 | Nurger, Rauno 20 | 0.06 | 0% | C | Fr | Wichita St. | |
| 7 | Henderson, Corey 4 | 0.00 | 0% | SG | Fr | Wichita St. | |
| 10 | Indiana | 72.90 | Indiana | ||||
| 10 | Yogi Ferrell, Kevin 11 | 6.34 | 3% | PG | Jr | Indiana | |
| 10 | Williams, Troy 5 | 4.78 | 61% | PF | So | Indiana | |
| 10 | Blackmon, James 1 | 4.46 | 27% | SF | Fr | Indiana | |
| 10 | Zeisloft, Nick 2 | 2.87 | 0% | SF | Jr | Indiana | |
| 10 | Hartman, Collin 30 | 1.89 | 0% | PF | So | Indiana | |
| 10 | Johnson, Robert 4 | 1.72 | 0% | SG | Fr | Indiana | |
| 10 | Holt, Emmitt 25 | 1.72 | 0% | PF | Fr | Indiana | |
| 10 | Mosquera-Perea, Hanner 12 | 1.21 | Quest | 0% | C | Jr | Indiana |
| 10 | Robinson, Stanford 22 | 1.07 | 0% | SG | So | Indiana | |
| 10 | Burton, Ryan 10 | 0.87 | 0% | SG | Jr | Indiana | |
| 10 | Hoetzel, Max 3 | 0.12 | 0% | C | Fr | Indiana | |
| 2 | Kansas | 86.40 | Kansas | ||||
| 2 | Mason, Frank 0 | 7.04 | 5% | PG | So | Kansas | |
| 2 | Ellis, Perry 34 | 5.80 | 52% | PF | Jr | Kansas | |
| 2 | Oubre, Kelly 12 | 5.68 | 94% | SF | Fr | Kansas | |
| 2 | Selden, Wayne 1 | 3.24 | 21% | SG | So | Kansas | |
| 2 | Alexander, Cliff 2 | 3.07 | Quest | 83% | C | Fr | Kansas |
| 2 | Greene, Brannen 14 | 2.93 | 0% | SF | So | Kansas | |
| 2 | Graham, Devonte’ 4 | 2.49 | 0% | SG | Fr | Kansas | |
| 2 | Traylor, Jamari 31 | 2.12 | 0% | PF | Jr | Kansas | |
| 2 | Lucas, Landen 33 | 1.32 | 0% | C | So | Kansas | |
| 2 | Mykhailiuk, Sviatoslav 10 | 0.76 | 0% | SF | Fr | Kansas | |
| 2 | Mickelson, Hunter 42 | 0.63 | 0% | C | Jr | Kansas | |
| 15 | New Mexico St. | 62.70 | New Mexico St. | ||||
| 15 | Siakam, Pascal 43 | 5.55 | 2% | C | Fr | New Mexico St. | |
| 15 | Baker, Ian 4 | 3.83 | 0% | PG | So | New Mexico St. | |
| 15 | Mullings, Daniel 23 | 3.25 | 0% | SF | Sr | New Mexico St. | |
| 15 | Barry, Remi 3 | 2.64 | 0% | PF | Sr | New Mexico St. | |
| 15 | Eldridge, D.K. 1 | 1.41 | 0% | SG | Sr | New Mexico St. | |
| 15 | Nephawe, Tshilidzi 15 | 0.84 | 0% | C | Sr | New Mexico St. | |
| 15 | Landry, Travon 0 | 0.77 | 0% | SG | So | New Mexico St. | |
| 15 | Huggins, Braxton 2 | 0.50 | 0% | SF | Fr | New Mexico St. | |
| 15 | Penne, Jalyn 35 | 0.44 | 0% | PF | Fr | New Mexico St. | |
| 15 | Taylor, Matt 5 | 0.39 | 0% | SF | Fr | New Mexico St. | |
| 15 | Bhullar, Tanveer 21 | 0.37 | 0% | SF | Fr | New Mexico St. | |
| 15 | Wilkins, Jonathan 11 | 0.00 | 0% | C | Fr | New Mexico St. |
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