The East looks the most wide open, with five teams within 10 points of each other when comparing seven categories.
Villanova is a slight favorite due partly to Justin Anderson still appearing to be nowhere near 100 percent, and Michigan State, Oklahoma, and Northern Iowa are also very serious threats.
The table rates each team in the bracket on seven criteria (explained below the table), with a second table showing each player in the bracket, how valuable each player is, which are injured, and the chance that each player makes the NBA. Most important is how good the team is (see ESPN’s BPI here) subtracted by the Value Add of any injured players.
In both tables, teams appear in the same order in which they appear on the bracket.
| Seed | East Bracket | BPI | Health | Hot | NBA | Exp guard | F4 Coach | Top3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villanova | 90 | 1 | 3 | 2 | (1) | 95 | ||
| 16 | Lafayette | 55 | 1 | 56 | |||||
| 8 | North Carolina St. | 75 | 1 | 1 | 77 | ||||
| 9 | LSU | 74 | -1 | 1 | 74 | ||||
| 5 | Northern Iowa | 83 | 1 | 1 | 85 | ||||
| 12 | Wyoming | 62 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 66 | |||
| 4 | Louisville | 82 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 88 | ||
| 13 | UC Irvine | 62 | -1 | 61 | |||||
| 6 | Providence | 77 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 82 | |||
| 11 | Dayton | 77 | -1 | 76 | |||||
| 11 | Boise St. | 71 | -2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 75 | ||
| 3 | Oklahoma | 84 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 87 | |||
| 14 | Albany | 57 | 1 | 58 | |||||
| 7 | Michigan St. | 81 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 88 | |
| 10 | Georgia | 77 | 77 | ||||||
| 2 | Virginia | 91 | -2 | -1 | 1 | 1 | (1) | 89 | |
| 15 | Belmont | 54 | 1 | 55 |
The most important factor is simply how good a team is based on ESPN’s BPI. Health measures injuries. Hot indicates if the team improved in the closing week. NBA indicates how many NBA players the team will likely product. Exp guard indicates good seniors or juniors in the backcourt. F4 indicates a coach that has made surprising Final Four Runs. Top3 favors teams who rely more on three players who can dominate a game.
The BPI rating is repeated below, followed by how many points each player is worth based on www.valueaddbasketball.com. If a team had a 90 BPI, but a player with a 5.0 Value Add was out injured, then the actual BPI would really be an 85. However, if a team achieved that BPI despite a key player being injured and now he is back at full strength, we note that as well.
Villanova will try to win the bracket with eight very good players, but no real NBA prospects or superstars. Northern Iowa (Seth Tuttle), Providence (Kris Dunn), Oklahoma (Buddy Hield), and Louisville (Montrezl Harrell) all have players rated higher and with a much better chance of making the NBA than any one player on Villanova’s team. So, the Wildcats will have to contain a couple of superstars along the way to make the Final Four.
| Seed | East Bracket Players | Rating | Status | NBA | Pos | Yr | Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villanova | 90.20 | Villanova | ||||
| 1 | Hilliard, Darrun 4 | 7.35 | 5% | SG | Sr | Villanova | |
| 1 | Ochefu, Daniel 23 | 6.70 | 4% | C | Jr | Villanova | |
| 1 | Hart, Josh 3 | 5.91 | 2% | PF | So | Villanova | |
| 1 | Arcidiacono, Ryan 15 | 5.24 | 1% | PG | Jr | Villanova | |
| 1 | Ennis, Dylan 31 | 4.67 | 0% | SF | Jr | Villanova | |
| 1 | Pinkston, JayVaughn 22 | 4.24 | 0% | PF | Sr | Villanova | |
| 1 | Jenkins, Kris 2 | 3.56 | 0% | SF | So | Villanova | |
| 1 | Booth, Phil 5 | 3.29 | 0% | SG | Fr | Villanova | |
| 1 | Lowe, Henry 0 | 0.83 | 0% | PG | Jr | Villanova | |
| 1 | Reynolds, Darryl 14 | 0.31 | 0% | C | So | Villanova | |
| 16 | Lafayette | 55.00 | Lafayette | ||||
| 16 | Lindner, Nick 11 | 3.31 | 5% | PG | So | Lafayette | |
| 16 | Hinrichs, Seth 12 | 2.98 | 0% | PF | Sr | Lafayette | |
| 16 | Ptasinski, Joey 5 | 2.74 | 0% | SF | Sr | Lafayette | |
| 16 | Trist, Dan 20 | 2.64 | 0% | C | Sr | Lafayette | |
| 16 | Scott, Bryce 14 | 1.98 | 0% | SG | Jr | Lafayette | |
| 16 | Rufer, Zach 21 | 1.50 | 0% | SF | Jr | Lafayette | |
| 16 | Stafford, Eric 4 | 0.34 | 0% | SF | Fr | Lafayette | |
| 16 | Hoffman, Michael 24 | 0.06 | 0% | PF | So | Lafayette | |
| 16 | Boykins, Monty 32 | 0.00 | 0% | SG | So | Lafayette | |
| 16 | Flannigan, Alan 22 | 0.00 | 0% | PF | Sr | Lafayette | |
| 16 | Freeland, Ben 34 | 0.00 | 0% | SF | Jr | Lafayette | |
| 16 | Klinewski, Matt 13 | 0.00 | 0% | C | Fr | Lafayette | |
| 16 | Musters, Nathaniel 54 | 0.00 | 0% | C | Jr | Lafayette | |
| 16 | Newman, Jake 33 | 0.00 | 0% | C | So | Lafayette | |
| 8 | North Carolina St. | 74.80 | North Carolina St. | ||||
| 8 | Lacey, Trevor 1 | 6.18 | 3% | SG | Jr | North Carolina St. | |
| 8 | Barber, Anthony 12 | 4.27 | 32% | PG | So | North Carolina St. | |
| 8 | Turner, Ralston 22 | 4.25 | 0% | SF | Sr | North Carolina St. | |
| 8 | Anya, BeeJay 21 | 2.43 | 0% | PF | So | North Carolina St. | |
| 8 | Martin, Caleb 14 | 1.85 | 0% | SF | Fr | North Carolina St. | |
| 8 | Washington, Kyle 32 | 1.76 | 0% | PF | So | North Carolina St. | |
| 8 | Abu, Abdul-Malik 0 | 1.53 | 0% | PF | Fr | North Carolina St. | |
| 8 | Freeman, Lennard 10 | 1.10 | 0% | C | So | North Carolina St. | |
| 8 | Martin, Cody 15 | 0.88 | 0% | SF | Fr | North Carolina St. | |
| 8 | Lee, Desmond 5 | 0.64 | 0% | SF | Jr | North Carolina St. | |
| 9 | LSU | 73.90 | LSU | ||||
| 9 | Martin, Jarell 1 | 5.91 | 2% | SF | So | LSU | |
| 9 | Hornsby, Keith 4 | 5.08 | 1% | SG | Jr | LSU | |
| 9 | Mickey, Jordan 25 | 4.64 | 70% | PF | So | LSU | |
| 9 | Quarterman, Tim 55 | 4.38 | 0% | SF | So | LSU | |
| 9 | Patterson, Jalyn 15 | 3.36 | 0% | SF | Fr | LSU | |
| 9 | Gray, Josh 5 | 1.67 | 0% | PG | Jr | LSU | |
| 9 | Bridgewater, Brian 20 | 1.18 | 0% | SG | So | LSU | |
| 9 | Epps, Aaron 21 | 0.27 | 0% | PF | Fr | LSU | |
| 9 | Malone, Darcy 22 | 0.00 | 0% | C | So | LSU | |
| 9 | Odo, John 31 | 0.00 | 0% | C | Sr | LSU | |
| 9 | Robinson, Elbert 3 | 0.00 | 0% | C | Fr | LSU | |
| 5 | Northern Iowa | 83.30 | Northern Iowa | ||||
| 5 | Tuttle, Seth 10 | 8.56 | 12% | SF | Sr | Northern Iowa | |
| 5 | Morgan, Jeremy 20 | 4.46 | 0% | SF | So | Northern Iowa | |
| 5 | Washpun, Wes 11 | 3.62 | 0% | PG | Jr | Northern Iowa | |
| 5 | Bohannon, Matt 5 | 2.50 | 0% | SG | Jr | Northern Iowa | |
| 5 | Mitchell, Deon 1 | 2.44 | 0% | PG | Sr | Northern Iowa | |
| 5 | Jesperson, Paul 4 | 2.24 | 0% | PF | Jr | Northern Iowa | |
| 5 | Buss, Nate 14 | 1.82 | 0% | C | Sr | Northern Iowa | |
| 5 | Lohaus, Wyatt 33 | 1.81 | 0% | SG | Fr | Northern Iowa | |
| 5 | Singleton, Marvin 12 | 1.73 | 0% | C | Sr | Northern Iowa | |
| 5 | Carlson, Klint 2 | 0.50 | 0% | SF | Fr | Northern Iowa | |
| 5 | Koch, Bennett 25 | 0.00 | 0% | C | Fr | Northern Iowa | |
| 5 | Martino, Max 24 | 0.00 | 0% | SF | Sr | Northern Iowa | |
| 12 | Wyoming | 61.90 | Wyoming | ||||
| 12 | Nance, Larry 22 | 4.90 | PLUS | 0% | PF | Sr | Wyoming |
| 12 | Cooke, Derek 11 | 3.67 | 0% | C | Sr | Wyoming | |
| 12 | Adams, Josh 14 | 3.44 | 0% | PG | Jr | Wyoming | |
| 12 | Grabau, Riley 2 | 1.65 | 0% | SG | Sr | Wyoming | |
| 12 | Hankerson, Charles 1 | 1.07 | 0% | SF | Sr | Wyoming | |
| 12 | Bentz, Jack 13 | 0.83 | 0% | PG | Sr | Wyoming | |
| 12 | Lieberman, Jeremy 0 | 0.68 | 0% | SG | Fr | Wyoming | |
| 12 | McManamen, Jason 23 | 0.61 | 0% | SF | So | Wyoming | |
| 12 | Herndon, Alan 32 | 0.13 | 0% | PF | Fr | Wyoming | |
| 12 | Aka Gorski, Alexander 3 | 0.00 | 0% | SF | Fr | Wyoming | |
| 12 | Barnes, Jonathan 21 | 0.00 | 0% | C | Fr | Wyoming | |
| 12 | Sellers, Matt 41 | 0.00 | 0% | C | Sr | Wyoming | |
| 4 | Louisville | 82.30 | Louisville | ||||
| 4 | Harrell, Montrezl 24 | 7.39 | 92% | PF | Jr | Louisville | |
| 4 | Rozier, Terry 0 | 7.25 | 88% | SG | So | Louisville | |
| 4 | Blackshear, Wayne 25 | 5.12 | 1% | SF | Sr | Louisville | |
| 4 | Jones, Chris 3 | 4.86 | 0% | PG | Sr | Louisville | |
| 4 | Onuaku, Chinanu 32 | 2.15 | 0% | C | Fr | Louisville | |
| 4 | Mathiang, Mangok 12 | 1.45 | 0% | C | So | Louisville | |
| 4 | Gill, Anton 1 | 1.29 | 0% | SG | So | Louisville | |
| 4 | Snider, Quentin 2 | 1.20 | 0% | PG | Fr | Louisville | |
| 4 | Mahmoud, Anas 14 | 0.61 | 0% | PF | Fr | Louisville | |
| 4 | Levitch, David 23 | 0.58 | 0% | SF | So | Louisville | |
| 4 | Avare, Dillon 4 | 0.35 | 0% | SF | Fr | Louisville | |
| 4 | Johnson, Jaylen 10 | 0.26 | 0% | PF | Fr | Louisville | |
| 4 | Aaron, Shaqquan 21 | 0.12 | 0% | UK | Fr | Louisville | |
| 13 | UC Irvine | 62.30 | UC Irvine | ||||
| 13 | Davis, Will 3 | 4.35 | 0% | PF | Sr | UC Irvine | |
| 13 | Souza, Travis 2 | 3.40 | 0% | SF | Sr | UC Irvine | |
| 13 | Young, Alex 1 | 2.79 | 0% | SG | Jr | UC Irvine | |
| 13 | Martin, Jaron 0 | 2.24 | 0% | PG | So | UC Irvine | |
| 13 | Dunning, Dominique 24 | 1.64 | Quest | 0% | SF | Jr | UC Irvine |
| 13 | Nelson, Luke 10 | 1.42 | 0% | PG | So | UC Irvine | |
| 13 | Wright, Aaron 32 | 1.03 | 0% | SF | Jr | UC Irvine | |
| 13 | Ryan, John 25 | 0.92 | Quest | 0% | C | Sr | UC Irvine |
| 13 | Saprykinas, Haroldas 11 | 0.86 | 0% | SG | Fr | UC Irvine | |
| 13 | Best, Mike 33 | 0.77 | 0% | PF | Jr | UC Irvine | |
| 13 | Ndiaye, Mamadou 34 | 0.74 | 0% | C | So | UC Irvine | |
| 6 | Providence | 76.60 | Providence | ||||
| 6 | Dunn, Kris 3 | 7.94 | 63% | PG | So | Providence | |
| 6 | Henton, LaDontae 23 | 6.73 | 4% | SF | Sr | Providence | |
| 6 | Harris, Tyler 25 | 2.76 | 0% | PF | Jr | Providence | |
| 6 | Desrosiers, Carson 33 | 2.72 | 0% | C | Sr | Providence | |
| 6 | Lindsey, Jalen 21 | 1.28 | 0% | SG | Fr | Providence | |
| 6 | Chukwu, Paschal 13 | 1.20 | 0% | C | Fr | Providence | |
| 6 | Bentil, Ben 0 | 1.19 | 0% | C | Fr | Providence | |
| 6 | Cartwright, Kyron 24 | 1.14 | 0% | PG | Fr | Providence | |
| 6 | Lomomba, Junior 32 | 0.68 | 0% | SG | So | Providence | |
| 6 | Bancroft, Ted 22 | 0.28 | Indef | 0% | PF | Sr | Providence |
| 11 | Dayton | 76.70 | Dayton | ||||
| 11 | Boise St. | 71.40 | Boise St. | ||||
| 11 | Marks, Derrick 2 | 7.17 | 5% | PG | Sr | Boise St. | |
| 11 | Webb, James 23 | 6.22 | 3% | C | So | Boise St. | |
| 11 | Sibert, Jordan 24 | 6.10 | 3% | SF | Sr | Dayton | |
| 11 | Pierre, Dyshawn 21 | 4.20 | 0% | PF | Jr | Dayton | |
| 11 | Davis, Kyle 3 | 3.61 | 0% | SG | So | Dayton | |
| 11 | Smith, Scoochie 11 | 3.20 | 0% | PG | So | Dayton | |
| 11 | Heyer, Robert 22 | 2.81 | 0% | SF | Sr | Boise St. | |
| 11 | Pollard, Kendall 25 | 2.73 | 0% | PF | So | Dayton | |
| 11 | Duncan, Nick 13 | 2.37 | 0% | PF | So | Boise St. | |
| 11 | Davis, Darrell 1 | 1.27 | 0% | SG | Fr | Dayton | |
| 11 | Drmic, Anthony 3 | 1.26 | Season | 0% | SF | Sr | Boise St. |
| 11 | Hadziomerovic, Igor 12 | 1.18 | 0% | SG | Sr | Boise St. | |
| 11 | Alford, Montigo 21 | 1.04 | 0% | PG | Jr | Boise St. | |
| 11 | Thompson, Mikey 1 | 0.86 | 0% | SG | Jr | Boise St. | |
| 11 | Bass, Ryan 0 | 0.81 | Season | 0% | PG | Sr | Dayton |
| 11 | Haney, Zach 11 | 0.76 | 0% | SG | Fr | Boise St. | |
| 11 | Wehrli, Bobby 22 | 0.74 | 0% | PF | Jr | Dayton | |
| 11 | Scott, Devon 40 | 0.72 | Susp | 0% | C | Jr | Dayton |
| 11 | Trent, Dezmyn 0 | 0.49 | Indef | 0% | SF | So | Boise St. |
| 11 | Hutchison, Chandler 15 | 0.40 | 0% | PF | Fr | Boise St. | |
| 11 | Allen, Kevin 4 | 0.05 | 0% | C | Jr | Boise St. | |
| 11 | Hanstad, Joe 5 | 0.00 | 0% | SG | Sr | Boise St. | |
| 11 | Ness, Jake 34 | 0.00 | Quest | 0% | C | Sr | Boise St. |
| 11 | Wacker, David 33 | 0.00 | 0% | C | Fr | Boise St. | |
| 11 | Robinson, Jalen 12 | 0.00 | Susp | 0% | C | Jr | Dayton |
| 3 | Oklahoma | 83.50 | Oklahoma | ||||
| 3 | Hield, Buddy 24 | 7.46 | 79% | SG | Jr | Oklahoma | |
| 3 | Spangler, Ryan 0 | 6.46 | 3% | C | Jr | Oklahoma | |
| 3 | Cousins, Isaiah 11 | 5.08 | 1% | SF | Jr | Oklahoma | |
| 3 | Woodard, Jordan 10 | 4.77 | 0% | PG | So | Oklahoma | |
| 3 | Thomas, TaShawn 35 | 4.73 | 0% | PF | Sr | Oklahoma | |
| 3 | Booker, Frank 1 | 1.50 | 0% | SF | So | Oklahoma | |
| 3 | Walker, Dinjiyl 2 | 1.44 | 0% | PG | Jr | Oklahoma | |
| 3 | Lattin, Khadeem 12 | 1.43 | 0% | C | Fr | Oklahoma | |
| 3 | Bennett, D.J. 31 | 0.44 | 0% | C | Sr | Oklahoma | |
| 3 | Mankin, Austin 41 | 0.41 | 0% | SF | So | Oklahoma | |
| 3 | Cole, C.J. 25 | 0.04 | 0% | PF | So | Oklahoma | |
| 14 | Albany | 57.00 | Albany | ||||
| 14 | Rowley, Sam 14 | 3.71 | 0% | PF | Sr | Albany | |
| 14 | Sanders, Ray 1 | 2.28 | 0% | C | Jr | Albany | |
| 14 | Hooley, Peter 12 | 1.53 | 0% | SG | Jr | Albany | |
| 14 | Singletary, Evan 0 | 1.41 | 0% | UK | Jr | Albany | |
| 14 | Green, Tre 2 | 0.73 | 0% | SG | So | Albany | |
| 14 | Baker, Wheeler 25 | 0.69 | 0% | SG | Fr | Albany | |
| 14 | Ennema, Dallas 24 | 0.64 | 0% | SF | So | Albany | |
| 14 | Stire, Greig 43 | 0.13 | 0% | UK | Fr | Albany | |
| 14 | Peters, Richard 22 | 0.00 | 0% | C | So | Albany | |
| 14 | Rowley, Michael 10 | 0.00 | 0% | C | So | Albany | |
| 7 | Michigan St. | 81.10 | Michigan St. | ||||
| 7 | Trice, Travis 20 | 5.90 | 2% | PG | Sr | Michigan St. | |
| 7 | Valentine, Denzel 45 | 5.65 | 2% | SF | Jr | Michigan St. | |
| 7 | Dawson, Branden 22 | 4.97 | 16% | PF | Sr | Michigan St. | |
| 7 | Costello, Matt 10 | 3.67 | 0% | C | Jr | Michigan St. | |
| 7 | Forbes, Bryn 5 | 2.63 | 0% | SG | Jr | Michigan St. | |
| 7 | Clark, Marvin 0 | 1.33 | Indef | 0% | PF | Fr | Michigan St. |
| 7 | Schilling, Gavin 34 | 1.10 | 0% | C | So | Michigan St. | |
| 7 | Ellis, Alvin 3 | 0.91 | 0% | SG | So | Michigan St. | |
| 7 | Bess, Javon 2 | 0.58 | 0% | SF | Fr | Michigan St. | |
| 7 | Wollenman, Colby 41 | 0.20 | 0% | PF | Jr | Michigan St. | |
| 7 | Nairn, Lourawls 11 | 0.00 | 0% | SG | Fr | Michigan St. | |
| 7 | Wetzel, Keenan 15 | 0.00 | 0% | SF | Sr | Michigan St. | |
| 10 | Georgia | 77.30 | Georgia | ||||
| 10 | Frazier, J.J. 30 | 5.77 | 2% | PG | So | Georgia | |
| 10 | Thornton, Marcus 2 | 4.34 | 0% | C | Sr | Georgia | |
| 10 | Gaines, Kenny 12 | 4.06 | 0% | SG | Jr | Georgia | |
| 10 | Djurisic, Nemanja 42 | 3.37 | 0% | PF | Sr | Georgia | |
| 10 | Mann, Charles 4 | 2.06 | 0% | PG | Jr | Georgia | |
| 10 | Maten, Yante 1 | 1.24 | 0% | C | Fr | Georgia | |
| 10 | Forte, Cameron 11 | 1.08 | 0% | C | Jr | Georgia | |
| 10 | Parker, Juwan 3 | 1.00 | 0% | SF | So | Georgia | |
| 10 | Echols, Taylor 10 | 0.85 | 0% | PG | Sr | Georgia | |
| 10 | Paul Geno, Kenny 25 | 0.72 | 0% | SF | So | Georgia | |
| 10 | Iduwe, Osahen 15 | 0.00 | 0% | C | Fr | Georgia | |
| 10 | Kessler, Houston 24 | 0.00 | 0% | C | So | Georgia | |
| 2 | Virginia | 90.90 | Virginia | ||||
| 2 | Gill, Anthony 13 | 7.25 | 5% | PF | Jr | Virginia | |
| 2 | Brogdon, Malcolm 15 | 6.43 | 3% | PG | Jr | Virginia | |
| 2 | Anderson, Justin 1 | 5.28 | Hampered | 85% | SF | Jr | Virginia |
| 2 | Atkins, Darion 5 | 3.71 | 0% | C | Sr | Virginia | |
| 2 | Tobey, Mike 10 | 3.61 | 0% | C | Jr | Virginia | |
| 2 | Perrantes, London 32 | 3.49 | 0% | SG | So | Virginia | |
| 2 | Shayok, Marial 4 | 2.17 | 0% | SF | Fr | Virginia | |
| 2 | Nolte, Evan 11 | 1.33 | 0% | PF | Jr | Virginia | |
| 2 | Hall, Devon 0 | 1.20 | 0% | PG | Fr | Virginia | |
| 2 | Stith, B.J. 2 | 0.81 | 0% | SG | Fr | Virginia | |
| 2 | Wilkins, Isaiah 21 | 0.67 | 0% | C | Fr | Virginia | |
| 15 | Belmont | 54.10 | Belmont | ||||
| 15 | Chamberlain, Reece 22 | 3.66 | 0% | PG | Sr | Belmont | |
| 15 | Bradshaw, Craig 23 | 3.63 | 0% | SG | Jr | Belmont | |
| 15 | Bradds, Evan 35 | 3.22 | 0% | C | So | Belmont | |
| 15 | Barnette, Taylor 20 | 1.10 | 0% | SF | So | Belmont | |
| 15 | Egekeze, Amanze 32 | 0.93 | 0% | C | Fr | Belmont | |
| 15 | Sampson, Burton 21 | 0.78 | 0% | SG | Fr | Belmont | |
| 15 | Smith, Nick 2 | 0.60 | 0% | PF | So | Belmont | |
| 15 | Mercer, Mack 25 | 0.21 | 0% | PF | Fr | Belmont | |
| 15 | Chowbay, Caleb 5 | 0.00 | 0% | PG | So | Belmont | |
| 15 | Hadden, Tyler 41 | 0.00 | 0% | C | So | Belmont | |
| 15 | Laidig, Jeff 43 | 0.00 | 0% | C | Jr | Belmont | |
| 15 | Lester, Josh 31 | 0.00 | 0% | SF | Fr | Belmont | |
| 15 | Luke, Austin 1 | 0.00 | 0% | SG | Fr | Belmont | |
| 15 | Mobley, Holden 4 | 0.00 | 0% | SF | Sr | Belmont | |
| 15 | Turner, Spencer 11 | 0.00 | 0% | SF | Sr | Belmont |
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