More than 200,000 boys play high school basketball, with only 5% (just over 4,000) playing D1 in college. Even the best of those 4,000 in the Value Add database (Delon Wright) has just a 63% chance at the NBA.
The new ratings at www.valueaddbasketball.com include the chance each player has at making the NBA, and below we list anyone with at least a 15% chance at the NBA – all the way down to 2336th ranked Thomas Welsh (see photo by Mark J. Terrill/AP).
| Rnk | Player, Jersey | Team | Ht | Yr | Value Add | NBA? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wright, Delon 55 | Utah | 6’5″ | Sr | 12.73 | 63% |
| 2 | Cauley-Stein, Willie 15 | Kentucky | 7’0 | Jr | 10.73 | 89% |
| 3 | Payton, Gary 1 | Oregon St. | 6’3″ | Jr | 10.08 | 40% |
| 4 | Caffey, Michael 5 | Long Beach St. | 6’0 | Sr | 9.61 | 15% |
| 5 | Walden, Corey 2 | Eastern Kentucky | 6’2″ | Sr | 9.55 | 15% |
| 6 | Kaminsky, Frank 44 | Wisconsin | 7’0 | Sr | 9.48 | 79% |
| 7 | Pangos, Kevin 4 | Gonzaga | 6’2″ | Sr | 9.39 | 34% |
| 8 | Grant, Jerian 22 | Notre Dame | 6’5″ | Sr | 9.13 | 57% |
| 9 | Towns, Karl-Anthony 12 | Kentucky | 6’11” | Fr | 8.88 | 93% |
| 10 | Booker, Devin 1 | Kentucky | 6’6″ | Fr | 8.76 | 86% |
| 11 | Anderson, Justin 1 | Virginia | 6’6″ | Jr | 8.49 | 58% |
| 12 | Van Vleet, Fred 23 | Wichita St. | 6’0 | Jr | 8.49 | 33% |
| 13 | White, Aaron 30 | Iowa | 6’9″ | Sr | 8.43 | 43% |
| 14 | Pointer, Sir’Dominic 15 | St. John’s | 6’6″ | Sr | 8.42 | 13% |
| 15 | Randolph, Levi 20 | Alabama | 6’5″ | Sr | 8.36 | 29% |
| 16 | Hewitt, Jelani 5 | Georgia Southern | 6’2″ | Sr | 8.34 | 13% |
| 17 | Smith-Rivera, D’Vauntes 4 | Georgetown | 6’3″ | Jr | 8.31 | 24% |
| 18 | Russell, D’Angelo 0 | Ohio St. | 6’5″ | Fr | 8.24 | 92% |
| 19 | Payne, Cameron 1 | Murray St. | 6’2″ | So | 8.19 | 36% |
| 20 | Rozier, Terry 0 | Louisville | 6’1″ | So | 8.11 | 44% |
| 21 | Okafor, Jahlil 15 | Duke | 6’11” | Fr | 8.05 | 94% |
| 22 | Forte, Phil 13 | Oklahoma St. | 5’11” | Jr | 8.01 | 17% |
| 23 | Weber, Briante 2 | VCU | 6’2″ | Sr | 7.93 | 27% |
| 24 | Ulis, Tyler 3 | Kentucky | 5’9″ | Fr | 7.91 | 35% |
| 25 | Baker, Ron 31 | Wichita St. | 6’4″ | Jr | 7.86 | 32% |
| 26 | Harrison, Aaron 2 | Kentucky | 6’6″ | So | 7.80 | 29% |
| 27 | Mockevicius, Egidijus 55 | Evansville | 6’10” | Jr | 7.79 | 21% |
| 28 | Hawkins, Corey 3 | UC Davis | 6’3″ | Sr | 7.67 | 12% |
| 29 | Christmas, Rakeem 25 | Syracuse | 6’9″ | Sr | 7.54 | 23% |
| 30 | Mason, Frank 0 | Kansas | 5’11” | So | 7.51 | 21% |
| 31 | Tarpey, Terry 25 | William & Mary | 6’5″ | Jr | 7.51 | 13% |
| 32 | Warney, Jameel 20 | Stony Brook | 6’8″ | Jr | 7.49 | 19% |
| 33 | Gibbs, Jack 12 | Davidson | 5’11” | So | 7.47 | 21% |
| 34 | Johnson, Dakari 44 | Kentucky | 7’0 | So | 7.46 | 48% |
| 35 | Frazier, J.J. 30 | Georgia | 5’10” | So | 7.44 | 21% |
| 36 | McKinney, Mikh 10 | Sacramento St. | 6’1″ | Sr | 7.44 | 11% |
| 37 | Lee, Damion 14 | Drexel | 6’6″ | Jr | 7.44 | 13% |
| 38 | Gill, Anthony 13 | Virginia | 6’8″ | Jr | 7.43 | 15% |
| 39 | Brogdon, Malcolm 15 | Virginia | 6’5″ | Jr | 7.42 | 16% |
| 40 | Boatright, Ryan 11 | Connecticut | 6’0 | Sr | 7.41 | 17% |
| 41 | Wiltjer, Kyle 33 | Gonzaga | 6’10” | Jr | 7.40 | 20% |
| 42 | Martin, Hassan 12 | Rhode Island | 6’7″ | So | 7.26 | 20% |
| 43 | Hield, Buddy 24 | Oklahoma | 6’4″ | Jr | 7.24 | 29% |
| 44 | Jones, Tyus 5 | Duke | 6’1″ | Fr | 7.22 | 60% |
| 45 | Randle, Chasson 5 | Stanford | 6’2″ | Sr | 7.21 | 18% |
| 46 | Haws, Tyler 3 | BYU | 6’5″ | Sr | 7.21 | 16% |
| 47 | Tuttle, Seth 10 | Northern Iowa | 6’8″ | Sr | 7.21 | 10% |
| 48 | Henton, LaDontae 23 | Providence | 6’6″ | Sr | 7.19 | 10% |
| 49 | Collinsworth, Kyle 5 | BYU | 6’6″ | Jr | 7.18 | 12% |
| 50 | Marks, Derrick 2 | Boise St. | 6’3″ | Sr | 7.18 | 10% |
| 51 | Harvey, Tyler 1 | Eastern Washington | 6’4″ | Jr | 7.16 | 16% |
| 52 | Turner, Myles 52 | Texas | 6’11” | Fr | 7.15 | 81% |
| 53 | Meeks, Kennedy 3 | North Carolina | 6’9″ | So | 7.14 | 41% |
| 54 | Hayes, Nigel 10 | Wisconsin | 6’8″ | So | 7.09 | 28% |
| 56 | Sykes, Keifer 24 | Green Bay | 6’0 | Sr | 7.03 | 27% |
| 58 | Nance, Larry 22 | Wyoming | 6’8″ | Sr | 7.01 | 20% |
| 60 | Richardson, Josh 1 | Tennessee | 6’6″ | Sr | 6.94 | 15% |
| 61 | Morris, Monte 11 | Iowa St. | 6’2″ | So | 6.89 | 26% |
| 64 | Rice, Rayvonte 24 | Illinois | 6’4″ | Sr | 6.83 | 21% |
| 65 | Trimble, Melo 2 | Maryland | 6’3″ | Fr | 6.83 | 15% |
| 66 | Dunn, Kris 3 | Providence | 6’3″ | So | 6.82 | 28% |
| 67 | Harrell, Montrezl 24 | Louisville | 6’8″ | Jr | 6.80 | 69% |
| 68 | Woodley, Zikiteran 23 | Northwestern St. | 6’2″ | So | 6.77 | 19% |
| 69 | Lyles, Trey 41 | Kentucky | 6’10” | Fr | 6.77 | 73% |
| 70 | Johnson, Stanley 5 | Arizona | 6’6″ | Fr | 6.76 | 90% |
| 71 | Layman, Jake 10 | Maryland | 6’9″ | Jr | 6.74 | 52% |
| 72 | Jackson, Demetrius 11 | Notre Dame | 6’1″ | So | 6.73 | 30% |
| 73 | Gathers, Rico 2 | Baylor | 6’8″ | Jr | 6.68 | 26% |
| 74 | Graham, Treveon 21 | VCU | 6’6″ | Sr | 6.68 | 23% |
| 75 | Brown, Anthony 21 | Stanford | 6’6″ | Sr | 6.68 | 32% |
| 76 | Yogi Ferrell, Kevin 11 | Indiana | 6’0 | Jr | 6.64 | 34% |
| 82 | Cook, Quinn 2 | Duke | 6’2″ | Sr | 6.48 | 19% |
| 84 | Peters, Alec 25 | Valparaiso | 6’9″ | So | 6.43 | 18% |
| 86 | Garino, Patricio 13 | George Washington | 6’6″ | So | 6.42 | 26% |
| 88 | Harris, Marvelle 23 | Fresno St. | 6’4″ | Jr | 6.38 | 16% |
| 92 | Robinson, Justin 12 | Monmouth | 5’8″ | So | 6.32 | 17% |
| 94 | Carlino, Matt 13 | Marquette | 6’2″ | Sr | 6.30 | 15% |
| 97 | Blackshear, Wayne 25 | Louisville | 6’5″ | Sr | 6.27 | 22% |
| 99 | Hilliard, Darrun 4 | Villanova | 6’6″ | Sr | 6.21 | 20% |
| 102 | Caupain, Troy 10 | Cincinnati | 6’3″ | So | 6.19 | 24% |
| 105 | Brimah, Amida 35 | Connecticut | 7’0 | So | 6.15 | 46% |
| 107 | Frazier, Michael 20 | Florida | 6’4″ | Jr | 6.15 | 29% |
| 109 | Paige, Marcus 5 | North Carolina | 6’1″ | Jr | 6.15 | 30% |
| 110 | Anderson, Kyan 5 | TCU | 5’11” | Sr | 6.14 | 17% |
| 111 | Wills, Dre 24 | Vermont | 6’1″ | So | 6.14 | 16% |
| 113 | Saunders, Wesley 23 | Harvard | 6’5″ | Sr | 6.13 | 23% |
| 115 | Looney, Kevon 5 | UCLA | 6’9″ | Fr | 6.09 | 85% |
| 116 | Portis, Bobby 10 | Arkansas | 6’11” | So | 6.07 | 67% |
| 117 | Caruso, Alex 21 | Texas A&M | 6’5″ | Jr | 6.06 | 24% |
| 119 | Denny, Zack 4 | Bowling Green | 6’2″ | So | 6.02 | 16% |
| 122 | Hunter, R.J. 22 | Georgia St. | 6’6″ | Jr | 5.99 | 53% |
| 125 | Baldwin, Wade 4 | Vanderbilt | 6’3″ | Fr | 5.94 | 16% |
| 126 | Hollis-Jefferson, Rondae 23 | Arizona | 6’7″ | So | 5.93 | 61% |
| 128 | Moore, Jalen 14 | Utah St. | 6’8″ | So | 5.92 | 15% |
| 133 | Bembry, DeAndre 43 | Saint Joseph’s | 6’6″ | So | 5.74 | 19% |
| 134 | Harrison, Andrew 5 | Kentucky | 6’6″ | So | 5.72 | 30% |
| 137 | Martin, Jarell 1 | Temple | 6’10” | So | 5.70 | 31% |
| 141 | Upshaw, Robert 24 | Washington | 6’11” | So | 5.62 | 75% |
| 142 | Scott, Josh 40 | Colorado | 6’10” | Jr | 5.62 | 28% |
| 144 | Williams, Alan 15 | UC Santa Barbara | 6’8″ | Sr | 5.59 | 27% |
| 149 | Hawkinson, Josh 24 | Washington St. | 6’10” | So | 5.52 | 15% |
| 153 | Webb, James 23 | Boise St. | 6’9″ | So | 5.49 | 20% |
| 154 | Holmes, Jonathan 10 | Texas | 6’8″ | Sr | 5.45 | 30% |
| 159 | Mickey, Jordan 25 | LSU | 6’8″ | So | 5.42 | 29% |
| 163 | Ellis, Perry 34 | Kansas | 6’8″ | Jr | 5.37 | 27% |
| 164 | Qualls, Michael 24 | Arkansas | 6’6″ | Jr | 5.36 | 30% |
| 165 | Johnson, Brice 11 | North Carolina | 6’9″ | Jr | 5.34 | 32% |
| 168 | Smith, Joshua 24 | Georgetown | 6’10” | Sr | 5.31 | 28% |
| 174 | Staten, Juwan 3 | West Virginia | 6’1″ | Sr | 5.26 | 28% |
| 177 | Scott, Shannon 3 | Ohio St. | 6’1″ | Sr | 5.22 | 31% |
| 179 | Jones, Damian 30 | Vanderbilt | 6’10” | So | 5.19 | 38% |
| 184 | Young, Joseph 3 | Oregon | 6’2″ | Sr | 5.10 | 23% |
| 188 | Nichols, Austin 4 | Memphis | 6’8″ | So | 5.05 | 22% |
| 194 | Delgado, Angel 31 | Seton Hall | 6’9″ | Fr | 4.94 | 16% |
| 196 | Williams-Goss, Nigel 5 | Washington | 6’3″ | So | 4.92 | 29% |
| 199 | Dejean-Jones, Bryce 13 | Iowa St. | 6’6″ | Sr | 4.88 | 17% |
| 202 | Sabonis, Domantas 11 | Gonzaga | 6’10” | Fr | 4.86 | 31% |
| 203 | LeVert, Caris 23 | Michigan | 6’7″ | Jr | 4.85 | 56% |
| 205 | Jefferson, Amile 21 | Duke | 6’9″ | Jr | 4.83 | 17% |
| 206 | Dekker, Sam 15 | Wisconsin | 6’9″ | Jr | 4.81 | 71% |
| 207 | Cummings, Will 2 | Temple | 6’2″ | Sr | 4.81 | 21% |
| 211 | Hunter, Vince 32 | UTEP | 6’8″ | So | 4.77 | 21% |
| 215 | Sibert, Jordan 24 | Dayton | 6’4″ | Sr | 4.75 | 20% |
| 220 | Tobey, Mike 10 | Virginia | 7’0 | Jr | 4.72 | 26% |
| 223 | Valentine, Denzel 45 | Michigan St. | 6’5″ | Jr | 4.70 | 16% |
| 227 | Powell, Norman 4 | UCLA | 6’4″ | Sr | 4.65 | 31% |
| 228 | Nash, Le’Bryan 2 | Oklahoma St. | 6’7″ | Jr | 4.65 | 23% |
| 233 | Alexander, Cliff 2 | Kansas | 6’8″ | Fr | 4.62 | 65% |
| 238 | Blackmon, James 1 | Indiana | 6’4″ | Fr | 4.58 | 32% |
| 240 | Oubre, Kelly 12 | Kansas | 6’7″ | Fr | 4.56 | 77% |
| 250 | Williams, Troy 5 | Indiana | 6’7″ | So | 4.48 | 25% |
| 256 | Obekpa, Chris 12 | St. John’s | 6’10” | Jr | 4.45 | 29% |
| 267 | Wood, Christian 5 | UNLV | 6’11” | So | 4.38 | 53% |
| 269 | Bluiett, Trevon 5 | Xavier | 6’6″ | Fr | 4.37 | 21% |
| 273 | Harrow, Ryan 55 | Georgia St. | 6’2″ | Sr | 4.33 | 18% |
| 275 | Finney-Smith, Dorian 10 | Florida | 6’8″ | Jr | 4.31 | 15% |
| 294 | Jackson, Justin 44 | North Carolina | 6’8″ | Fr | 4.17 | 32% |
| 295 | Thompson, Sam 12 | Ohio St. | 6’7″ | Sr | 4.16 | 23% |
| 308 | Auguste, Zach 30 | Notre Dame | 6’10” | Jr | 4.10 | 19% |
| 321 | Karnowski, Przemek 24 | Gonzaga | 7’1″ | Jr | 4.02 | 20% |
| 334 | Petteway, Terran 5 | Nebraska | 6’6″ | Jr | 3.96 | 28% |
| 344 | Poeltl, Jakob 42 | Utah | 7’0 | Fr | 3.92 | 59% |
| 358 | Tokoto, J.P. 13 | North Carolina | 6’6″ | Jr | 3.83 | 24% |
| 368 | Olaseni, Gabriel 0 | Iowa | 6’10” | Sr | 3.77 | 15% |
| 379 | Dawson, Branden 22 | Michigan St. | 6’6″ | Sr | 3.69 | 17% |
| 381 | Davis, Dee 11 | Xavier | 6’0 | 3.68 | 73% | |
| 385 | Wallace, Tyrone 3 | California | 6’5″ | Jr | 3.67 | 36% |
| 396 | Summers, Jarvis 32 | Mississippi | 6’3″ | Sr | 3.61 | 16% |
| 397 | Ashley, Brandon 21 | Arizona | 6’8″ | Jr | 3.61 | 19% |
| 407 | Thomas, TaShawn 35 | Oklahoma | 6’8″ | Sr | 3.56 | 16% |
| 413 | Long, Shawn 21 | Louisiana Lafayette | 6’9″ | Jr | 3.55 | 29% |
| 457 | Hollins, Andre 1 | Minnesota | 6’2″ | Sr | 3.32 | 16% |
| 475 | Vaughn, Rashad 1 | UNLV | 6’6″ | Fr | 3.25 | 42% |
| 481 | Foster, Marcus 2 | Kansas St. | 6’3″ | So | 3.23 | 20% |
| 507 | Jordan, Rysheed 23 | St. John’s | 6’4″ | So | 3.14 | 15% |
| 517 | Taylor, Isaiah 1 | Texas | 6’1″ | So | 3.10 | 19% |
| 524 | Winslow, Justise 12 | Duke | 6’6″ | Fr | 3.08 | 82% |
| 558 | McLaughlin, Jordan 11 | USC | 6’1″ | Fr | 2.99 | 15% |
| 582 | Hamilton, Daniel 5 | Connecticut | 6’7″ | Fr | 2.90 | 22% |
| 598 | Wells, Dez 44 | Maryland | 6’5″ | Sr | 2.84 | 16% |
| 614 | Niang, Georges 31 | Iowa St. | 6’8″ | Jr | 2.80 | 16% |
| 652 | Lee, Marcus 0 | Kentucky | 6’9″ | So | 2.68 | 16% |
| 665 | Ridley, Cameron 55 | Texas | 6’9″ | Jr | 2.64 | 16% |
| 682 | McCullough, Chris 5 | Syracuse | 6’10” | Fr | 2.58 | 32% |
| 685 | Whitehead, Isaiah 15 | Seton Hall | 6’4″ | Fr | 2.57 | 24% |
| 764 | Sulaimon, Rasheed 14 | Duke | 6’5″ | Jr | 2.38 | 15% |
| 815 | Pinson, Theo 1 | North Carolina | 6’6″ | Fr | 2.28 | 25% |
| 817 | Brooks, Dillon 24 | Oregon | 6’5″ | Fr | 2.27 | 21% |
| 827 | Matthews, E.C. 0 | Rhode Island | 6’5″ | So | 2.24 | 22% |
| 828 | Onuaku, Chinanu 32 | Louisville | 6’10” | Fr | 2.23 | 19% |
| 893 | Irvin, Zak 21 | Michigan | 6’6″ | So | 2.09 | 15% |
| 918 | Hill, Kasey 0 | Florida | 6’1″ | So | 2.04 | 15% |
| 989 | Martin, Caleb 14 | North Carolina St. | 6’7″ | Fr | 1.93 | 17% |
| 1011 | Bates-Diop, Keita 33 | Ohio St. | 6’7″ | Fr | 1.90 | 16% |
| 1035 | Copeland, Isaac 11 | Georgetown | 6’9″ | Fr | 1.86 | 18% |
| 1062 | Selden, Wayne 1 | Kansas | 6’5″ | So | 1.80 | 15% |
| 1424 | Robinson, Devin 3 | Florida | 6’8″ | Fr | 1.35 | 25% |
| 1597 | Allen, Grayson 3 | Duke | 6’4″ | Fr | 1.15 | 21% |
| 1713 | Kingsley, Moses 33 | Arkansas | 6’10” | Fr | 1.06 | 24% |
| 1806 | Chukwu, Paschal 13 | Providence | 7’2″ | Fr | 0.97 | 20% |
| 1898 | Pope, Malik 21 | San Diego St. | 6’10” | Fr | 0.85 | 21% |
| 1952 | Haas, Isaac 44 | Purdue | 7’2″ | Fr | 0.80 | 22% |
| 1988 | Walker, Chris 23 | Florida | 6’10” | So | 0.78 | 18% |
| 2003 | Travis, Reid 22 | Stanford | 6’8″ | Fr | 0.76 | 19% |
| 2138 | Burton, Deonte 30 | Marquette | 6’4″ | So | 0.64 | 16% |
| 2157 | Mykhailiuk, Sviatoslav 10 | Kansas | 6’8″ | Fr | 0.63 | 25% |
| 2178 | Ristic, Dusan 14 | Arizona | 7’0 | Fr | 0.61 | 20% |
| 2209 | Victor, Craig 3 | Arizona | 6’7″ | Fr | 0.58 | 15% |
| 2260 | Bird, Jabari 23 | California | 6’6″ | So | 0.53 | 19% |
| 2336 | Welsh, Thomas 40 | UCLA | 7’0 | Fr | 0.48 | 18% |
Value Add ranks players based on how many points they are worth to their college teams, and any freshman worth 3.0 points or more should be watched because the Value often more than doubles by their sophomore year. It is rare for a college senior to make the NBA, so in general a senior with a 6.0 Value Add has a much lower chance of making the NBA than a freshman.
The players with an 80% or higher ratings are pretty-sure NBA players–but we leave the percentage there to account for the risk of injury.
This is why the 4.67 that Hassan Whiteside achieved as a freshman in 2010 (click for all-time database) made him appear such a strong NBA prospect five years before he erupted on ABC this weekend. In addition to the college Value, “NBA Factors” are incorporated into Value Add’s chance of a player making the NBA, so the length, shot-blocking, and defensive rebounding of Welsh, the freshman 7-footer, gives him a chance at the NBA even though so far this season he has been worth less than half a point to UCLA.
The database has been updated to show the chance each player has at the NBA.
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