When Breitbart Sports calculated that the Pac-12 ranked as the top conference due to being +12 points better than the average team, SEC partisans vehemently disagreed. Few dispute that the Pac-12 stands as No. 1 again in the bowl season with an even more impressive +15.2 point rating. The SEC needs a Tennessee win over Iowa Friday to hold off the Big Ten for No. 2.
Oregon’s 59-20 drubbing of Florida State in the Rose Bowl gives the Pac-12 a 5-1 mark with UCLA and Washington still playing Friday and Oregon playing for the National title on January 12 against Ohio State.
The bowl season has almost mirrored the regular season for the SEC and the Big Ten, with the SEC starting out as the dominant conference and the Big Ten virtually written off by Breitbart Sports and everyone else. The SEC meanwhile started 5-1 against Power Conferences and at one point had five SEC West teams in the top seven in the nation in a computer rating.
However, on September 22, Breitbart Sports reported that the Big Ten had completely turned around the season with a 12-1 burst that included lowly Indiana stunning eventual SEC East champion Missouri. That game began a five-game losing streak against Power Conferences for the SEC.
The SEC likewise started hot in the Bowl games with Arkansas and SEC East teams winning to seemingly put the conference in an easy position to be ranked as the top conference. However, all five SEC West teams that had been rated in the top seven at one point lost their Bowl games–concluding with Ohio State stunning Alabama in the Sugar Bowl/Semifinal.
While Missouri beat Minnesota, Wisconsin also beat Auburn to give the Big Ten a 2-1 mark against the SEC on New Year’s Day. Because the SEC has put 10th, 11th, and 12th place teams on the field whereas the lower-ranked teams in other conferences do not make bowl games, the SEC still has an overall slight edge over the Big Ten for second place that should hold up if Tennessee beats Iowa Friday. However, an Iowa win would complete a turnaround from when Urban Meyer–ironically–put the SEC on top with Florida’s blowout of his current Ohio State team.
Michigan State’s huge rally to defeat Baylor helped propel the Big Ten surge into the top 3 (Note: An error in yesterday’s story showed the Big 12 four points higher than they actually were at that point).
The ratings with just a few games to go are:
1. Pac-12 +15.2 (points better than average team)
2. SEC +12.1
3. Big Ten +10.9
4. Big 12 +7.3
5. ACC +6.4
Independents +2.1
6. Conference USA -3.8
7. American Athletic -9.3
8. Mountain West -9.5
9. Sun Belt -13.0
10. Mid-American -15.8
| Conference Team | %W | Pred | Opponent | Win? | Margin | Adjust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | 40% | -3.5 | Virginia Tech | 0 | -16.0 | (1.30) |
| East Carolina | 21% | -10.5 | Florida | 3-Jan | ||
| Houston | 30% | -6.5 | Pittsburgh | 2-Jan | ||
| Memphis | 49% | -0.5 | BYU | 1 | 1.0 | 1.08 |
| UCF | 47% | -2.5 | NC State | 0 | -7.0 | (1.12) |
| American -9.3 below average | 1.9 | (23.5) | – | 1.0 | (22.0) | (9.3) |
| Boston College | 65% | 5.5 | Penn St | 0 | -1.0 | (1.56) |
| Clemson | 41% | -3.5 | Oklahoma | 1 | 25.0 | 2.32 |
| Duke | 28% | -7.5 | Arizona St | 0 | -5.0 | (0.46) |
| Florida St | 20% | -10.5 | Oregon | 0 | -25.0 | (0.98) |
| Georgia Tech | 39% | -3.5 | Mississippi St | 1 | 15.0 | 1.96 |
| Louisville | 29% | -6.5 | Georgia | 0 | -23.0 | (1.24) |
| Miami FL | 46% | -2.5 | South Carolina | 0 | -3.0 | (0.94) |
| NC State | 53% | 2.5 | UCF | 1 | 7.0 | 1.12 |
| North Carolina | 59% | 3.5 | Rutgers | 0 | -19.0 | (2.08) |
| Pittsburgh | 70% | 6.5 | Houston | 2-Jan | ||
| Virginia Tech | 60% | 3.5 | Cincinnati | 1 | 16.0 | 1.30 |
| Atlantic Coast +6.4 > Average | 5.1 | (12.5) | – | 4.0 | (13.0) | 6.4 |
| Illinois | 37% | -4.5 | Louisiana Tech | 0 | -17.0 | (1.24) |
| Iowa | 37% | -4.5 | Tennessee | 2-Jan | ||
| Maryland | 15% | -14.5 | Stanford | 0 | -24.0 | (0.68) |
| Michigan St | 50% | -0.5 | Baylor | 1 | 1.0 | 1.06 |
| Minnesota | 29% | -7.5 | Missouri | 0 | -16.0 | (0.92) |
| Nebraska | 37% | -4.5 | USC | 0 | -3.0 | (0.68) |
| Ohio St | 31% | -6.5 | Alabama | 1 | 7.0 | 1.92 |
| Penn St | 35% | -5.5 | Boston College | 1 | 1.0 | 1.56 |
| Rutgers | 41% | -3.5 | North Carolina | 1 | 19.0 | 2.08 |
| Wisconsin | 32% | -6.5 | Auburn | 1 | 1.0 | 1.66 |
| Big 10 +10.7 > average | 3.4 | (58.0) | – | 5.0 | (31.0) | 10.9 |
| Baylor | 50% | 0.5 | Michigan St | 0 | -1.0 | (1.06) |
| Kansas St | 51% | 0.5 | UCLA | 2-Jan | ||
| Oklahoma | 59% | 3.5 | Clemson | 0 | -25.0 | (2.32) |
| Oklahoma St | 32% | -6.5 | Washington | 2-Jan | ||
| TCU | 49% | -0.5 | Mississippi | 1 | 25.0 | 2.04 |
| Texas | 26% | -7.5 | Arkansas | 0 | -24.0 | (1.18) |
| West Virginia | 47% | -1.5 | Texas A&M | 0 | -8.0 | (1.20) |
| Big 12 +6.3 > Average | 3.1 | (11.5) | – | 1.0 | (33.0) | 7.3 |
| Louisiana Tech | 63% | 4.5 | Illinois | 1 | 17.0 | 1.24 |
| Marshall | 72% | 7.5 | N Illinois | 1 | 25.0 | 1.26 |
| Rice | 55% | 2.5 | Fresno St | 1 | 24.0 | 1.76 |
| UTEP | 20% | -10.5 | Utah St | 0 | -15.0 | (0.58) |
| W Kentucky | 67% | 5.5 | C Michigan | 1 | 1.0 | 0.48 |
| CUSA -3.8 below ave | 2.8 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 52.0 | (3.8) | |
| – | ||||||
| BYU | 51% | 0.5 | Memphis | 0 | -1.0 | (1.08) |
| Navy | 44% | -2.5 | @ San Diego St | 1 | 1.0 | 1.26 |
| Notre Dame | 28% | -7.5 | LSU | 1 | 3.0 | 1.86 |
| FBS Indep +2.1 > average | 0.7 | (10.0) | – | 2.0 | 4.0 | 2.1 |
| – | ||||||
| Bowling Green | 48% | -1.5 | South Alabama | 1 | 5.0 | 1.30 |
| C Michigan | 33% | -5.5 | W Kentucky | 0 | -1.0 | (0.48) |
| N Illinois | 28% | -7.5 | Marshall | 0 | -25.0 | (1.26) |
| Toledo | 53% | 1.5 | Arkansas St | 4-Jan | ||
| W Michigan | 45% | -2.5 | Air Force | 0 | -14.0 | (1.36) |
| Mid-American -15.8 below ave | 2.1 | (15.5) | – | 1.0 | (35.0) | (15.8) |
| Air Force | 55% | 2.5 | W Michigan | 1 | 14.0 | 1.36 |
| Boise St | 29% | -6.5 | Arizona | 1 | 8.0 | 2.00 |
| Colorado St | 33% | -6.5 | Utah | 0 | -25.0 | (1.40) |
| Fresno St | 45% | -2.5 | Rice | -24.0 | (1.76) | |
| Nevada | 66% | 5.5 | ULL | 0 | -13.0 | (2.06) |
| San Diego St | 56% | 2.5 | Navy | 0 | -1.0 | (1.26) |
| Utah St | 80% | 10.5 | UTEP | 1 | 15.0 | 0.58 |
| Mountain West -9.5 below ave | 3.6 | 5.5 | – | 3.0 | (26.0) | (9.5) |
| Arizona | 71% | 6.5 | Boise St | 0 | -8.0 | (2.00) |
| Arizona St | 72% | 7.5 | Duke | 1 | 5.0 | 0.46 |
| Oregon | 80% | 10.5 | Florida St | 1 | 25.0 | 0.98 |
| Stanford | 85% | 14.5 | Maryland | 1 | 24.0 | 0.68 |
| UCLA | 49% | -0.5 | Kansas St | 2-Jan | ||
| USC | 63% | 4.5 | Nebraska | 1 | 3.0 | 0.68 |
| Utah | 67% | 6.5 | Colorado St | 1 | 25.0 | 1.40 |
| Washington | 68% | 6.5 | Oklahoma St | 2-Jan | ||
| Pac 12 +15.2 > average | 5.6 | 56.0 | – | 5.0 | 74.0 | 15.2 |
| Alabama | 69% | 6.5 | Ohio St | 0 | -7.0 | (1.92) |
| Arkansas | 74% | 7.5 | Texas | 1 | 24.0 | 1.18 |
| Auburn | 68% | 6.5 | Wisconsin | 0 | -1.0 | (1.66) |
| Florida | 79% | 10.5 | East Carolina | 3-Jan | ||
| Georgia | 71% | 6.5 | Louisville | 1 | 23.0 | 1.24 |
| LSU | 72% | 7.5 | Notre Dame | 0 | -3.0 | (1.86) |
| Mississippi | 51% | 0.5 | TCU | 0 | -25.0 | (2.04) |
| Mississippi St | 61% | 3.5 | Georgia Tech | 0 | -15.0 | (1.96) |
| Missouri | 71% | 7.5 | Minnesota | 1 | 16.0 | 0.92 |
| South Carolina | 54% | 2.5 | Miami FL | 1 | 3.0 | 0.94 |
| Tennessee | 63% | 4.5 | Iowa | 2-Jan | ||
| Texas A&M | 53% | 1.5 | West Virginia | 1 | 8.0 | 1.20 |
| Southeastern +12.1 > average | 7.9 | 65.0 | 5.0 | 23.0 | 12.1 | |
| Arkansas St | 47% | -1.5 | Toledo | 4-Jan | ||
| South Alabama | 52% | 1.5 | Bowling Green | 0 | -5.0 | (1.30) |
| ULL | 34% | -5.5 | Nevada | 1 | 13.0 | 2.06 |
| Sun Belt -13.0 below ave | 1.3 | (5.5) | – | 1.0 | 8.0 | (13.0) |
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