Big 12 advocates grumbled when Breitbart Sports rated the Big 12 as the fourth best conference for the regular season, and then the committee did not choose a Big 12 team for the first playoffs. Both were vindicated Monday as the Big 12 was beaten up in their first three games to fall to 5th in the Conference Ratings (see table below) – making it clear the Pac-12 and SEC are in a two-way battle for best conference this bowl season.
West Virginia’s Skyler Howard capped a big day with his third-down pass late in the fourth quarter, but the Mountaineers still feel short 45-37 against Texas A&M. Meanwhile the two marquee programs, Texas and Oklahoma, were drubbed by Arkansas and Clemson respectively. Nebraska had left the Big 12 after Texas maneuvered to end the Nebraska-Oklahoma rivalry to put the focus on the Red River Showdown.
The Conference Bowl Standings are now as follows:
+19 – The SEC needed 7.9 wins by a margin of +65 to back up their rating of +16. Monday’s wins put them ahead of that pace with a 3-0 mark by a 35-point margin with nine games to play, but will fall if touchdown favorite Georgia or LSU slip today.
+16 – The Pac-12 also has a 3-0 mark and 33-point margin and will need their biggest favorite – Stanford – to be strong today against Maryland of the Big Ten.
+8 The Big Ten has moved up to 3rd as the best of the rest. Their teams were underdogs in all 10 Bowl Games, but are already 2-2 and exactly even in scoring margin. A Maryland upset today would be a huge.
+7 The ACC has been exactly as good as expected to stay at +7, and could get a huge boost if Louisville can upset Georgia today to follow-up on Georgia Tech’s win against them at the end of the regular season.
+5 The Big 12 desperately needs a win New Year’s Eve from TCU, one of the two teams they thought deserved a playoff spot.
-4 Conference USA has all but wrapped up their standing as the best of the Group of 5 conferences.
| Conference Team | %W | Pred | Opponent | Win? | Margin | Adjust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | 40% | -3.5 | Virginia Tech | 0 | -16.0 | (1.30) |
| East Carolina | 21% | -10.5 | Florida | 3-Jan | ||
| Houston | 30% | -6.5 | Pittsburgh | 2-Jan | ||
| Memphis | 49% | -0.5 | BYU | 1 | 1.0 | 1.08 |
| UCF | 47% | -2.5 | NC State | 0 | -7.0 | (1.12) |
| American Athletic starts at -8 | 1.9 | (23.5) | – | 1.0 | (22.0) | (9) |
| – | ||||||
| Boston College | 65% | 5.5 | Penn St | 0 | -1.0 | (1.56) |
| Clemson | 41% | -3.5 | Oklahoma | 1 | 25.0 | 2.32 |
| Duke | 28% | -7.5 | Arizona St | 0 | -5.0 | (0.46) |
| Florida St | 20% | -10.5 | Oregon | 1-Jan | ||
| Georgia Tech | 39% | -3.5 | Mississippi St | 31-Dec | ||
| Louisville | 29% | -6.5 | Georgia | 3-Dec | ||
| Miami FL | 46% | -2.5 | South Carolina | 0 | -3.0 | (0.94) |
| NC State | 53% | 2.5 | UCF | 1 | 7.0 | 1.12 |
| North Carolina | 59% | 3.5 | Rutgers | 0 | -19.0 | (2.08) |
| Pittsburgh | 70% | 6.5 | Houston | 2-Jan | ||
| Virginia Tech | 60% | 3.5 | Cincinnati | 1 | 16.0 | 1.30 |
| Atlantic Coast starts at 7 | 5.1 | (12.5) | – | 3.0 | 20.0 | 7 |
| – | ||||||
| Illinois | 37% | -4.5 | Louisiana Tech | 0 | -17.0 | (1.24) |
| Iowa | 37% | -4.5 | Tennessee | 2-Jan | ||
| Maryland | 15% | -14.5 | Stanford | 3-Dec | ||
| Michigan St | 50% | -0.5 | Baylor | 1-Jan | ||
| Minnesota | 29% | -7.5 | Missouri | 1-Jan | ||
| Nebraska | 37% | -4.5 | USC | 0 | -3.0 | (0.68) |
| Ohio St | 31% | -6.5 | Alabama | 1-Jan | ||
| Penn St | 35% | -5.5 | Boston College | 1 | 1.0 | 1.56 |
| Rutgers | 41% | -3.5 | North Carolina | 1 | 19.0 | 2.08 |
| Wisconsin | 32% | -6.5 | Auburn | 1-Jan | ||
| Big 10 starts at 6 | 3.4 | (58.0) | – | 2.0 | – | 8 |
| – | ||||||
| Baylor | 50% | 0.5 | Michigan St | 1-Jan | ||
| Kansas St | 51% | 0.5 | UCLA | 2-Jan | ||
| Oklahoma | 59% | 3.5 | Clemson | 0 | -25.0 | (2.32) |
| Oklahoma St | 32% | -6.5 | Washington | 2-Jan | ||
| TCU | 49% | -0.5 | Mississippi | 31-Dec | ||
| Texas | 26% | -7.5 | Arkansas | 0 | -24.0 | (1.18) |
| West Virginia | 47% | -1.5 | Texas A&M | 0 | -8.0 | (1.20) |
| Big 12 starts at 10 | 3.1 | (11.5) | – | – | (57.0) | 5 |
| Louisiana Tech | 63% | 4.5 | Illinois | 1 | 17.0 | 1.24 |
| Marshall | 72% | 7.5 | N Illinois | 1 | 25.0 | 1.26 |
| Rice | 55% | 2.5 | Fresno St | 1 | 24.0 | 1.76 |
| UTEP | 20% | -10.5 | Utah St | 0 | -15.0 | (0.58) |
| W Kentucky | 67% | 5.5 | C Michigan | 1 | 1.0 | 0.48 |
| Conference USA starts at -8 | 2.8 | 9.5 | (4) | |||
| – | ||||||
| BYU | 51% | 0.5 | Memphis | 0 | -1.0 | (1.08) |
| Navy | 44% | -2.5 | @ San Diego St | 1 | 1.0 | 1.26 |
| Notre Dame | 28% | -7.5 | LSU | 30-Dec | ||
| FBS Indep starts at -1 | 0.7 | (10.0) | – | 1.0 | 1.0 | (1) |
| – | ||||||
| Bowling Green | 48% | -1.5 | South Alabama | 1 | 5.0 | 1.30 |
| C Michigan | 33% | -5.5 | W Kentucky | 0 | -1.0 | (0.48) |
| N Illinois | 28% | -7.5 | Marshall | 0 | -25.0 | (1.26) |
| Toledo | 53% | 1.5 | Arkansas St | 4-Jan | ||
| W Michigan | 45% | -2.5 | Air Force | 0 | -14.0 | (1.36) |
| Mid-American starts at -14 | 2.1 | (15.5) | – | 1.0 | (35.0) | (16) |
| Air Force | 55% | 2.5 | W Michigan | 1 | 14.0 | 1.36 |
| Boise St | 29% | -6.5 | Arizona | 31-Dec | ||
| Colorado St | 33% | -6.5 | Utah | 0 | -25.0 | (1.40) |
| Fresno St | 45% | -2.5 | Rice | -24.0 | (1.76) | |
| Nevada | 66% | 5.5 | ULL | 0 | -13.0 | (2.06) |
| San Diego St | 56% | 2.5 | Navy | 0 | -1.0 | (1.26) |
| Utah St | 80% | 10.5 | UTEP | 1 | 15.0 | 0.58 |
| Mountain West starts at -7 | 3.6 | 5.5 | – | 2.0 | (34.0) | (12) |
| – | ||||||
| Arizona | 71% | 6.5 | Boise St | 31-Dec | ||
| Arizona St | 72% | 7.5 | Duke | 1 | 5.0 | 0.46 |
| Oregon | 80% | 10.5 | Florida St | 1-Jan | ||
| Stanford | 85% | 14.5 | Maryland | 30-Dec | ||
| UCLA | 49% | -0.5 | Kansas St | 2-Jan | ||
| USC | 63% | 4.5 | Nebraska | 1 | 3.0 | 0.68 |
| Utah | 67% | 6.5 | Colorado St | 1 | 25.0 | 1.40 |
| Washington | 68% | 6.5 | Oklahoma St | 2-Jan | ||
| Pac 12 starts at 13 | 5.6 | 56.0 | – | 3.0 | 33.0 | 16 |
| – | ||||||
| Alabama | 69% | 6.5 | Ohio St | 1-Jan | ||
| Arkansas | 74% | 7.5 | Texas | 1 | 24.0 | 1.18 |
| Auburn | 68% | 6.5 | Wisconsin | 1-Jan | ||
| Florida | 79% | 10.5 | East Carolina | 3-Jan | ||
| Georgia | 71% | 6.5 | Louisville | 3-Dec | ||
| LSU | 72% | 7.5 | Notre Dame | 3-Dec | ||
| Mississippi | 51% | 0.5 | TCU | 31-Dec | ||
| Mississippi St | 61% | 3.5 | Georgia Tech | 31-Dec | ||
| Missouri | 71% | 7.5 | Minnesota | 1-Jan | ||
| South Carolina | 54% | 2.5 | Miami FL | 1 | 3.0 | 0.94 |
| Tennessee | 63% | 4.5 | Iowa | 2-Jan | ||
| Texas A&M | 53% | 1.5 | West Virginia | 1 | 8.0 | 1.20 |
| Southeastern starts at 16 | 7.9 | 65.0 | 19 | |||
| – | ||||||
| Arkansas St | 47% | -1.5 | Toledo | 4-Jan | ||
| South Alabama | 52% | 1.5 | Bowling Green | 0 | -5.0 | (1.30) |
| ULL | 34% | -5.5 | Nevada | 1 | 13.0 | 2.06 |
| Sun Belt starts at -14 | 1.3 | (5.5) | – | 1.0 | 8.0 | (13) |
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