After the release of last week’s Pythagorean Ratings critics jumped on how Michigan could be ranked so high (#71) and Penn State could be ranked so low (#79). Luckily the two teams that were the focus on the criticism happened to be playing, leading me to comment, “Looks like all of you who commented on these two should be overjoyed at the +1.5 points you get for going with the Nittany Lions this weekend! Good luck.” In fact, the ratings held up and critics fell silent as Michigan beat Penn State 18-13, leading to the new rankings and scoreboard for all 128 teams below.
The first line reveals that the new 89th ranked team is Air Force of the Mountain West Conference (MWC). They lost 16-32 to Utah State this week after a projected spread of -3.1. Because their 16-point loss was worst than the spread, their dropped by -2.4 points, meaning that now if they played the other 127 teams their projected average score would be a 29.6-38.6 loss, and they would win 32.8% of their games.
Paragraph for the stat nerds only: The amount of the improvement of a team’s projected score each week is determined by the square root of their margin of victory (-4.0 for Air Force this week) minus the square root of their spread before the game (-1.6 for Air Force -3.1 spread this week) to get the total improvement (-2.4 for Air Force). Neither figure can be greater than 5.0 or lower than -5.0 – or a 25-point margin. Once the average offensive and defensive scoring figure is adjusted, the winning percentage is determined by taking both to the power of 2.7 and then dividing the resultant offensive figure by the sum of the offensive and defensive factors.
Here are all 128 teams in alphabetical order:
| Now | Team | Conf | Score | Opp | Spread | Improve | Off | Def | New% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | Air Force | MWC | 16-32 | Utah St | -3.1 | -2.4 | 29.6 | 38.6 | 32.8% |
| 102 | Akron | MAC | 29-19 | Miami OH | 20.5 | -1.4 | 19.6 | 29.3 | 25.3% |
| 6 | Alabama | SEC | 14-13 | Arkansas | 7.9 | -1.8 | 39.4 | 16.6 | 91.2% |
| 123 | Appalachian St | SBC v FCS | 48-55 | Liberty | -14.0 | 2.7 | 15.7 | 40.4 | 7.2% |
| 37 | Arizona | P12 | 26-28 | USC | -8.4 | 1.5 | 32.9 | 23.4 | 71.5% |
| 41 | Arizona St | P12 | idle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 34.7 | 26.0 | 68.6% | |
| 19 | Arkansas | SEC | 13-14 | Alabama | -7.9 | 1.8 | 36.9 | 20.9 | 82.2% |
| 85 | Arkansas St | SBC | 52-10 | Georgia St | 18.7 | 0.7 | 23.5 | 30.0 | 34.1% |
| 113 | Army | Ind vs CUSA | 21-41 | Rice | -6.1 | -2.0 | 24.8 | 42.5 | 18.9% |
| 10 | Auburn | SEC | 23-38 | Mississippi St | 2.2 | -5.2 | 44.2 | 22.9 | 85.6% |
| 109 | Ball St | MAC | 42-38 | W Michigan | 10.4 | -1.2 | 20.5 | 33.7 | 20.7% |
| 4 | Baylor | B12 | 61-58 | TCU | 9.2 | -1.3 | 51.1 | 20.1 | 92.5% |
| 57 | Boise St | MWC | idle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.3 | 27.3 | 57.0% | |
| 43 | Boston College | ACC | 30-14 | NC State | -1.0 | 5.0 | 35.9 | 27.6 | 67.1% |
| 76 | Bowling Green | MAC | 31-13 | Ohio | -2.2 | 5.7 | 20.6 | 23.1 | 42.5% |
| 124 | Buffalo | MAC | 27-37 | E Michigan | -0.5 | -2.5 | 14.7 | 40.8 | 6.0% |
| 52 | BYU | Ind v AAC | 24-31 | UCF | 9.9 | -4.1 | 33.9 | 29.8 | 58.6% |
| 86 | C Michigan | MAC | 34-17 | N Illinois | -17.8 | 8.3 | 23.5 | 30.2 | 33.6% |
| 82 | California | P12 | 7-31 | Washington | -7.3 | -2.2 | 29.9 | 35.1 | 39.3% |
| 88 | Cincinnati | AAC v ACC | 34-55 | Miami FL | -9.0 | -1.6 | 23.0 | 29.9 | 33.0% |
| 11 | Clemson | ACC | 23-17 | Louisville | 3.8 | 0.5 | 45.5 | 23.8 | 85.2% |
| 98 | Colorado | P12 | idle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.4 | 30.4 | 28.0% | |
| 50 | Colorado St | MWC | 31-24 | Nevada | -3.2 | 4.4 | 33.5 | 28.1 | 61.7% |
| 111 | Connecticut | AAC | 35-24 | Tulane | -9.1 | 6.3 | 19.8 | 32.9 | 20.3% |
| 32 | Duke | ACC | 31-25 | Georgia Tech | -7.7 | 5.2 | 39.4 | 27.0 | 73.5% |
| 121 | E Michigan | MAC | 37-27 | Buffalo | 0.5 | 2.4 | 17.4 | 43.4 | 7.8% |
| 25 | East Carolina | AAC | 28-17 | South Florida | 25.0 | -1.7 | 39.1 | 24.5 | 77.9% |
| 95 | FL Atlantic | CUSA | idle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.8 | 29.0 | 29.0% | |
| 47 | Florida | SEC | 27-30 | LSU | -3.2 | 0.1 | 24.3 | 19.5 | 64.4% |
| 75 | Florida Intl | CUSA | 13-16 | UT San Antonio | -7.6 | 1.1 | 25.4 | 28.3 | 42.8% |
| 1 | Florida St | ACC | 38-20 | Syracuse | 22.3 | -0.5 | 51.8 | 18.1 | 94.5% |
| 97 | Fresno St | MWC | 27-30 | UNLV | 7.9 | -4.5 | 28.5 | 40.1 | 28.4% |
| 100 | Ga Southern | SBC | 42-21 | Idaho | 20.5 | 0.1 | 20.7 | 30.3 | 26.4% |
| 8 | Georgia | SEC | 34-0 | Missouri | -5.0 | 7.2 | 43.5 | 19.2 | 90.1% |
| 126 | Georgia St | SBC | 10-52 | Arkansas St | -18.7 | -0.7 | 12.8 | 44.8 | 3.3% |
| 49 | Georgia Tech | ACC | 25-31 | Duke | 7.7 | -5.2 | 36.3 | 30.2 | 62.2% |
| 84 | Hawaii | MWC | 38-28 | Wyoming | 15.4 | -2.2 | 28.6 | 36.5 | 34.2% |
| 58 | Houston | AAC | 28-24 | Memphis | -4.4 | 4.1 | 27.6 | 25.3 | 55.8% |
| 125 | Idaho | SBC | 21-42 | Ga Southern | -20.5 | -0.1 | 16.6 | 48.9 | 5.1% |
| 71 | Illinois | B10 | 28-38 | Wisconsin | -24.6 | 1.8 | 30.8 | 33.7 | 43.8% |
| 59 | Indiana | B10 | 29-45 | Iowa | -10.4 | -0.8 | 36.3 | 34.0 | 54.4% |
| 28 | Iowa | B10 | 45-29 | Indiana | 10.4 | 0.8 | 26.6 | 17.7 | 74.9% |
| 61 | Iowa St | B12 v MAC | 37-30 | Toledo | 18.2 | -1.6 | 31.0 | 29.6 | 53.1% |
| 106 | Kansas | B12 | 20-27 | Oklahoma St | -25.0 | 2.4 | 18.3 | 29.2 | 22.2% |
| 17 | Kansas St | B12 | idle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.0 | 18.0 | 83.7% | |
| 128 | Kent | MAC | 17-40 | Massachusetts | 0.4 | -5.4 | 7.4 | 31.8 | 2.0% |
| 38 | Kentucky | SEC v SBC | 48-14 | ULM | 24.6 | 0.0 | 35.4 | 25.7 | 70.4% |
| 62 | Louisiana Tech | CUSA | idle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 34.3 | 33.3 | 52.1% | |
| 24 | Louisville | ACC | 17-23 | Clemson | -3.8 | -0.4 | 37.5 | 23.4 | 78.2% |
| 23 | LSU | SEC | 30-27 | Florida | 3.2 | -0.1 | 37.1 | 22.5 | 79.3% |
| 48 | Marshall | CUSA | 49-25 | Middle Tenn St | 9.3 | 1.9 | 41.8 | 34.3 | 62.9% |
| 27 | Maryland | B10 | idle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32.1 | 21.2 | 75.4% | |
| 115 | Massachusetts | MAC | 40-17 | Kent | -0.4 | 5.4 | 17.2 | 31.4 | 16.5% |
| 70 | Memphis | AAC | 24-28 | Houston | 4.4 | -4.1 | 27.0 | 29.5 | 44.1% |
| 35 | Miami FL | ACC v AAC | 55-34 | Cincinnati | 9.0 | 1.6 | 38.1 | 27.0 | 71.8% |
| 127 | Miami OH | MAC | 19-29 | Akron | -20.5 | 1.3 | 11.0 | 38.9 | 3.2% |
| 64 | Michigan | B10 | 18-13 | Penn St | 2.6 | 0.6 | 26.0 | 27.3 | 46.7% |
| 7 | Michigan St | B10 | 45-31 | Purdue | 19.1 | -0.6 | 31.1 | 13.2 | 91.0% |
| 78 | Middle Tenn St | CUSA | 25-49 | Marshall | -9.3 | -1.9 | 29.3 | 33.3 | 41.4% |
| 40 | Minnesota | B10 | 24-17 | Northwestern | 6.3 | 0.1 | 28.2 | 20.9 | 69.1% |
| 2 | Mississippi | SEC | 35-20 | Texas A&M | -2.2 | 5.4 | 43.1 | 15.9 | 93.7% |
| 3 | Mississippi St | SEC | 38-23 | Auburn | -2.2 | 5.4 | 40.0 | 14.8 | 93.6% |
| 33 | Missouri | SEC | 0-34 | Georgia | 5.0 | -7.2 | 35.9 | 24.7 | 73.2% |
| 92 | N Illinois | MAC | 17-34 | C Michigan | 17.8 | -8.3 | 26.0 | 35.6 | 29.9% |
| 69 | Navy | Ind v FCS | 51-14 | VMI | 25.0 | 0.0 | 27.3 | 29.5 | 44.7% |
| 74 | NC State | ACC | 14-30 | Boston College | 1.0 | -5.0 | 30.7 | 34.1 | 43.0% |
| 21 | Nebraska | B10 | idle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 34.9 | 20.4 | 81.0% | |
| 72 | Nevada | MWC | 24-31 | Colorado St | 3.2 | -4.4 | 32.0 | 35.1 | 43.8% |
| 99 | New Mexico | MWC | 14-24 | San Diego St | -13.4 | 0.5 | 24.8 | 35.3 | 27.8% |
| 120 | New Mexico St | SBC | 24-41 | Troy | -3.2 | -2.3 | 17.0 | 41.3 | 8.3% |
| 56 | North Carolina | ACC v Ind | 43-50 | Notre Dame | -22.5 | 2.1 | 32.7 | 29.2 | 57.7% |
| 90 | North Texas | CUSA | 21-56 | UAB | 6.6 | -7.6 | 25.1 | 33.4 | 31.6% |
| 55 | Northwestern | B10 | 17-24 | Minnesota | -6.3 | -0.1 | 25.2 | 22.3 | 58.2% |
| 16 | Notre Dame | Ind v ACC | 50-43 | North Carolina | 22.5 | -2.1 | 38.4 | 20.9 | 83.9% |
| 116 | Ohio | MAC | 13-31 | Bowling Green | 2.2 | -5.7 | 17.7 | 34.2 | 14.5% |
| 13 | Ohio St | B10 | idle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 40.0 | 21.3 | 84.6% | |
| 14 | Oklahoma | B12 | 31-26 | Texas | 13.9 | -1.5 | 42.8 | 23.2 | 83.9% |
| 15 | Oklahoma St | B12 | 27-20 | Kansas | 25.0 | -2.4 | 36.6 | 19.8 | 83.9% |
| 93 | Old Dominion | CUSA | 35-42 | UTEP | -5.8 | -0.2 | 29.8 | 41.2 | 29.5% |
| 5 | Oregon | P12 | 42-30 | UCLA | 1.7 | 2.2 | 46.6 | 19.2 | 91.6% |
| 53 | Oregon St | P12 | idle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.7 | 26.2 | 58.4% | |
| 81 | Penn St | B10 | 13-18 | Michigan | -2.6 | -0.6 | 24.3 | 28.2 | 40.1% |
| 79 | Pittsburgh | ACC | idle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.7 | 33.8 | 41.3% | |
| 73 | Purdue | B10 | 31-45 | Michigan St | -19.1 | 0.7 | 24.9 | 27.4 | 43.6% |
| 77 | Rice | CUSA v Ind | 41-21 | Army | 6.1 | 2.0 | 26.9 | 30.4 | 41.7% |
| 51 | Rutgers | B10 | idle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 31.0 | 26.3 | 60.8% | |
| 66 | San Diego St | MWC | 24-14 | New Mexico | 13.4 | -0.5 | 26.6 | 28.6 | 45.1% |
| 87 | San Jose St | MWC | idle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 28.9 | 37.2 | 33.4% | |
| 105 | SMU | AAC | idle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.8 | 32.4 | 23.2% | |
| 110 | South Alabama | SBC | idle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.7 | 29.3 | 20.4% | |
| 22 | South Carolina | SEC | idle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 35.3 | 21.1 | 80.1% | |
| 94 | South Florida | AAC | 17-28 | East Carolina | -25.0 | 1.7 | 22.3 | 30.9 | 29.3% |
| 122 | Southern Miss | CUSA | idle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.3 | 44.4 | 7.3% | |
| 9 | Stanford | P12 | 34-17 | Washington St | 14.5 | 0.3 | 32.3 | 16.6 | 85.8% |
| 54 | Syracuse | ACC | 20-38 | Florida St | -22.3 | 0.5 | 25.4 | 22.4 | 58.2% |
| 12 | TCU | B12 | 58-61 | Baylor | -9.2 | 1.3 | 37.7 | 19.8 | 85.1% |
| 63 | Temple | AAC | 35-24 | Tulsa | 17.4 | -0.9 | 30.8 | 31.0 | 49.6% |
| 34 | Tennessee | SEC v FCS | 45-10 | Chattanooga | 25.0 | 0.0 | 32.7 | 23.1 | 72.0% |
| 36 | Texas | B12 | 26-31 | Oklahoma | -13.9 | 1.5 | 28.7 | 20.4 | 71.5% |
| 30 | Texas A&M | SEC | 20-35 | Mississippi | 2.2 | -5.4 | 45.4 | 30.6 | 74.4% |
| 114 | Texas St | SBC | idle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.4 | 32.7 | 17.6% | |
| 60 | Texas Tech | B12 | 34-37 | West Virginia | -9.3 | 1.4 | 32.9 | 31.0 | 54.0% |
| 91 | Toledo | MAC v B12 | 30-37 | Iowa St | -18.2 | 1.7 | 26.8 | 36.5 | 30.3% |
| 108 | Troy | SBC | 41-24 | New Mexico St | 3.2 | 2.3 | 21.6 | 35.4 | 20.9% |
| 119 | Tulane | AAC | 24-35 | Connecticut | 9.1 | -6.3 | 14.8 | 31.3 | 11.6% |
| 107 | Tulsa | AAC | 24-35 | Temple | -17.4 | 0.9 | 23.7 | 38.4 | 21.5% |
| 67 | UAB | CUSA | 56-21 | North Texas | -6.6 | 7.6 | 38.0 | 41.0 | 44.9% |
| 45 | UCF | AAC v Ind | 31-24 | BYU | -9.9 | 4.1 | 32.8 | 25.6 | 66.1% |
| 26 | UCLA | P12 | 30-42 | Oregon | -1.7 | -2.2 | 32.5 | 20.8 | 76.9% |
| 117 | ULL | SBC | idle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.2 | 33.1 | 14.5% | |
| 118 | ULM | SBC v SEC | 14-48 | Kentucky | -24.6 | 0.0 | 15.8 | 31.0 | 14.0% |
| 101 | UNLV | MWC | 30-27 | Fresno St | -7.9 | 4.5 | 20.4 | 30.3 | 25.5% |
| 18 | USC | P12 | 28-26 | Arizona | 8.4 | -1.5 | 36.9 | 20.5 | 82.9% |
| 68 | UT San Antonio | CUSA | 16-13 | Florida Intl | 7.6 | -1.0 | 26.2 | 28.4 | 44.7% |
| 29 | Utah | P12 | idle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.7 | 22.7 | 74.4% | |
| 44 | Utah St | MWC | 34-16 | Air Force | 3.1 | 2.5 | 21.7 | 15.9 | 69.8% |
| 83 | UTEP | CUSA | 42-35 | Old Dominion | 5.8 | 0.2 | 29.0 | 36.8 | 34.4% |
| 96 | Vanderbilt | SEC v FCS | 21-20 | Charleston So | 16.0 | -3.0 | 20.0 | 28.2 | 28.5% |
| 46 | Virginia | ACC | idle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 34.7 | 27.7 | 64.7% | |
| 42 | Virginia Tech | ACC | idle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 31.3 | 24.0 | 67.2% | |
| 65 | W Kentucky | CUSA | idle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32.3 | 34.1 | 46.3% | |
| 112 | W Michigan | MAC | 38-42 | Ball St | -10.4 | 1.2 | 20.4 | 34.2 | 19.9% |
| 103 | Wake Forest | ACC | 17.0 | 25.9 | 24.3% | ||||
| 31 | Washington | P12 | 31-7 | California | 7.3 | 2.2 | 28.3 | 19.1 | 74.3% |
| 80 | Washington St | P12 | 17-34 | Stanford | -14.5 | -0.3 | 25.0 | 29.0 | 40.1% |
| 39 | West Virginia | B12 | 37-34 | Texas Tech | 9.3 | -1.3 | 40.3 | 29.8 | 69.3% |
| 20 | Wisconsin | B10 | 38-28 | Illinois | 24.6 | -1.8 | 32.6 | 18.7 | 81.6% |
| 104 | Wyoming | MWC | 28-38 | Hawaii | -15.4 | 2.2 | 26.9 | 41.7 | 23.5% |
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