Upsets, Nailbiters, and Headscratchers Highlight Insane Week 6 in College Football

Upsets by Arizona, TCU, Mississippi, Utah State, and Mississippi State put the exclamation point on the craziest few days in recent college football history. 

Breitbart Sports’ simplified scoreboard lists all 128 teams alphabetically. There is a row for each team. For example, the items in the third row below shows that based on the new Pythagorean Ratings Alabama ranks as the new 6th-best team, they played an SEC game, lost 17-23, had a spread of +2 based on our ratings coming into the game, and drops -3.80 points on their projected spread due to the loss. It is now projected that the Tide would beat the average FBS team 38-18 and win 89% of their games, and their last opponent was Mississippi.

Some ratings system basically treat all points scored and allowed as equal. The Pythagorean Ratings put a huge weight on the crucial points needed to win. For example, Mississippi intercepted a pass at the end of their win over Alabama to deny seven points and turn a one-point Alabama win into a six-point Mississippi win, while Ohio State intercepted a pass late in the game against Maryland to increase the final margin to 52-24. In some systems, both of these plays helped their team’s rating by seven points.

This system measures that Alabama was favored by two in this system (square root +1.4) and instead lost by six (square root -2.4) so drops 3.8 points in the ratings. Meanwhile, Ohio State already had the highest rating allowed in this system of +5 (win by 25 or more points) and so the extra late touchdown does not add to their excellent rating for the game. Even if the pick six had taken them from an 18-point win to a 25-point win, it would have improved their rating by less than a point (increased the square foot from just over 4 to 5). Here are the results for all 128 teams.

Rnk	Teams	Conf	Score	Spr	Improve	Off	Def	Win%	Last Opp.
68	Air Force	MWC v. Ind	30 – 21	-2	4.52	33	35	46%	Navy
93	Akron	MAC	31 – 6	22	0.30	20	28	29%	E Michigan
6	Alabama	SEC	17 – 23	2	-3.80	38	18	89%	Mississippi
128	Appalachian St	SBC	21 – 47	-14	-1.27	14	42	4%	South Alabama
26	Arizona	P12	31 – 24	-23	7.47	35	21	79%	Oregon
38	Arizona St	P12	38 – 34	-16	6.02	36	26	70%	USC
24	Arkansas	SEC	idle	0	0	36	22	80%
88	Arkansas St	SBC	28 – 14	10	0.59	23	30	34%	ULM
92	Army	Ind v MAC	33 – 24	-4	4.93	28	39	29%	Ball St
2	Auburn	SEC	41 – 7	14	1.27	49	19	93%	LSU
108	Ball St	MAC v Ind	24 – 33	4	-4.93	21	36	19%	Army
4	Baylor	B12	28 – 7	14	0.90	49	22	90%	Texas
57	Boise St	MWC	51 – 46	5	4.74	30	28	56%	Nevada
53	Boston College	ACC	idle	0	0	33	30	57%
106	Bowling Green	MAC	36 – 35	17	-3.18	16	28	19%	Buffalo
118	Buffalo	MAC	35 – 36	-17	3.18	18	38	11%	Bowling Green
47	BYU	Ind v MWC	20 – 35	22	-8.52	37	29	65%	Utah St
96	C Michigan	MAC	28 – 10	-2	5.76	22	32	28%	Ohio
67	California	P12	60 – 59	1	3.92	32	33	46%	Washington St
82	Cincinnati	AAC	14 – 41	5	-7.25	25	30	39%	Memphis
19	Clemson	ACC	41 – 0	19	0.69	46	27	81%	NC State
90	Colorado	P12	31 – 36	-11	1.01	22	30	30%	Oregon St
60	Colorado St	MWC v. AAC	42 – 17	19	0.70	32	30	54%	Tulsa
117	Connecticut	AAC	idle	0	0	17	36	11%
48	Duke	ACC	idle	0	0	37	30	64%
124	E Michigan	MAC	6 – 31	-22	-0.30	16	45	6%	Akron
21	East Carolina	AAC	45 – 24	25	-0.42	40	24	80%	SMU
95	FL Atlantic	CUSA	10 – 38	2	-6.33	21	29	28%	Florida Intl
23	Florida	SEC	10 – 9	-9	4.00	27	16	80%	Tennessee
63	Florida Intl	CUSA	38 – 10	-2	6.33	27	27	51%	FL Atlantic
1	Florida St	ACC	43 – 3	25	0.00	52	18	95%	Wake Forest
66	Fresno St	MWC	24 – 13	-4	5.21	33	35	46%	San Diego St
100	Ga Southern	SBC	36 – 28	10	-0.40	20	30	25%	New Mexico St
16	Georgia	SEC	44 – 17	24	0.08	40	23	82%	Vanderbilt
126	Georgia St	SBC	31 – 34	-17	2.43	14	43	5%	ULL
32	Georgia Tech	ACC	28 – 17	4	1.39	40	27	74%	Miami FL
87	Hawaii	MWC v. CUSA	14 – 28	-2	-2.28	29	37	34%	Rice
74	Houston	AAC	12 – 17	-3	-0.55	25	28	44%	UCF
123	Idaho	SBC	30 – 35	-20	2.24	18	48	6%	Texas St
91	Illinois	B10	27 – 38	4	-5.40	27	37	30%	Purdue
51	Indiana	B10 v CUSA	49 – 24	6	2.58	38	32	61%	North Texas
35	Iowa	B10	idle	0	0	26	18	73%
54	Iowa St	B12	20 – 37	-18	0.13	32	29	57%	Oklahoma St
109	Kansas	B12	14 – 33	-25	0.64	17	30	18%	West Virginia
18	Kansas St	B12	45 – 13	11	1.61	33	19	81%	Texas Tech
122	Kent	MAC	14 – 17	-20	2.69	11	28	8%	N Illinois
36	Kentucky	SEC	45 – 38	-9	5.73	36	26	72%	South Carolina
58	Louisiana Tech	CUSA	55 – 3	11	1.67	35	32	55%	UTEP
17	Louisville	ACC	28 – 6	10	1.50	38	22	81%	Syracuse
28	LSU	SEC	7 – 41	-14	-1.27	36	23	78%	Auburn
50	Marshall	CUSA	56 – 14	15	1.16	41	35	62%	Old Dominion
33	Maryland	B10	24 – 52	2	-6.49	33	22	74%	Ohio St
125	Massachusetts	MAC	41 – 42	8	-3.77	13	36	5%	Miami OH
46	Memphis	AAC	41 – 14	-5	7.25	32	25	66%	Cincinnati
44	Miami FL	ACC	17 – 28	-4	-1.39	37	28	67%	Georgia Tech
127	Miami OH	MAC	42 – 41	-8	3.77	12	38	4%	Massachusetts
71	Michigan	B10	24 – 26	-11	1.83	27	29	45%	Rutgers
10	Michigan St	B10	27 – 22	3	0.50	30	15	87%	Nebraska
73	Middle Tenn St	CUSA	37 – 31	25	-2.55	30	33	44%	Southern Miss
40	Minnesota	B10	idle	0	0	28	21	69%
5	Mississippi	SEC	23 – 17	-2	3.80	41	19	90%	Alabama
3	Mississippi St	SEC	48 – 31	-8	6.86	38	16	91%	Texas A&M
14	Missouri	SEC	idle	0	0	40	21	85%
81	N Illinois	MAC	17 – 14	20	-2.69	29	33	41%	Kent
85	Navy	Ind v MWC	21 – 30	2	-4.52	25	32	34%	Air Force
62	NC State	ACC	0 – 41	-19	-0.69	33	32	52%	Clemson
20	Nebraska	B10	22 – 27	-3	-0.50	34	20	81%	Michigan St
59	Nevada	MWC	46 – 51	-5	-4.74	35	32	55%	Boise St
98	New Mexico	MWC v CUSA	21 – 9	-20	7.92	26	37	27%	UT San Antonio
119	New Mexico St	SBC	28 – 36	-10	0.40	18	40	11%	Ga Southern
75	North Carolina	ACC	17 – 34	0	-4.54	29	32	43%	Virginia Tech
77	North Texas	CUSA v B10	24 – 49	-6	-2.58	28	31	42%	Indiana
34	Northwestern	B10	20 – 14	-11	5.71	28	19	73%	Wisconsin
9	Notre Dame	Ind v P12	17 – 14	6	-0.78	40	19	88%	Stanford
111	Ohio	MAC	10 – 28	2	-5.76	18	34	14%	C Michigan
11	Ohio St	B10	52 – 24	-2	6.49	42	21	87%	Maryland
13	Oklahoma	B12	33 – 37	13	-5.67	43	21	87%	TCU
12	Oklahoma St	B12	37 – 20	18	-0.13	38	19	87%	Iowa St
97	Old Dominion	CUSA	14 – 56	-15	-1.16	29	42	28%	Marshall
7	Oregon	P12	24 – 31	23	-7.47	45	21	89%	Arizona
56	Oregon St	P12	36 – 31	11	-1.01	29	27	56%	Colorado
79	Penn St	B10	idle	0	0	25	28	41%
72	Pittsburgh	ACC	19 – 24	-14	1.51	30	33	44%	Virginia
69	Purdue	B10	38 – 27	-4	5.40	25	27	46%	Illinois
76	Rice	CUSA v. MWC	28 – 14	2	2.28	27	30	42%	Hawaii
55	Rutgers	B10	26 – 24	11	-1.83	30	27	57%	Michigan
86	San Diego St	MWC	13 – 24	4	-5.21	24	31	34%	Fresno St
83	San Jose St	MWC	33 – 10	8	1.95	30	36	37%	UNLV
102	SMU	AAC	24 – 45	-25	0.42	21	32	24%	East Carolina
103	South Alabama	SBC	47 – 21	14	1.27	18	29	23%	Appalachian St
29	South Carolina	SEC	38 – 45	9	-5.73	34	22	77%	Kentucky
114	South Florida	AAC	idle	0	0	17	35	13%
121	Southern Miss	CUSA	31 – 37	-25	2.55	19	43	9%	MTSU
15	Stanford	P12 v. Ind	14 – 17	-6	0.78	32	17	84%	Notre Dame
61	Syracuse	ACC	6 – 28	-10	-1.50	24	23	53%	Louisville
8	TCU	B12	37 – 33	-13	5.67	37	18	88%	Oklahoma
70	Temple	AAC	idle	0	0	30	32	46%
43	Tennessee	SEC	9 – 10	9	-4.00	33	25	67%	Florida
45	Texas	B12	7 – 28	-14	-0.90	27	21	67%	Baylor
22	Texas A&M	SEC	31 – 48	8	-6.86	49	29	80%	Mississippi St
112	Texas St	SBC	35 – 30	20	-2.24	17	34	14%	Idaho
65	Texas Tech	B12	13 – 45	-11	-1.61	31	32	48%	Kansas St
99	Toledo	MAC	20 – 19	4	-0.89	26	38	26%	W Michigan
120	Troy	SBC	idle	0	0	18	40	10%
104	Tulane	AAC	idle	0	0	18	28	23%
107	Tulsa	AAC v MWC	17 – 42	-19	-0.70	23	39	19%	Colorado St
78	UAB	CUSA	42 – 39	-19	6.05	37	42	42%	W Kentucky
52	UCF	AAC	17 – 12	3	0.55	31	27	58%	Houston
25	UCLA	P12	28 – 30	14	-5.14	33	20	79%	Utah
116	ULL	SBC	34 – 31	17	-2.43	16	34	11%	Georgia St
115	ULM	SBC	14 – 28	-10	-0.59	16	31	13%	Arkansas St
113	UNLV	MWC	10 – 33	-8	-1.95	17	34	14%	San Jose St
30	USC	P12	34 – 38	16	-6.02	35	23	76%	Arizona St
94	UT San Antonio	CUSA v MWC	9 – 21	20	-7.92	23	32	29%	New Mexico
31	Utah	P12	30 – 28	-14	5.14	34	23	75%	UCLA
42	Utah St	MWC v Ind	35 – 20	-22	8.52	21	16	68%	BYU
89	UTEP	CUSA	3 – 55	-11	-1.67	28	38	31%	Louisiana Tech
84	Vanderbilt	SEC	17 – 44	-24	-0.08	21	27	36%	Georgia
49	Virginia	ACC	24 – 19	14	-1.51	35	28	64%	Pittsburgh
41	Virginia Tech	ACC	34 – 17	0	4.54	32	24	69%	North Carolina
64	W Kentucky	CUSA	39 – 42	19	-6.05	33	33	50%	UAB
110	W Michigan	MAC	19 – 20	-4	0.89	18	34	15%	Toledo
101	Wake Forest	ACC	3 – 43	-25	0.00	18	26	25%	Florida St
39	Washington	P12	idle	0	0	27	20	69%
80	Washington St	P12	59 – 60	-1	-3.92	26	29	41%	California
37	West Virginia	B12	33 – 14	25	-0.64	41	29	71%	Kansas
27	Wisconsin	B10	14 – 20	11	-5.71	32	20	78%	Northwestern
105	Wyoming	MWC	idle	0	0	26	43	20%