Florida State vs. Oregon and a rematch of last year’s Sugar Bowl would be the first semifinal playoff games in college football history if the Pythagorean Ratings stayed the same and were followed. It is highly likely that play within the SEC (7 of top 14 teams), Big 12 (3), Pac-12 (1) and ACC (2 plus half member Notre Dame) will determine the four final teams.

The Big Ten champion or an undefeated East Carolina team would seem the only other long shots, but the top teams outside of those four conferences probably will not have the chance to win enough games to get to the semifinals even if they win out.

The Big Ten would argue for the winner of the October 4 Nebraska at Michigan State game if that team went undefeated, including wins over two other top 30 teams (Wisconsin and Ohio State–each plays one in the regular season and could meet the other in the Big Ten title). A sentimental case would be made if Penn State went undefeated, but the case for all three would be tough with all of the early big game losses by the Big Ten before their good Week 4 results.

East Carolina (19th place) of the American Athletic could also make a case if they go undefeated after shocking Virginia Tech, destroying North Carolina and almost upsetting South Carolina. To have a chance Cincinnati would need to beat Ohio State Saturday and then lose to ECU, which would also have to beat a tough Central Florida team in the season finale. The problem for ECU is it would be next to impossible for a non-Power 5 team to make it with one loss, and with Louisville leaving for the ACC a year early, the conference only has 11 teams and thus cannot have a conference championship until next season. It is likely the ECU vs. Central Florida season finale will simply get the New Year’s Day Bowl reserved for the top champion of the five non-Power Conferences.

The headings indicate that Florida State is in 1st, did not improve any spots from last week, would project by an average margin of 54-16 if they played the other 127 FBS teams, and they would win 97% of those games.

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Rnk Improve Teams Conf Offense Defense Proj W%
1 0 Florida St ACC 54 16 97%
2 0 Oklahoma B12 46 18 94%
3 0 Alabama SEC 40 15 94%
4 2 Oregon P12 46 19 92%
5 0 Auburn SEC 47 20 91%
6 4 Texas A&M SEC 54 24 90%
7 0 Oklahoma St B12 39 18 89%
8 1 Mississippi SEC 41 19 89%
9 5 Notre Dame Ind 40 19 88%
10 2 South Carolina SEC 38 19 87%
11 2 Baylor B12 47 24 87%
12 8 Mississippi St SEC 35 18 86%
13 5 Louisville ACC 40 21 86%
14 -3 Georgia SEC 41 22 86%
15 2 Clemson ACC 47 25 85%
16 -12 Missouri SEC 39 21 85%
17 2 USC P12 37 20 84%
18 -3 Stanford P12 31 18 83%
19 15 East Carolina AAC 40 23 82%
20 -4 Michigan St B10 28 16 82%
21 0 BYU Ind 42 24 82%
22 -14 LSU SEC 37 22 81%
23 -1 TCU B12 34 21 79%
24 12 Nebraska B10 33 21 77%
25 0 Wisconsin B10 31 20 77%
26 17 Georgia Tech ACC 40 26 77%
27 11 UCLA P12 32 21 76%
28 3 Boston College ACC 38 25 75%
29 -12 Ohio St B10 38 25 75%
30 3 Arkansas SEC 35 23 75%
31 14 Utah P12 34 23 75%
32 -5 Washington P12 28 19 74%
33 -3 Tennessee SEC 34 24 73%
34 4 Duke ACC 39 27 73%
35 -7 Kansas St B12 30 22 73%
36 7 Virginia ACC 37 26 72%
37 -6 Arizona St P12 36 26 72%
38 -2 Texas B12 27 20 72%
39 3 West Virginia B12 41 29 72%
40 -6 Miami FL ACC 38 27 72%
41 5 Kentucky SEC 35 27 68%
42 -19 Virginia Tech ACC 31 24 67%
43 6 Florida SEC 24 19 66%
44 -5 Syracuse ACC 26 21 65%
45 -21 Pittsburgh ACC 35 28 65%
46 2 Arizona P12 31 25 64%
47 3 Marshall CUSA 42 34 64%
48 3 UT San Antonio CUSA 30 25 64%
49 14 Maryland B10 29 24 63%
50 3 Cincinnati AAC 30 25 62%
51 1 Oregon St P12 30 26 61%
52 -5 Navy Ind 31 26 61%
53 1 Boise St MWC 31 27 61%
54 1 UCF AAC 31 27 59%
55 1 Iowa St B12 32 29 58%
56 -11 North Carolina ACC 33 29 58%
57 10 Indiana B10 37 33 58%
58 1 NC State ACC 34 31 57%
59 -19 Louisiana Tech CUSA 35 32 57%
60 16 Iowa B10 23 21 56%
61 -4 W Kentucky CUSA 34 32 56%
62 -2 North Texas CUSA 30 29 53%
63 21 Memphis AAC 28 28 51%
64 -6 Penn St B10 26 26 50%
65 -3 UAB CUSA 39 40 49%
66 -1 Nevada MWC 33 34 48%
67 -1 Houston AAC 26 27 48%
68 0 Texas Tech B12 31 33 47%
69 -5 N Illinois MAC 30 32 47%
70 -1 San Diego St MWC 27 28 46%
71 12 Washington St P12 26 28 46%
72 -2 California P12 31 34 45%
73 21 Old Dominion CUSA 34 37 44%
74 -1 Temple AAC 29 33 44%
75 6 Rutgers B10 27 30 43%
76 -5 Michigan B10 26 29 43%
77 -16 Middle Tenn St CUSA 29 33 42%
78 -4 Rice CUSA 27 30 42%
79 -2 UTEP CUSA 30 36 39%
80 -2 Hawaii MWC 30 36 38%
81 -1 Colorado St MWC 28 34 38%
82 -3 FL Atlantic CUSA 22 27 38%
83 -11 San Jose St MWC 30 36 37%
84 -2 Utah St MWC 16 20 37%
85 -10 Minnesota B10 22 27 37%
86 2 Vanderbilt SEC 21 27 35%
87 -2 Fresno St MWC 30 38 35%
88 -2 Arkansas St SBC 23 30 32%
89 1 Army Ind 29 39 30%
90 1 Tulane AAC 19 27 30%
91 -4 Illinois B10 27 38 29%
92 1 Tulsa AAC 26 36 29%
93 -1 Bowling Green MAC 18 26 28%
94 9 Wake Forest ACC 18 26 28%
95 -6 Ball St MAC 23 33 27%
96 17 Ga Southern SBC 21 30 27%
97 -2 Colorado P12 21 31 26%
98 -2 SMU AAC 21 32 26%
99 2 Toledo MAC 25 38 24%
100 -1 Air Force MWC 27 41 24%
101 -4 Florida Intl CUSA 21 33 24%
102 16 Purdue B10 20 32 22%
103 -3 Northwestern B10 18 29 21%
104 1 Wyoming MWC 26 43 21%
105 -3 C Michigan MAC 20 34 20%
106 1 Kansas B12 17 30 19%
107 -3 ULM SBC 17 30 18%
108 -10 South Alabama SBC 17 30 18%
109 -3 UNLV MWC 18 33 17%
110 6 New Mexico MWC 22 40 16%
111 -3 Ohio MAC 18 34 15%
112 -1 Connecticut AAC 18 35 14%
113 -4 ULL SBC 17 33 14%
114 -2 South Florida AAC 17 35 13%
115 6 W Michigan MAC 17 35 13%
116 -6 Akron MAC 16 33 12%
117 -2 Texas St SBC 16 35 11%
118 -4 New Mexico St SBC 18 40 10%
119 0 Southern Miss CUSA 18 43 9%
120 -3 Massachusetts MAC 14 35 8%
121 -1 Troy SBC 17 42 8%
122 0 Buffalo MAC 16 40 8%
123 1 E Michigan MAC 16 45 6%
124 1 Idaho SBC 17 48 6%
125 -2 Kent MAC 10 29 5%
126 0 Appalachian St SBC 14 42 5%
127 0 Georgia St SBC 13 45 3%
128 0 Miami OH MAC 10 40 2%