Week 5 Rankings: SEC, Big 12, Pac-12, ACC Should Determine Playoffs

Florida State vs. Oregon and a rematch of last year’s Sugar Bowl would be the first semifinal playoff games in college football history if the Pythagorean Ratings stayed the same and were followed. It is highly likely that play within the SEC (7 of top 14 teams), Big 12 (3), Pac-12 (1) and ACC (2 plus half member Notre Dame) will determine the four final teams.

The Big Ten champion or an undefeated East Carolina team would seem the only other long shots, but the top teams outside of those four conferences probably will not have the chance to win enough games to get to the semifinals even if they win out.

The Big Ten would argue for the winner of the October 4 Nebraska at Michigan State game if that team went undefeated, including wins over two other top 30 teams (Wisconsin and Ohio State–each plays one in the regular season and could meet the other in the Big Ten title). A sentimental case would be made if Penn State went undefeated, but the case for all three would be tough with all of the early big game losses by the Big Ten before their good Week 4 results.

East Carolina (19th place) of the American Athletic could also make a case if they go undefeated after shocking Virginia Tech, destroying North Carolina and almost upsetting South Carolina. To have a chance Cincinnati would need to beat Ohio State Saturday and then lose to ECU, which would also have to beat a tough Central Florida team in the season finale. The problem for ECU is it would be next to impossible for a non-Power 5 team to make it with one loss, and with Louisville leaving for the ACC a year early, the conference only has 11 teams and thus cannot have a conference championship until next season. It is likely the ECU vs. Central Florida season finale will simply get the New Year’s Day Bowl reserved for the top champion of the five non-Power Conferences.

The headings indicate that Florida State is in 1st, did not improve any spots from last week, would project by an average margin of 54-16 if they played the other 127 FBS teams, and they would win 97% of those games.

Rnk	Improve	Teams	Conf	Offense	Defense	Proj W%
1	0	Florida St	ACC	54	16	97%
2	0	Oklahoma	B12	46	18	94%
3	0	Alabama	SEC	40	15	94%
4	2	Oregon	P12	46	19	92%
5	0	Auburn	SEC	47	20	91%
6	4	Texas A&M	SEC	54	24	90%
7	0	Oklahoma St	B12	39	18	89%
8	1	Mississippi	SEC	41	19	89%
9	5	Notre Dame	Ind	40	19	88%
10	2	South Carolina	SEC	38	19	87%
11	2	Baylor	B12	47	24	87%
12	8	Mississippi St	SEC	35	18	86%
13	5	Louisville	ACC	40	21	86%
14	-3	Georgia	SEC	41	22	86%
15	2	Clemson	ACC	47	25	85%
16	-12	Missouri	SEC	39	21	85%
17	2	USC	P12	37	20	84%
18	-3	Stanford	P12	31	18	83%
19	15	East Carolina	AAC	40	23	82%
20	-4	Michigan St	B10	28	16	82%
21	0	BYU	Ind	42	24	82%
22	-14	LSU	SEC	37	22	81%
23	-1	TCU	B12	34	21	79%
24	12	Nebraska	B10	33	21	77%
25	0	Wisconsin	B10	31	20	77%
26	17	Georgia Tech	ACC	40	26	77%
27	11	UCLA	P12	32	21	76%
28	3	Boston College	ACC	38	25	75%
29	-12	Ohio St	B10	38	25	75%
30	3	Arkansas	SEC	35	23	75%
31	14	Utah	P12	34	23	75%
32	-5	Washington	P12	28	19	74%
33	-3	Tennessee	SEC	34	24	73%
34	4	Duke	ACC	39	27	73%
35	-7	Kansas St	B12	30	22	73%
36	7	Virginia	ACC	37	26	72%
37	-6	Arizona St	P12	36	26	72%
38	-2	Texas	B12	27	20	72%
39	3	West Virginia	B12	41	29	72%
40	-6	Miami FL	ACC	38	27	72%
41	5	Kentucky	SEC	35	27	68%
42	-19	Virginia Tech	ACC	31	24	67%
43	6	Florida	SEC	24	19	66%
44	-5	Syracuse	ACC	26	21	65%
45	-21	Pittsburgh	ACC	35	28	65%
46	2	Arizona	P12	31	25	64%
47	3	Marshall	CUSA	42	34	64%
48	3	UT San Antonio	CUSA	30	25	64%
49	14	Maryland	B10	29	24	63%
50	3	Cincinnati	AAC	30	25	62%
51	1	Oregon St	P12	30	26	61%
52	-5	Navy	Ind	31	26	61%
53	1	Boise St	MWC	31	27	61%
54	1	UCF	AAC	31	27	59%
55	1	Iowa St	B12	32	29	58%
56	-11	North Carolina	ACC	33	29	58%
57	10	Indiana	B10	37	33	58%
58	1	NC State	ACC	34	31	57%
59	-19	Louisiana Tech	CUSA	35	32	57%
60	16	Iowa	B10	23	21	56%
61	-4	W Kentucky	CUSA	34	32	56%
62	-2	North Texas	CUSA	30	29	53%
63	21	Memphis	AAC	28	28	51%
64	-6	Penn St	B10	26	26	50%
65	-3	UAB	CUSA	39	40	49%
66	-1	Nevada	MWC	33	34	48%
67	-1	Houston	AAC	26	27	48%
68	0	Texas Tech	B12	31	33	47%
69	-5	N Illinois	MAC	30	32	47%
70	-1	San Diego St	MWC	27	28	46%
71	12	Washington St	P12	26	28	46%
72	-2	California	P12	31	34	45%
73	21	Old Dominion	CUSA	34	37	44%
74	-1	Temple	AAC	29	33	44%
75	6	Rutgers	B10	27	30	43%
76	-5	Michigan	B10	26	29	43%
77	-16	Middle Tenn St	CUSA	29	33	42%
78	-4	Rice	CUSA	27	30	42%
79	-2	UTEP	CUSA	30	36	39%
80	-2	Hawaii	MWC	30	36	38%
81	-1	Colorado St	MWC	28	34	38%
82	-3	FL Atlantic	CUSA	22	27	38%
83	-11	San Jose St	MWC	30	36	37%
84	-2	Utah St	MWC	16	20	37%
85	-10	Minnesota	B10	22	27	37%
86	2	Vanderbilt	SEC	21	27	35%
87	-2	Fresno St	MWC	30	38	35%
88	-2	Arkansas St	SBC	23	30	32%
89	1	Army	Ind	29	39	30%
90	1	Tulane	AAC	19	27	30%
91	-4	Illinois	B10	27	38	29%
92	1	Tulsa	AAC	26	36	29%
93	-1	Bowling Green	MAC	18	26	28%
94	9	Wake Forest	ACC	18	26	28%
95	-6	Ball St	MAC	23	33	27%
96	17	Ga Southern	SBC	21	30	27%
97	-2	Colorado	P12	21	31	26%
98	-2	SMU	AAC	21	32	26%
99	2	Toledo	MAC	25	38	24%
100	-1	Air Force	MWC	27	41	24%
101	-4	Florida Intl	CUSA	21	33	24%
102	16	Purdue	B10	20	32	22%
103	-3	Northwestern	B10	18	29	21%
104	1	Wyoming	MWC	26	43	21%
105	-3	C Michigan	MAC	20	34	20%
106	1	Kansas	B12	17	30	19%
107	-3	ULM	SBC	17	30	18%
108	-10	South Alabama	SBC	17	30	18%
109	-3	UNLV	MWC	18	33	17%
110	6	New Mexico	MWC	22	40	16%
111	-3	Ohio	MAC	18	34	15%
112	-1	Connecticut	AAC	18	35	14%
113	-4	ULL	SBC	17	33	14%
114	-2	South Florida	AAC	17	35	13%
115	6	W Michigan	MAC	17	35	13%
116	-6	Akron	MAC	16	33	12%
117	-2	Texas St	SBC	16	35	11%
118	-4	New Mexico St	SBC	18	40	10%
119	0	Southern Miss	CUSA	18	43	9%
120	-3	Massachusetts	MAC	14	35	8%
121	-1	Troy	SBC	17	42	8%
122	0	Buffalo	MAC	16	40	8%
123	1	E Michigan	MAC	16	45	6%
124	1	Idaho	SBC	17	48	6%
125	-2	Kent	MAC	10	29	5%
126	0	Appalachian St	SBC	14	42	5%
127	0	Georgia St	SBC	13	45	3%
128	0	Miami OH	MAC	10	40	2%