Breitbart Sports College Football Playoff Projections: Florida State, Stanford, Michigan State, Alabama

Stanford would be the surprise team in the first college playoff if their No. 2 spot in the Breitbart Sports Pythagorean Rankings held up at the end of the season. While Oregon would project to have a wider average margin of victory (47-21) than Stanford (36-14) if each team played the other 127, the Cardinal would project to go 119-8 to earn a spot against Michigan State (118-9) while Florida State (121-6) would face Alabama (117-10). The following are the new rankings of all 128 teams.

While Oregon has a better average point differential than Stanford by four points, the Pythagorean Theorem has shown over the years in all sports that the ratio of points is more important – thus teams with better defenses tend to do better than the high scoring teams in the formula (points scored to the 2.73rd power) / (points scored to the 2.73rd power + points allowed to the 2.73rd power) = estimated wins. The estimated points scored and allowed by each team over an 127-game schedule on a neutral field against every other team was based on the Massey Ratings for offenses and defenses, with adjustments made based on other computer rankings and actual results from Week 1.

Stanford is ranked only No. 11 to start the season, and will face a big test against USC next week.

Louisville’s big win over Miami Monday night moved them into 16th place and 2nd to Florida State in the ACC, which would project to average a 31-25 win and 76 wins per team to be the fifth best conference.

The Big Ten would project to be 4th with a 32-26 average win an 80 victories.

The Big 12 and Pac-12 would both average a 35-24 win, but the Big 12 would have a fraction of an edge to project 91 wins to edge out the Big 12 with 90.

The SEC still projects at No. 1, with a 34-22 average win and 95 wins per team.

The American Athletic Conference comes in as the 6th best conference with a projected average score of a 26-30 loss, and East Carolina comes in as the top team outside the big five conferences, which would put them in line for the one New Years Day poll that goes to the top ranked champion from outside the big 5. Central Florida could have nailed down that top spot for the week, until they lost to Penn State on a last second field goal. East Carolina will have an even tougher time maintaining it as they travel to South Carolina as a heavy underdog against a team intent on coming back after a lopsided loss the Texas A&M.

Conference USA enters Week 2 ranked 7th (average 26-34 loss, 51 wins per team), followed by the Mountain West (25-34, 40 wins), Mid-American (22-35, 31) and Sun Belt (22-36, 29). 

Rnk	Team	Conf	Pts Scored	Allowed	Wins	Losses
1	Florida St	ACC	48	17	121	6
2	Stanford	P12	36	14	119	8
3	Michigan St	B10	33	13	118	9
4	Alabama	SEC	36	15	117	10
5	Oklahoma	B12	43	19	115	12
6	Oregon	P12	47	21	115	12
7	Auburn	SEC	45	21	114	13
8	Oklahoma St	B12	40	20	111	16
9	LSU	SEC	38	19	111	16
10	Texas A&M	SEC	53	27	110	17
11	Baylor	B12	49	25	110	17
12	Georgia	SEC	43	22	110	17
13	Missouri	SEC	36	19	109	18
14	Ohio St	B10	44	24	107	20
15	UCLA	P12	38	21	107	20
16	Louisville	ACC	36	20	106	21
17	USC	P12	34	19	106	21
18	Wisconsin	B10	33	19	105	22
19	Mississippi	SEC	33	19	105	22
20	Notre Dame	FBSI	33	19	105	22
21	Arizona St	P12	40	24	102	25
22	South Carolina	SEC	33	20	102	25
23	Kansas St	B12	31	19	101	26
24	Washington	P12	34	21	101	26
25	Texas	B12	33	21	99	28
26	Arizona	P12	36	23	99	28
27	BYU	FBSI	35	23	97	30
28	Nebraska	B10	38	25	97	30
29	Clemson	ACC	38	25	97	30
30	Tennessee	SEC	34	23	95	32
31	Mississippi St	SEC	30	21	93	34
32	Penn St	B10	34	24	92	35
33	Oregon St	P12	35	25	91	36
34	Iowa	B10	29	21	90	37
35	West Virginia	B12	41	30	90	37
36	Minnesota	B10	30	22	89	38
37	TCU	B12	30	22	89	38
38	Virginia Tech	ACC	27	20	88	39
39	Pittsburgh	ACC	32	24	88	39
40	Michigan	B10	34	27	83	44
41	Duke	ACC	34	27	83	44
42	Texas Tech	B12	36	29	82	45
43	Utah	P12	32	26	81	46
44	North Carolina	ACC	33	27	81	46
45	Georgia Tech	ACC	33	27	81	46
46	East Carolina	AAC	36	30	79	48
47	UT San Antonio	CUSA	30	25	79	48
48	UCF	AAC	30	25	79	48
49	W Kentucky	CUSA	37	31	79	48
50	Boston College	ACC	33	28	78	49
51	Florida	SEC	20	17	77	50
52	Indiana	B10	38	34	74	53
53	Arkansas	SEC	28	26	70	57
54	Maryland	B10	29	27	70	57
55	Temple	AAC	32	30	70	57
56	Navy	FBSI	28	27	67	60
57	Washington St	P12	30	29	67	60
58	Iowa St	B12	30	29	67	60
59	Rutgers	B10	31	30	67	60
60	California	P12	34	34	64	63
61	Arkansas St	SBC	29	29	64	63
62	Miami FL	ACC	29	29	64	63
63	Cincinnati	AAC	28	28	64	63
64	Syracuse	ACC	24	24	64	63
65	Vanderbilt	SEC	24	24	64	63
66	Fresno St	MWC	34	35	61	66
67	Marshall	CUSA	34	35	61	66
68	N Illinois	MAC	31	32	61	66
69	Boise St	MWC	27	28	61	66
70	North Texas	CUSA	25	26	60	67
71	Virginia	ACC	27	29	58	69
72	Northwestern	B10	24	26	57	70
73	Toledo	MAC	30	33	56	71
74	Kentucky	SEC	27	30	55	72
75	San Jose St	MWC	31	35	53	74
76	Colorado St	MWC	29	33	53	74
77	Ball St	MAC	29	33	53	74
78	Rice	CUSA	27	31	52	75
79	ULM	SBC	26	30	51	76
80	Tulsa	AAC	28	33	50	77
81	Illinois	B10	28	33	50	77
82	ULL	SBC	27	32	49	78
83	San Diego St	MWC	26	31	49	78
84	SMU	AAC	25	30	48	79
85	UAB	CUSA	33	40	48	79
86	Houston	AAC	23	28	47	80
87	Colorado	P12	25	32	43	84
88	South Alabama	SBC	25	32	43	84
89	Ohio	MAC	26	34	42	85
90	Utah St	MWC	17	22	41	86
91	Middle Tenn St	CUSA	24	32	40	87
92	Kansas	B12	21	28	40	87
93	Nevada	MWC	26	35	39	88
94	Bowling Green	MAC	20	27	39	88
95	FL Atlantic	CUSA	22	30	38	89
96	Tulane	AAC	21	29	37	90
97	C Michigan	MAC	23	33	35	92
98	NC State	ACC	22	32	34	93
99	UTEP	CUSA	25	37	33	94
100	Hawaii	MWC	25	37	33	94
101	UNLV	MWC	23	34	33	94
102	Buffalo	MAC	23	34	33	94
103	Memphis	AAC	21	31	33	94
104	Connecticut	AAC	21	32	31	96
105	Old Dominion	CUSA	29	45	30	97
106	Wyoming	MWC	24	38	28	99
107	Purdue	B10	22	35	28	99
108	Wake Forest	ACC	15	24	27	100
109	New Mexico St	SBC	25	42	25	102
110	Kent	MAC	18	30	25	102
111	Troy	SBC	22	39	22	105
112	Louisiana Tech	CUSA	20	36	21	106
113	Akron	MAC	18	33	20	107
114	South Florida	AAC	17	32	19	108
115	Army	FBSI	20	38	19	108
116	Air Force	MWC	21	40	19	108
117	Texas St	SBC	18	35	18	109
118	Ga Southern	SBC	18	36	17	110
119	New Mexico	MWC	19	43	13	114
120	Southern Miss	CUSA	18	42	12	115
121	Appalachian St	SBC	17	40	11	116
122	Idaho	SBC	18	44	10	117
123	Georgia St	SBC	17	42	10	117
124	W Michigan	MAC	17	42	10	117
125	E Michigan	MAC	18	46	9	118
126	Florida Intl	CUSA	13	35	8	119
127	Miami OH	MAC	14	39	7	120
128	Massachusetts	MAC	13	37	7	120
	Average		28.8	28.8	63.5	63.5